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American Politics Thread

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If Catherine Cortez Masto holds on to her Nevada seat then no matter who wins in the Georgia runoff Democrats will keep the majority of the Senate, but they might have it for only two more years considering the map they'll have to deal with in 2024.
 
At least fourteen of Donald Trump's handpicked candidates are projected to have lost their election bids, according to an ABC News count -- results that have some Trump aides concerned as the former president prepares for a "big announcement" regarding his potential 2024 presidential run.

Sources close to Trump described him as "fuming" at his Mar-a-Lago estate Tuesday night as GOP candidates he had backed started to lose or underperform.

Trump was particularly unhappy as he watched two candidates he endorsed in Pennsylvania -- Senate candidate Dr. Mehmet Oz and gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano -- lose their elections. Trump had been in the state rallying for both candidates just three days earlier.


Democrats likely have former President Donald Trump to thank for their surprisingly strong midterm election results.
Trump’s endorsed candidates have severely underperformed in state after state and district after district, costing Republicans key races across the country—and likely blowing Republicans’ chances of taking Senate control. And it’s clear this wasn’t just a bad night for Republicans writ large—it was specifically a rejection of pro-Trump candidates. The gap between normie Republicans and Trump’s MAGA minions is glaringly obvious: Old-school Republicans without Trump’s baggage did pretty well last night, while many of Trump’s favorite candidates flamed out spectacularly.


The Republican Party “shit the bed so bad” on Tuesday night.

That’s how one longtime GOP strategist who worked on several high-profile 2022 races put it just hours after midnight. The operative wasn’t alone in his misery: A total of 16 Republican strategists, grassroots activists, Donald Trump confidants, and elected officials began venting to Rolling Stone Tuesday night (some completely unprompted) about the party’s disappointment midterm results. The general sentiment: The GOP had historically botched the midterms, had good reason to panic, and should feel humiliated.

“What the fuck is happening???” one veteran Republican consultant asked in the middle of the night. Other notable or recurring messages from the rest of the 16 included “holy shit,” “oh no,” a floating-dumpster-fire GIF, a sardonic “STOP THE COUNT” pronouncement, the “Hellmo” meme, “the blame games for this [are] going to be crazy,” “Not good!,” and “what a disaster.”

The shock and, at times, devastation reflect the missed expectations of the GOP elite, conservative movement leaders, and Trump’s own inner orbit. After months of crowing about the coming midterm “bloodbath,” Republicans watched as several candidates — including some MAGA favorites — were dispatched by their Democratic opponents.
 
Wait, Dr. Oz is a politician???
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mehmet_Oz#Political_career

Thankfully, only for a very brief time.

Trump is no longer gonna associate with "loser" Oz.

In more "Republicans are completely out of touch with the struggles of ordinary Americans" news:

The Republican-controlled Legislature had declined to expand Medicaid eligibility under the 2010 federal Affordable Care Act, and Gov. Kristi Noem has opposed the idea. But proponents for expansion have found success through ballot measures across GOP-dominated states, and a wide coalition of health care groups and organizations backed a well-funded ballot campaign this year in South Dakota.

“We’re a farm community, and people just can’t afford insurance so they need some more help,” said Bob Pederson, a Sioux Falls retiree who voted to expand eligibility Tuesday.

In an effort to head off the Medicaid expansion vote, Republican lawmakers had proposed a separate constitutional amendment in this year’s primary election that would have required a 60% vote threshold on ballot measures that raise taxes or spend significant government funds. That proposal was overwhelmingly rejected by voters.
 
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@Aulos I understand the anger over Michigan’s 2016 vote, believe me. But one thing to keep in mind is that state politics aren’t static, it changes over time. My home state of Louisiana was a Democratic stronghold within our lifetimes, and California used to be a reliably Republican state until the Clinton years. So there may be a chance Michigan becomes a safe blue state in the near future.

If Catherine Cortez Masto holds on to her Nevada seat then no matter who wins in the Georgia runoff Democrats will keep the majority of the Senate,
Might be a little premature. Kelly’s favored in AZ, but there’s still plenty of votes left to count.
but they might have it for only two more years considering the map they'll have to deal with in 2024.
This year’s results make me feel better about Tammy Baldwin’s chances, and maybe Sherrod Brown can work his magic one more time. But Tester and Manchin are in for the fights of their lives (assuming Manchin even runs again).
 
