Mafia Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Mafia - Endgame (Looking Stupid Joker!)

[Kaiveran]

@Reiji this is the worst birthmas present.

You do realize that if you're town and hammer is on, we will lose the game as soon as Caps shows up?

Stop and think for a second. You seemed to vibe with my N2 casing, then you and HumanDawn converged on Caps fan, then suddenly boom – he's dead.

Does the kerfuffle toDay totally negate all my positives thus far, and if so, why? How am I a better choice than Caps in your view?

Unvote and we can talk these things out and find where the disconnect is. Hastiness is absolutely our enemy here.

 

[Kaiveran]

sigh

DEAD
FinalArcadia (Phase Skipper)
neopest (1x Strongman + Roleblocker)
HumanDawn (Doctor)
Soulmaster (Watcher)

ALIVE
DawningWinds (Cop)
Kaiveran (JOAT [Cop, Doc, Vigi])
TheCapsFan (???)
leetic! (Survivor [Piranha Joe])
Reiji (Commuter)

Ugh...even by candy-coated rainbow vomit standards, this definitely feels like too much town power.

In this situation I think it's more likely that the more powerful roles are fakeclaims, not less.
I'm having trouble coming to grips with both of the known ones though...DawningWinds would require several leaps of logic and pretty absurd overcomplication of play for a long shot result. Reiji, less so – Commuter is a pretty damn "convenient" claim as well – but thus far I haven't seen any super compelling evidence he's partnered with neo.

I believe I've made my suspicion clear on Caps, but let's see what he has to say, if it's not just a hammer.

To LWS, if this is my final post, fuck you too.

 

[Reiji]

@Reiji this is the worst birthmas present.

You do realize that if you're town and hammer is on, we will lose the game as soon as Caps shows up?

Stop and think for a second. You seemed to vibe with my N2 casing, then you and HumanDawn converged on Caps fan, then suddenly boom – he's dead.

Does the kerfuffle toDay totally negate all my positives thus far, and if so, why? How am I a better choice than Caps in your view?

Unvote and we can talk these things out and find where the disconnect is. Hastiness is absolutely our enemy here.

I don't play here often, but from what I can see there isn't a hammer on this phase - I'm basing this on the previous phase where we were asked to confirm if we wished to hammer or not.

Unvote Kaiveran I'm going to do this just to be safe, however @Elementar if you could confirm the hammer situation that would be great

 

[Kaiveran]

just saw tjis notif before I was gonna get off. i was concerned if there was because even though its 2/3 supermajority, with 5 alive that still rounds to 3

I really really need some sleep now but hopefully we can discuss more later

 

[HumanDawn]

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[Reiji]

I'm equally terrified, excited and worried.

 

[TheCapsFan]

[VOTE]: Kaiveran

I'm the tracker, and I saw Kai visit HD last night.

N1 I targeted neo, she had targeted leetic. I guess Kai made the kill.

 

[TheCapsFan]

Let's also take a look at Kai's interactions with Neo, since ey did one for everyone else;

I don’t have meta on anyone here other than the aforementioned two players, nor do I know site culture, and I won’t have time to get into either of those because I’m working this weekend. So stuff like leetic vs. neopest is gonna go completely over my fluffy little head – sorry~!

Posts/vote from neopest on P4 calls attention to DW’s hedginess but I find that’s pretty normal for less aggressive town early D1

From Kai's intro post, one indirect mention and a general mention that reads null

Thanks for the tip!

As for your next post...I'm assuming GTH implies I have to take a side? I've already given thoughts on DW, Soul and FA (all town), neopest I'd lean town at this point as well, although that's pretty low certainty...HD's eagerness can be either side, really, but I'd say wolf given they've been oddly absent since the game actually started.

Early GTH town on Neo

neopest: I'm gonna trust you on the "pressure active players" tell. I guess I would slightly townlean neo at this point but I'll say again, I don't think limiting the scope of our engagement at this point really helps.

Again, townread on Neo. Kai has not directly interacted with Neo up to this point, so this is technically their first interaction, though it is still kind of indirect since there are no mentions or quotes. I don't understand what that last part means, "limiting the scope of our engagement at this point?" Are ey trying to downplay the townread by saying again that ey haven't interacted with Neo much?

