Roy Mustang
Hero of Ishval
- Joined
- Sep 23, 2016
- Messages
- 26
- Reaction score
- 20
Garrus was a good man, I'm very disappointed to see him go down like this. Another person to avenge...
To begin, I'd like to remove one potential suspect from the pile: myself. I was Garrus's copcheck and we had been in contact since D2. We had hoped to look like we disagreed a lot in-thread in order to avoid dying, but clearly that didn't work unfortunately. I've contacted the hosts to find out if I can post our conversation for proof and some other things since it wasn't host-started. So basically, unless you think I'm a godfather neighbor, I think it's best we work under the (correct) assumption that I am town and thus narrow down our list of suspects to 5/6 people here, making our odds 40% (2/5) of hitting scum without taking anything else into account.
Now then, some thoughts on all who remain living here.
1) Adam Stanheight - has claimed vanilla and that he contacted Yellow Guy about it early on. @Yellow Guy is this true? And to @Adam Stanheight did you talk about anything else or receive any response from our puppet friend here? And why does you being vanilla make you believe Yellow Guy? So many vanillas (and, let's be honest here, neighbors are barely anything better than vanilla too) and yet we've seen the existence of a lightning rod, which seems to me to imply that scum has to have some kind of ability. Notable actions include unvoting Lord of Trolls last phase, untying the votes as a result and allowing Mr. Saturn to be lynched. However, I find that to actually seem town-like in that Adam had to know it would reflect poorly on him if he knew Saturn was town, and a no-lynch wouldn't really have hurt scum to just let happen. In fact, it may have helped since we'd have even less to go on this phase. Additionally - while I disagree about the vanilla situation - I can kind of buy Adam being vanilla just because I have no idea who Adam Stanheight is and he seems to have no extraordinary abilities for a human, and his believing other vanilla claims seems actually looks okay to me too since it'd be fairly easy bait for scum to try to paint a "me vs them" with the claims. --- LEANING TOWN
2) Alucard. - One of the most active players here. Willing to move his vote around freely in order to get information. It was this brashness that lead me to town-read him, but I'm having some second thoughts. Jumped on the Yellow Guy bandwagon in D1 only to remove the vote fairly quickly afterward onto BlazingVulpix, who died and was town. Had some extensive back-and-forth with Yellow Guy at one point during N1; not sure if that could be faked if they're scumbuddies, and Yellow Guy's reactions sounded pretty not-planned. In D2, Alucard followed Mr. Resetti's vote and voted Garrus for indecisiveness. And yet, it took only one post from Garrus for Alucard to then unvote and follow my vote on Mr. Saturn. Basically, all of Alucard's final votes have been on town, though that definitely can happen to town just as it can scum. Interestingly, all of his votes seem to have been following other peoples' minus this phase's vote... He claims to be one of the only people making cases, but mainly he has used the reasoning of others when making his votes. Garrus had told me privately that he found Alucard suspicious for reasons like that. There's also the fact that I could see the NK on Garrus making since with scum!Alucard since a) Garrus suspected him, even in-thread and b) I think Alucard knew that Garrus wasn't really on anyone's scumlist and therefore taking him out was like killing two birds with one stone. His case on Trolls seems like taking an easy potshot, and if one is scum, I don't think the other is. --- COULD BE SCUM
3) Lord of the Trolls - By far our most inactive suspect here. His BlazingVulpix vote I actually kind of townread in hindsight given that the bandwagon had already formed at that point and I'd imagine that the kind of person who seems to avoid the thread like him wouldn't want that kind of attention of hopping on the wagon. His unvote is a little more dubious, but it is true that it drew more attention to him, so if scum wanted to avoid attention, it really may have been better to simply let the vote go and blend in with the wagon. His answers to questioning were essentially "mainly here to watch things unfold and say witty comments," and I wonder if scum would really be so flippant about that and the fact that he actually had a majority vote at one point during D2. He has never spoke up again since N1. @Lord of the Trolls what are your thoughts now? --- KIND OF NULL
4) Mr. Resetti - Started off seeming like he'd maybe be active, but instead comes and goes with few posts. Voted and unvoted (all in the same post) Mr. Saturn during early D1, but then didn't do anything noteworthy after that. His only other action of note was voting Garrus during D2, which could be construed as a Lord of Trolls defense, if you think Trolls could be scum. So all of his votes have been on town. The fact that he hardly ever posts and his case on Garrus was fairly weak and seemed tacked on makes me suspect him. --- LEANING SCUM
5) Yellow Guy - Was the victim of an early bandwagon on D1, but votes ended up moving toward Vulpix instead. Claimed vanilla immediately after my joke vote, later saying that claiming early should make it believable (which, let's be real here... that's exactly what scum would want, but the way he brought it up himself makes it sort of null). I also have no idea about Yellow Guy's history, but a quick search seems to not show any remarkable abilities, so maybe he is vanilla. Interacted a substantial amount with Alucard in N1, and again, I believe it was genuine frustration from his side. Voted Lord of the Trolls in D2 as the 3rd vote on the wagon, which gives me a town vibe. Though he does seem to be a lot more quiet when conversation has moved away from him. --- LEANING TOWN
OTHER THOUGHTS:
- I don't think that both Adam and Yellow Guy can be scum together
- Also don't think that Yellow Guy and Alucard can be scumbuddies together either
- I think the scum is likely two of the Alucard/Lord of the Trolls/Mr. Resetti bunch
I'm still trying to think things through, and I'll also wait and see if I can post my private conversation in case that can help in some way. A massclaim may help though.
