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Mafia No Effort Mafia - ENDGAME - 20/2/2017

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Zexy

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No Effort Mafia
Idea taken from Serenes Forest taken from mafiascum.

In No Effort Mafia, you sign up to the game and don't actually have to play. You get assigned stats when you sign up (more later) that determines how good you are at certain aspects of the game and then sit back and watch as the host tries and figures this out.

Day and night phases are run as normal mechanically, with me posting votals over regular intervals until lynches, only the players have no control.

All I need from you when you're joining is to prioritise three stats:
>Accuracy: As town, this increases your chance to find scum. As mafia, this reduces the chance that you'll bus slightly.
>Persuasion: This is the stat that lets you yell at people until they join your lynch wagon.
>Towniness: Exactly as it sounds. If this stat is high you'll draw nightkills instead of votes, and if it's low you'll be crying "pls no lyncherino".

After that, I'll roll and assign the highest to your highest priority role. This determines how high that stat is and is used in several calculations.

There's nothing else you really need to do. You'll get a role PM mostly for your own amusement and then can talk in thread while I post things. Moderate shitposting is fine, but if it gets too far you need to slow it down a bit.
Also please don't claim mafia/independent (which may or may not exist) because it's less fun that way.

RULES:
1. Forum Rules and War Room Rules apply.
2. Role claiming is allowed. No quoting or screenshots of any conversation with the host, unless your role PM lists exceptions. This includes exact wincon wording and posting fake data that supposedly comes from said sources.
3. If you change your username mid-game, please state your old and new ones in-thread and mention the host.
4. Rules are subject to change. The host will make sure to mention you if that happens.
5. The day phase will last until true majority happens because of the way calculations work.
6. Outside communication is permitted although for the sake of my calculations the "game" will be running as a NOC. Please make sure to include me in any OC chats you may have during the game.
7. The most important rule. Have fun!

PLAYERS
1 @Max1996 Mafia Goon - Lynched Day 6
2 @Maniacal Engineer Mafia Goon - Lynched Day 9
3 @Elieson Vanilla Town - Endgame - WON THE GAME!
4 @Soaringdylan
Vanilla Town - Killed Night 6 - WON THE GAME!
5 @DarthWolf13 Mafia Goon - Lynched Day 1
6 @Hellcrow Vanilla Town - Lynched Day 2 - WON THE GAME!
7 @Elementar Vanilla Town - Killed Night 8 - WON THE GAME!
8 @AussieEevee Vanilla Town - Killed Night 4 - WON THE GAME!
9 @Lone_Garurumon Vanilla Town - Lynched Day 5 - WON THE GAME!
10 @Pikochu
Vanilla Town - Killed Day 5 - WON THE GAME!
11 @Soulmaster Independent Jester - Killed Night 3
12 @TheCapsFan Vanilla Town - Lynched Day 4 - WON THE GAME!
13 @Flashranite Vanilla Town - Lynched Day 7 - WON THE GAME!
14 @Enzap Vanilla Town - Killed Night 2 - WON THE GAME!
15 @Yours Truly Vanilla Town - Lynched Day 3 - WON THE GAME!
16 @jdthebud Vanilla Town - Killed Night 1 - WON THE GAME!
17 @WolfOwl
Vanilla Town - Lynched Day 8 - WON THE GAME!
18 @FinalArcadia Independent Survivor - Killed Night 7
19 @Kazekage Vanilla Town - Endgame - WON THE GAME!

SUBS We don't need those :p

SPECTATORS
 
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Just please remember to send me the priority lists sooner or later.