Haven't seen any votes since this one so I'm assuming this is correct. Only Soul and I huh? time to find out why

Neo was also at one vote here from FA, and the vote count was actually 2:2:1 Soulmaster:Kaiveran:neopest. With only five people voting and the two wagons tied at 2, neo was still in the running for the D1 elim at this point.

p11 seeing towniness from Reiji and neo

@neopest re:235, I don't like getting into the dirt and directly scrapping with people, usually. Sure, it can be fun and/or illuminating in the right contexts, but it's usually not very useful to me specifically, and on D1 I'd prefer cooler heads to prevail lest too much wolf-hiding dust get kicked up

oh shit it's time to go already fuck I'm so slow

Running Readsbook
leetic/neo/Reiji town
Caps/Soul/FA null
DW/HD scum

First part is a response to Neo calling em out for not being convictive in their reads. Note the post Kai refers to is not the post where Neo explicitly says "I think there's a scum amongst one of the three players with low engagement in external drama, Kai/SM/FA," rather, Kai doesn't touch that post with a ten foot pole. I can see Kai doing this to avoid a situation in which ey and Neo would have to force a more direct w/w interaction on that point.

Besides, despite eir low activity, and em being behind more than a few pages, Kai is trying to read everyone in the thread at least a little bit. Ey have kept neo in eir towncore throughout the day despite not really giving any explicit reasons, unlike with leetic and Reiji, where by this point ey have elaborated on the townreads (moreso for leetic, less for Reiji) for those two through eir posts so far.

I will stick to my guns on neo/leet being Tvt, even gover the most recent stuff it looks like they're townies that pinged each other but can't really find any smoking guns on each other no matter how hard they try

Commenting on the neo/leetic situation... I think this is odd because leetic's switch onto Soulmaster seems relatively reluctant on a reread, as if they wanted to keep pushing Neo because they were still scumreading them, but switched to Soulmaster because half the Soul voters were unlikely to return (which fits with their wincon, at that point on D1 they just wanted to look towny).

@neopest has your mind changed on HD and why?

By this point the neo/leetic stuff has continued; ey were busy at the time, however, so I wouldn't expect them to have reacted to it

neopest

Off the bat, neo displays a penchant for brevity and a blunt, nonchalant approach. As I hope we’ve learned WRT Soulmaster, these are not necessarily scummy traits.

I don’t see any glaring gaps in her engagement (i.e near silence on any particular player or event) and she’s been capable of ramping up efforts when she needs to. Combined with my judgement of the leetic spat above, I’d put her in my town pile as well…normally I’d say with a bit less confidence, but considering the EoD I’ve just lived through, and the fact that nothing brought up against her really convinced me of scum…nah

Finally, a direct read on Neo. I find the first sentence ironic, given the results we've gotten.

The townread seems reluctantly given, despite Neo being in Kai's towncore the whole day. The gaps in engagement part is a strong townpoint in Neo's favor, which they make the focal point of the read. The read itself is noncommittal due to its "lack of confidence" yet Kai, in eir posts, seems pretty confident that Neo is town throughout the day. There's not much here that justifies eir townreading of Neo throughout the day, besides the fact that she engaged with everyone which all of the players had done by this point in time.

 

[Isaac the Investigator]

Yeah, Kai definitely has the most unbelievable claim

 

[Isaac the Investigator]

And, I got one out of two right with the claims which isn't bad

 

[Isaac the Investigator]

In this situation I think it's more likely that the more powerful roles are fakeclaims, not less.

Doc/Cop/Vig JOAT is pretty powerful though, especially combined with the Cop and Doc that are known to exist

 

[Isaac the Investigator]

So it's pretty clear that we're dealing with a Caps/Kai thunderdome, since their claims are incompatible. So tell me, @Kaiveran, what were you doing at HD's last night?

 

[Kaiveran]

Yeah, it's Caps, as I suspected.