Everything hinges on the runoffs. Adam Laxalt is inching closer to victory and I believe that CCM should just concede now. For the second election in a row, Senate control will go down to a runoff in Georgia.
 
Election autopsies are starting to appear. Emphasis is mine:


“When elections are clearly about Trump and MAGA, MAGA will lose,” Michael Podhorzer, a progressive strategist, told me. “What Trump did was make a really large number of Americans say, ‘There’s now something really at stake in elections, and it matters more if I go out and vote.’”

Across the country, Trump-endorsed candidates underperformed. In Pennsylvania, Mehmet Oz—who owed the GOP nomination to Trump’s help—lost a Senate race to the Democrat John Fetterman, and Doug Mastriano lost the gubernatorial race to Josh Shapiro. The Republican Tudor Dixon lost a bid to unseat Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer. In Arizona, the GOP nominee Kari Lake is trailing the Democrat Katie Hobbs (although many votes remain uncounted).

Independent voters actually backed Democrats narrowly, according to exit polling. The group that the Cook Political Report’s Amy Walter calls “meh voters”—the ones who somewhat disapprove of Biden and worry about the economy—favored Democrats too. (By contrast, in 2018, when Trump was president, those who somewhat disapproved of the incumbent favored his opposition.)

One major factor behind this is abortion. Putting pro-life justices on the court was one of Trump’s central campaign promises and keystone achievements. The Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision overturning Roe v. Wade was a major factor for voters, who supported pro-abortion-rights ballot measures in five states.

Pro-abortion-rights backlash was widely expected, but the signs of pro-democracy voting were largely overlooked. Americans consistently tell pollsters that they worry about Trump’s attacks on elections and institutions. A Reuters/Ipsos poll in September, for example, found that 58 percent believe the MAGA movement is a threat to the foundations of democracy. But many observers questioned whether that would be a driving force in votes or simply too abstract to overcome economic worries.

With the votes counted, that seems wrong. Not only did election-denying candidates fare poorly, but voters told the Associated Press that the future of democracy was a top issue for them, trailing only inflation in importance. (Democrats actually won voters who said the economy was not doing well, according to AP).

The consistency of the anti-MAGA coalition, which has been a decisive factor in the 2018, 2020, and 2022 elections, should shape the 2024 election.
Its existence helps prevent large swings in results, feeding into the calcification of American politics.

This year’s results also suggest that Trumpism can motivate Democrats or Democratic-leaning voters. On the other hand, only Trump himself motivates his MAGA base—even though he has twice lost the popular vote. That poses a question to the Republican Party ahead of the next presidential primary: Should the party return to Trump, who motivates the base but is a proven loser? Or should they opt for a candidate who can appropriate Trumpism without Trump’s baggage, but who might inspire lower enthusiasm in the base?
 
A progressive grassroots organization linked to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) officially launched its “Don’t Run Joe” campaign in New Hampshire on Wednesday in a bid to dampen a 2024 White House run from President Biden.

As promised back in July, RootsAction launched the campaign just one day after the midterm elections, hoping to discourage Biden from seeking a second term.


The Democrat bench is so weak it’s a wonder who else could run? John Fetterman’s name has been tossed out for… some reason, as well as Gavin Newsom. Is there anyone else than the incredibly elderly Hillary, Biden, and Bernie?
 
Because her defeat is certain and there's no path to victory for Dems in Nevada. The Republicans made massive gains there and the state will be under full GOP control next year.
People on the ground there seem to think differently.

 


The GOP will refuse to learn any lessons from this fiasco and end up being demolished come 2024

The Democrat bench is so weak it’s a wonder who else could run?
Still stronger than what Republicans plan to bring as Trump is whining about 'Ron DeSanctimonious' right now. Trump will lose (again) to Biden due to being utterly toxic to the American people, while Ron, were he to win the primary, would have to face a vengeful and angry Trump. The GOP base will be hopelessly split.

Calling Biden "elderly" isn’t gonna work when Trump acts much more senile. Neither is pining your hopes on some New Hampshire nobodies.

