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American Politics Thread

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Now that Bernie is out Im 99.9% sure Trump has basically been given a second term. Im seeing a lot of Sanders supporters saying they are either no longer planning to vote or just writing Bernie in come November. I plan on showing up for Biden myself because while I hugely support Bernie, its just too dangerous to not vote with another Supreme Court nominee on the line. I hope in November,people will do the right thing, but I cant not feel that we've just already lost. I guess the best we CAN hope for is people voting Blue in the Senate and House, the Senate especially. I want to see Mitch McConnel out. This whole thing has me pessimistic in general though.
 
Im seeing a lot of Sanders supporters saying they are either no longer planning to vote or just writing Bernie in come November.
I wouldn't get too hung up on the "Bernie or Bust" crowd. The primary results have made it clear their numbers are insignificant.

He's not out, though, he's still on the ballot. He's just suspended campaigning.
 
When it’s time to leave a race for public office, candidates often announce their “suspended campaign” instead of actually dropping out. Practically speaking, there is not a big difference and federal law does not define or officially recognize the act [...]
In this case, though, he's not doing it because he thinks he won't succeed, he's doing it so there's no crowds at rallies. A little different from the examples there. He's also made of point of saying he's staying on the ballot.
 
In this case, though, he's not doing it because he thinks he won't succeed, he's doing it so there's no crowds at rallies. A little different from the examples there. He's also made of point of saying he's staying on the ballot.
He’s acknowledged he has no path to victory. It’s over for him.
 
New high-quality polls from 3 major swing states today:
Biden 46-42 in Florida (Quinnipiac)
Biden 50-42 in Pennsylvania (Fox News)
Biden 49-41 in Michigan (Fox News)

National poll from Economist/YouGov has Biden up 48-42.
Still a long way to go, but right now, 2020 is looking more like 2012 than 2016.
 
I think a Biden-Warren ticket would increase support among the Bernie-Or-Bust crowd. I get that Warren isn't Bernie, but by Biden picking Warren it shows that a) he follows up on his promise of nominating a female VP and b) proves that he notices the progressive agenda and takes them seriously.

You could argue that Kamala might be a better pick, but I think Biden needs to garner support from the progressive wing moreso than increase the support he already has from African American women.

My dad thinks he's going to nominate Klobuchar, but I think that would seal his fate since she's still pretty moderate, I really do think he needs to attempt to garner support from the people on the left he doesn't have.
 
I think a Biden-Warren ticket would increase support among the Bernie-Or-Bust crowd. I get that Warren isn't Bernie, but by Biden picking Warren it shows that a) he follows up on his promise of nominating a female VP and b) proves that he notices the progressive agenda and takes them seriously.

You could argue that Kamala might be a better pick, but I think Biden needs to garner support from the progressive wing moreso than increase the support he already has from African American women.

My dad thinks he's going to nominate Klobuchar, but I think that would seal his fate since she's still pretty moderate, I really do think he needs to attempt to garner support from the people on the left he doesn't have.
IMO, Biden shouldn't bother with the Bernie-or-Bust crowd at all; they've already proven they're unreachable. Picking Warren as his running mate would require giving up a Senate seat (Massachusetts has a Republican governor who would appoint her replacement). Klobuchar presents a similar problem. If Biden's going to pick a Senator, Harris is the most reasonable choice because the special election to fill her seat wouldn't be remotely competitive.
 
New high-quality polls from 3 major swing states today:
Biden 46-42 in Florida (Quinnipiac)
Biden 50-42 in Pennsylvania (Fox News)
Biden 49-41 in Michigan (Fox News)

National poll from Economist/YouGov has Biden up 48-42.
Still a long way to go, but right now, 2020 is looking more like 2012 than 2016.

What were the polls like in 2016 at this point, though? I remember the polls showing a clear victory for Clinton.
 
What were the polls like in 2016 at this point, though? I remember the polls showing a clear victory for Clinton.
Clinton was well ahead, but Biden is much more popular now than Clinton was in 2016.
i think it's important to remember for people comparing 2016 polls to 2020 polls that clinton isn't running.
And also, Trump's awfulness as President was theoretical back then. Now it's reality.

BTW, for those wondering if Biden could win support from younger voters, a new poll has him up by 40 points among college students. Chegg Election Tracker powered by College Pulse - Media Center
 
IMO, Biden shouldn't bother with the Bernie-or-Bust crowd at all; they've already proven they're unreachable. Picking Warren as his running mate would require giving up a Senate seat (Massachusetts has a Republican governor who would appoint her replacement). Klobuchar presents a similar problem. If Biden's going to pick a Senator, Harris is the most reasonable choice because the special election to fill her seat wouldn't be remotely competitive.
Klobuchar would cost a Senate seat, but the seat would be filled in the interim by a Democrat, and in the meanwhile Biden's got the Midwest on lock.
 
@Banjo I thought Minnesota had special elections to replace Senators; maybe I'm mixing states up.

Anyway, Biden continues to poll well and it looks like that's creating a down ballot effect: Democrats are slight favorites for Senate control
I hope thats true for November. Those senators need to go. I just am really hoping people will do the right thing and vote. I admit Im starting to get curious who Biden's VP pick will be.
 
@Banjo I thought Minnesota had special elections to replace Senators; maybe I'm mixing states up.
The Governor appoints an interim Senator in the period prior to a special election being held. Minnesota can be considered a safe state for this to happen in for the Democrats: a Republican has not represented the state in the Senate for over a decade, and the last Republican to do so won after his opponent died before the election.
 

View: https://twitter.com/johnmsides/status/1258413473480036353?s=21


Looking good. Let’s keep it up.
The Governor appoints an interim Senator in the period prior to a special election being held. Minnesota can be considered a safe state for this to happen in for the Democrats: a Republican has not represented the state in the Senate for over a decade, and the last Republican to do so won after his opponent died before the election.
I'd still be hesitant. Minnesota has been trending more conservative recently. Democrats still have the advantage, but it's close enough that a Republican could win in an off-year election.
 
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