Vote: TheCapsFan

I think it's abundantly clear that I had basically narrowed it down to Reiji and Caps, and both Reiji and HD were warming up to caps. With my claim, even if he was to misdirect me on to Reiji for the ML, he still is guaranteed to lose since I shoot him the following night. The only way Caps can win now is if he MLs me. And I'm not gonna let that happen.

Keep in mind it is not at all difficult for scum to fakeclaim Tracker and drive down the ML they need to win either...hell, we practically gave him a roadmap.

Notice how he's given no previous Night's results as well.

 

[Isaac the Investigator]

Yeah, it's Caps, as I suspected.

Vote: TheCapsFan

I think it's abundantly clear that I had basically narrowed it down to Reiji and Caps, and both Reiji and HD were warming up to caps. With my claim, even if he was to misdirect me on to Reiji for the ML, he still is guaranteed to lose since I shoot him the following night. The only way Caps can win now is if he MLs me. And I'm not gonna let that happen.

Keep in mind it is not at all difficult for scum to fakeclaim Tracker and drive down the ML they need to win either...hell, we practically gave him a roadmap.

Notice how he's given no previous Night's results as well.

He has given his N1 results

So what were you doing at HD's?

 

[Kaiveran]

So it's pretty clear that we're dealing with a Caps/Kai thunderdome, since their claims are incompatible. So tell me, @Kaiveran, what were you doing at HD's last night?

Oh wait he did. Claim other nights results. Sorry, rushing to do things on phone

Still, I targeted HD. I'm not gonna change my claim just because some desperate scumbitt is lying his ass off at me.

 

[Isaac the Investigator]

The one thing I'll ask @TheCapsFan is if he saw Kai visit anyone else, since I would expect scum to have a rolecop

 

[Kaiveran]

Oh wait he did. Claim other nights results. Sorry, rushing to do things on phone

Still, I targeted HD. I'm not gonna change my claim just because some desperate scumbitt is lying his ass off at me.

DW*

Goddamn 10 second limit

 

[Isaac the Investigator]

Stuck on phone a while but can easily fullclaim thanks to the power of Gdocs

I am a JOAT.

Actions:
Night 1, Seer FinalArcadia (some fuckin’ good that did)
Night 2, Guard DawningWinds (that did some more good maybe?) Got a success notice too.

I have a Vigi left, which I am fully prepared to use on a second choice as a last stand for town. Given that a Wolf RB is already dead, plus N2 results, it’s likely to go through.

Oh wait he did. Claim other nights results. Sorry, rushing to do things on phone

Still, I targeted HD. I'm not gonna change my claim just because some desperate scumbitt is lying his ass off at me.

You have been caught in a lie. It's over.

 

[Kaiveran]

Assisted by gdocs Gods yehyeh

So now that we have all claims, let's try to put the apparent power level of the game in context.

If a Cop gets a red check, they claim to the thread, but if they’re not on the Strongman themselves, they get killed through any protection next Night. Roleblocker potentially nerfs them further.
Considering the only extra KP in the game is myself, vanilla Survivor is quite plausible.
Strongman shot means both Guard powers (HD’s and mine) are potentially no obstacle to wolves killing a crucial town role. (Not sure if Commuter trumps Strongman here)
Tracker/Watcher roles can be either town or scum.
Tracker/Watcher will also be operating in a very target-rich environment, with most results not strongly indicating alignment.

So yes, there are a few mitigating factors here, and the hosts might have also overcompensated for only 1 ML. Since Reiji has been eliminated from the "most likely liar" competition, Caps scum Tracker makes sense. He could even be claiming his role truthfully, but not alignment or results.

wolf!Caps taking the free ML option on me tracks perfectly. Not only am I the only practical barrier against his victory, but with leetic's strong start and the only available townie disbelieving my claim, and judging by several portions of his D1 (such as his nonchalant treatment of leetic), he is very confident that he'll get what he wants

Gonna have a little Christmas thing with the family but after that I'll get to the cases again at me.

 

[Kaiveran]

@leetic they both have dawn in their name. why are you so pressed about it anyways? Why would I still be analyzing? You win either way. Let more of the actual town voices come through

Speaking of which, @DawningWinds

Later