 
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Networks will be a little more cautious, but we can pencil in 49 Senate seats. Now we wait on CCM’s comeback in Nevada.
 
Still stronger than what Republicans plan to bring as Trump is whining about 'Ron DeSanctimonious' right now. Trump will lose (again) to Biden due to being utterly toxic to the American people, while Ron, were he to win the primary, would have to face a vengeful and angry Trump. The GOP base will be hopelessly split.

That is extremely wishful thinking, it is very common for divided bases to come together after the convention. Hillary and Bernie are an example of that. Trump and Cruz are a very good example of that, Cruz did not even give Trump his endorsement at the 2016 GOP convention and yet his half of the base unified with Trump after the primary.

Calling Biden "elderly" isn’t gonna work when Trump acts much more senile. Neither is pining your hopes on some New Hampshire nobodies.
Biden's age will be a major factor in 2024, he would be the oldest President of the United States. In 2020 he lucked out and was able to campaign largely from his home using video chat, he will not be able to do that in 2024, and will have to endure the rigors of the campaign schedule.

Worth noting Biden has spent 40 percent of his Presidency on vacation so far, even outpacing Trump.


And of course there are... well his teleprompter skills have diminished over the years, as evident of today.

 
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That is extremely wishful thinking, it is very common for divided bases to come together after the convention. Hillary and Bernie are an example of that. Trump and Cruz are a very good example of that
Sorry, but comparing Trump to any of those other three is wayyy off base. Trump is a colossal narcissist and the world's biggest manbaby. Had Cruz beaten Trump, he would never accept losing and would cry that Cruz cheated. Which is precisely also what happened when Trump lost to Biden. Trump is the world's biggest sore loser. It's extremely wishful thinking to assume otherwise. The whole world saw Trump having constant Twitter meltdowns for 4 years. Trump cares only about himself and is loyal to no-one. Anyone who still believes that Trump cares about the GOP over himself is either severely uninformed, or deeply in denial.
Biden's age will be a major factor in 2024, he would be the oldest President of the United States.
Biden is already the oldest president of the USA. It didn't matter in 2020 either.
In 2020 he lucked out and was able to campaign largely from his home using video chat, he will not be able to do that in 2024, and will have to endure the rigors of the campaign schedule.
Trump can barely walk down a slope and is hunched like a centaur.
Worth noting Biden has spent 40 percent of his Presidency on vacation so far, even outpacing Trump.

Since when is "working from home" a vacation? I don't work on my vacations, do you? Trump set new records when it came to laziness. He spend more time on his golf course during 4 years than Obama spent on vacations during his 8 years. As usual, all the GOP pundits who whined about Obama were suddenly silent about Trump's laziness. Hypocritical lot.

Factcheck:
And of course there are... well his teleprompter skills have diminished over the years, as evident of today.
Here's Trump in 2016. He's only gotten worse since then.

"Look, having nuclear — my uncle was a great professor and scientist and engineer, Dr. John Trump at MIT; good genes, very good genes, OK, very smart, the Wharton School of Finance, very good, very smart — you know, if you’re a conservative Republican, if I were a liberal, if, like, OK, if I ran as a liberal Democrat, they would say I'm one of the smartest people anywhere in the world — it’s true! — but when you're a conservative Republican they try — oh, do they do a number — that’s why I always start off: Went to Wharton, was a good student, went there, went there, did this, built a fortune — you know I have to give my like credentials all the time, because we’re a little disadvantaged — but you look at the nuclear deal, the thing that really bothers me — it would have been so easy, and it’s not as important as these lives are — nuclear is so powerful; my uncle explained that to me many, many years ago, the power and that was 35 years ago; he would explain the power of what's going to happen and he was right, who would have thought? — but when you look at what's going on with the four prisoners — now it used to be three, now it’s four — but when it was three and even now, I would have said it's all in the messenger; fellas, and it is fellas because, you know, they don't, they haven’t figured that the women are smarter right now than the men, so, you know, it’s gonna take them about another 150 years — but the Persians are great negotiators, the Iranians are great negotiators, so, and they, they just killed, they just killed us, this is horrible."
 
