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You're overthinking it, I think. There are two distinct pieces of advice in my post. First, in your own head, you should think about why people do what they do. Even when another player questions a wagon from a "why" perspective, you should ask yourself why they would do that in this scenario...

You are right, but would it have went quite as well for you if the rest of the players followed that advice as well?

1. Analyze why someone says what they say. When trying to get a read from posts alone, always focus on why a person says the things they say. You might be tempted to say, "But they said they were mafia! That's a tell, right?" Ignore that temptation. One player saying they are mafia is not the...