Also this is the only kind of game we can get ME to sign up for, it seems like :p
 
Calculations
For determining your three main stats, an RNG from 1 to 15 will be used. Your highest rand will be used for your first priority and so on for middle and low.
Example; a game of 5 players, A-D Vanilla Town, E Mafia Goon. Stat order is A P T

A 7 4 10
B 5 14 10
C 8 6 2
D 13 7 14
E 6 12 13

A more important stat than towniness, in practice, is scumminess. Scumminess is equal to (15 - Towniness).
As Day 1 comes, each player interaction A->B will get a Vote Probability Quotient (VPQ). For A->B town->town or scum->town, it is equal to B's Scumminess. This means townies with towniness of 15 can't be lynched. For A->B town->scum it is equal to B's Scumminess + A's Accuracy, while for A->B scum->scum it is equal to B's Scumminess - A's Accuracy, or zero if this is negative. This means that scum with 15 towniness can still be lynched but never bussed (for the sake of fairness) and scum with 15 accuracy will never bus. The VPQs from A to each player will be summed and ranges equal to each VPQ will correspond to A voting the respective player after a single RNG between 1 and the sum.

A->B: 5
A->C: 13
A->D: 1
A->E: 9
sum:28
roll 1-5: if 1-5 , A votes B, if 6-18, A votes C, if 19 A votes D, if 20-28, A votes E.
roll is 11; A votes C

Skipping the next 4 rands for the sake of simplicity

VOTE COUNT- DAY 1, RAND 1

C: A, B
B: C, E
E: D

Rand 2: D has to switch wagons in order for majority to be achieved; we assume that all other players pretty much force them to, so the others stay set (it wouldn't be this simple with more players).
In any case, this is where Persuasion comes into play. For each possibility D has, D->C and D->B, a Vote Change Probability Quotient (VCPQ) is calculated:
VCPQ = (sum of the Persuasion of all the players in the wagon) * VPQ.

D->C: 234
D->B: 100
sum: 334
roll 1-334; if 1-234 D votes C, if 235-334 D votes B
roll is 116, D votes C, C is lynched, Vanilla Town. It would indeed be very unlikely for C to not get lynched with a Towniness of 2 when everyone else has above 10.

NIGHT 1

E decides on who to kill among A, B, D based on their Towniness (essentially a Nightkill Probability Quotient):
A: 10 B: 10 D: 14 sum: 34
roll 34; if 1-10 A is killed, if 10-20 B is killed, if 21-34 C is killed
roll is 6, A is killed, Vanilla Town.

DAY 2 (Final 3 LYLO)
In this case it would be unfair to just rand everyone as usual as the last player's vote is heavily influenced by the previous ones. So we rand 1-3 where 1 is B, 2 is D and 3 is E to see who votes first; roll is 3 so it's E
VPQ (E->B): 5
VPQ (E->D): 1
roll 1-6; if 1-5 B is voted, if 6 D is voted; roll is 4, B is voted

Now B has no option other than voting E, and D's vote is the deciding one.
VPQ (D->B): 4
VPQ (D->E): 15
sum: 19 roll 1-19 if 1-4 B, if 5-19 E; roll is 8, E is voted.
E is lynched, Mafia Goon, ENDGAME! Town has won. This time the roll went against E who had a pretty good stat line up for lone mafia (as Accuracy didn't matter at all, which will not be the case in a game with at least 2 scum) yet D's Accuracy was too much for them to avoid it.

Feel free to ask any more questions on how this works. Apologies in advance if I mess some math up, mistakes happen and there are lots of rands; please remember that everything is up to luck in the end and that the game is pretty much just for fun, so bear with me.
 
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*Looks at the above post and tries to understand it*
.......
tumblr_inline_mll3j7lahE1qz4rgp.png
 
BTW @Zexy on SF we didn't PM the prioritization, we just posted it in-thread. Are you ok with in-thread A/P/T posting?
Oh, didn't remember that; I don't mind at all, you may send it in any way you wish.

Also let me remind you that mentions edited in give no alert.
 
Looks at calc.... How did anyone come up with this, awesome.
Thanks. I came up with it myself since I do not know what the calc was for the previous times this game was hosted.
 
Accuracy > Persuasion > Towniness
^~^
 
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