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Sorry, but comparing Trump to any of those other three is wayyy off base. Trump is a colossal narcissist and the world's biggest manbaby. Had Cruz beaten Trump, he would never accept losing and would cry that Cruz cheated. Which is precisely also what happened when Trump lost to Biden. Trump is the world's biggest sore loser. It's extremely wishful thinking to assume otherwise. The whole world saw Trump having constant Twitter meltdowns for 4 years. Trump cares only about himself and is loyal to no-one. Anyone who still believes that Trump cares about the GOP over himself is either severely uninformed, or deeply in denial.

What matters is who the base chooses to rally behind after the nomination. If Trump chooses to remain quiet or fight that is his prerogative but political history points to a unified base after the convention.

Biden is already the oldest president of the USA. It didn't matter in 2020 either.

Trump can barely walk down a slope and is hunched like a centaur.

Similar to Biden tripping over his own feet on stage.



Since when is "working from home" a vacation? I don't work on my vacations, do you? Trump set new records when it came to laziness. He spend more time on his golf course during 4 years than Obama spent on vacations during his 8 years. As usual, all the GOP pundits who whined about Obama were suddenly silent about Trump's laziness. Hypocritical lot.

Factcheck:

No matter where they are a President is "working" either at Mar a Lago, West Texas, Camp David, or Delaware, the White House usually travels with them, the problem is optics of it all, as the CNN article explains. So now that Biden has gone home more than Trump, and thus set a new record, we should be talking about Biden's laziness. BTW your link is paywalled.

Here's Trump in 2016. He's only gotten worse since then.

Trump speaks usually as a stream of counsousness for good or ill, Biden has gotten to the point of engaging in "Ron Burgendy" style reading off what is written on the teleprompter. Both are bad styles. Which is why running against someone younger such as say Ron DeSantis would be a stark contrast for Biden.
 
What matters is who the base chooses to rally behind after the nomination. If Trump chooses to remain quiet or fight that is his prerogative but political history points to a unified base after the convention.
Trump isn't gonna choose to remain quiet. It's extremely wishful thinking to believe otherwise.
Similar to Biden tripping over his own feet on stage.
Anyone can trip. Trump is the one who's low energy. Sad!
The Times of London reported the six other world leaders — from Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan — walked 700 yards to take a group photo at a piazza in a hilltop town. The U.S. leader decided to wait until he could get a golf cart.
No matter where they are a President is "working" either at Mar a Lago, West Texas, Camp David, or Delaware, the White House usually travels with them,
Trump never worked a day at his golf courses. He barely worked at the White House. "Executive time" was used to describe all the time he spent binge watching Fox News and having further meltdowns.
the problem is optics of it all, as the CNN article explains.
That's funny, since the optics show Trump's fat ass playing golf.
So now that Biden has gone home more than Trump, and thus set a new record, we should be talking about Biden's laziness.
Sorry, but you don't decide what the American people should talk about. The majority of Americans are more concerned about losing abortion access.
Trump speaks usually as a stream of counsousness for good or ill, Biden has gotten to the point of engaging in "Ron Burgendy" style reading off what is written on the teleprompter. Both are bad styles.
Bad optics for Trump.
Which is why running against someone younger such as say Ron DeSantis would be a stark contrast for Biden.
Ron DeSanctimonious will lose to Biden due to a furious Trump running as a spoiler, and accusing him of cheating and much more.
 
Trump isn't gonna choose to remain quiet. It's extremely wishful thinking to believe otherwise.

Oh I do not expect him to be quiet, if he loses more than likely he will campaign for whoever the leader is. Trump will want to remain a power player and enjoy the rallies which means campaigning with whoever won the nomination.

Trump never worked a day at his golf courses. He barely worked at the White House. "Executive time" was used to describe all the time he spent binge watching Fox News and having further meltdowns.

Similar to Biden not working when he is away from the White House apparently.


That's funny, since the optics show Trump's fat ass playing golf.

All Presidents play golf.

Sorry, but you don't decide what the American people should talk about. The majority of Americans are more concerned about losing abortion access.

What does that have to do with Trump or Biden's time off?
Ron DeSanctimonious will lose to Biden due to a furious Trump running as a spoiler, and acusing him of cheating and much more.

So you believe Trump will run as a third party candidate?
 
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