To begin, I'd like to remove one potential suspect from the pile: myself. I was Garrus's copcheck and we had been in contact since D2. We had hoped to look like we disagreed a lot in-thread in order to avoid dying, but clearly that didn't work unfortunately. I've contacted the hosts to find out if I can post our conversation for proof and some other things since it wasn't host-started. So basically, unless you think I'm a godfather neighbor, I think it's best we work under the (correct) assumption that I am town and thus narrow down our list of suspects to 5/6 people here, making our odds 40% (2/5) of hitting scum without taking anything else into account.
Now then, some thoughts on all who remain living here.
1) Adam Stanheight - has claimed vanilla and that he contacted Yellow Guy about it early on. @Yellow Guy is this true? And to @Adam Stanheight did you talk about anything else or receive any response from our puppet friend here? And why does you being vanilla make you believe Yellow Guy? So many vanillas (and, let's be honest here, neighbors are barely anything better than vanilla too) and yet we've seen the existence of a lightning rod, which seems to me to imply that scum has to have some kind of ability. Notable actions include unvoting Lord of Trolls last phase, untying the votes as a result and allowing Mr. Saturn to be lynched. However, I find that to actually seem town-like in that Adam had to know it would reflect poorly on him if he knew Saturn was town, and a no-lynch wouldn't really have hurt scum to just let happen. In fact, it may have helped since we'd have even less to go on this phase. Additionally - while I disagree about the vanilla situation - I can kind of buy Adam being vanilla just because I have no idea who Adam Stanheight is and he seems to have no extraordinary abilities for a human, and his believing other vanilla claims seems actually looks okay to me too since it'd be fairly easy bait for scum to try to paint a "me vs them" with the claims. --- LEANING TOWN
2) Alucard. - One of the most active players here. Willing to move his vote around freely in order to get information. It was this brashness that lead me to town-read him, but I'm having some second thoughts. Jumped on the Yellow Guy bandwagon in D1 only to remove the vote fairly quickly afterward onto BlazingVulpix, who died and was town. Had some extensive back-and-forth with Yellow Guy at one point during N1; not sure if that could be faked if they're scumbuddies, and Yellow Guy's reactions sounded pretty not-planned. In D2, Alucard followed Mr. Resetti's vote and voted Garrus for indecisiveness. And yet, it took only one post from Garrus for Alucard to then unvote and follow my vote on Mr. Saturn. Basically, all of Alucard's final votes have been on town, though that definitely can happen to town just as it can scum. Interestingly, all of his votes seem to have been following other peoples' minus this phase's vote... He claims to be one of the only people making cases, but mainly he has used the reasoning of others when making his votes. Garrus had told me privately that he found Alucard suspicious for reasons like that. There's also the fact that I could see the NK on Garrus making since with scum!Alucard since a) Garrus suspected him, even in-thread and b) I think Alucard knew that Garrus wasn't really on anyone's scumlist and therefore taking him out was like killing two birds with one stone. His case on Trolls seems like taking an easy potshot, and if one is scum, I don't think the other is. --- COULD BE SCUM
3) Lord of the Trolls - By far our most inactive suspect here. His BlazingVulpix vote I actually kind of townread in hindsight given that the bandwagon had already formed at that point and I'd imagine that the kind of person who seems to avoid the thread like him wouldn't want that kind of attention of hopping on the wagon. His unvote is a little more dubious, but it is true that it drew more attention to him, so if scum wanted to avoid attention, it really may have been better to simply let the vote go and blend in with the wagon. His answers to questioning were essentially "mainly here to watch things unfold and say witty comments," and I wonder if scum would really be so flippant about that and the fact that he actually had a majority vote at one point during D2. He has never spoke up again since N1. @Lord of the Trolls what are your thoughts now? --- KIND OF NULL
4) Mr. Resetti - Started off seeming like he'd maybe be active, but instead comes and goes with few posts. Voted and unvoted (all in the same post) Mr. Saturn during early D1, but then didn't do anything noteworthy after that. His only other action of note was voting Garrus during D2, which could be construed as a Lord of Trolls defense, if you think Trolls could be scum. So all of his votes have been on town. The fact that he hardly ever posts and his case on Garrus was fairly weak and seemed tacked on makes me suspect him. --- LEANING SCUM
5) Yellow Guy - Was the victim of an early bandwagon on D1, but votes ended up moving toward Vulpix instead. Claimed vanilla immediately after my joke vote, later saying that claiming early should make it believable (which, let's be real here... that's exactly what scum would want, but the way he brought it up himself makes it sort of null). I also have no idea about Yellow Guy's history, but a quick search seems to not show any remarkable abilities, so maybe he is vanilla. Interacted a substantial amount with Alucard in N1, and again, I believe it was genuine frustration from his side. Voted Lord of the Trolls in D2 as the 3rd vote on the wagon, which gives me a town vibe. Though he does seem to be a lot more quiet when conversation has moved away from him. --- LEANING TOWN
OTHER THOUGHTS:
- I don't think that both Adam and Yellow Guy can be scum together
- Also don't think that Yellow Guy and Alucard can be scumbuddies together either
- I think the scum is likely two of the Alucard/Lord of the Trolls/Mr. Resetti bunch
I'm still trying to think things through, and I'll also wait and see if I can post my private conversation in case that can help in some way. A massclaim may help though.