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American Presidential Election Thread, 2020 Edition

Thievulpes velox
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1. Biden, meanwhile, can barely string together a sentence half the time. His speech has declined considerably since even last year, and he struggled to defend himself against the softball attacks Bernie and others launched at him in the debates. Can you imagine what it's going to be like with him on a stage with Donald Trump? It would be a massacre.

2. I think Biden is uniquely vulnerable, and I do not see a way he can shore up his vulnerabilities in such a way that Trump cannot exploit them.
1. As someone who has watched Trump speak at almost all of the daily Coronavirus Task Force briefings, I can say he doesn't scare me at all. Not like it really makes a difference; Hillary destroyed Trump in all the 2016 debates, yet here we are.

2. I’m not buying this. All of Biden’s supposed weaknesses you keep throwing out aren’t really weaknesses. NAFTA? Support for free trade is at an all-time high. The Obama administration’s deportations? Trump’s made demonization of immigrants a centerpiece of his presidency; he's not going to attack Biden for being too tough on immigration (well, he could, but he wouldn't benefit from it). Besides, all observable evidence has shown Biden to be a much stronger candidate than Sanders, who himself has plenty of problems that could easily cripple him against Trump.
 
Gather round, people, I'll tell you a story
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2. I’m not buying this. All of Biden’s supposed weaknesses you keep throwing out aren’t really weaknesses. NAFTA? Support for free trade is at an all-time high. The Obama administration’s deportations? Trump’s made demonization of immigrants a centerpiece of his presidency; he's not going to attack Biden for being too tough on immigration (well, he could, but he wouldn't benefit from it). Besides, all observable evidence has shown Biden to be a much stronger candidate than Sanders, who himself has plenty of problems that could easily cripple him against Trump.
Support for free trade may be high, but NAFTA, specifically, is a bugaboo, because people know the concrete effects it had on people’s lives. Furthermore, while obviously Trump can’t attack Biden for being “too tough” on immigration, he can paint Biden, rightly, as hypocritical should Biden try to criticize his own border policy. It’s not about plain policy, it’s about narrative, and a Biden candidacy gives Trump unlimited resources with which to control the narrative.
 
Thievulpes velox
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1. Support for free trade may be high, but NAFTA, specifically, is a bugaboo, because people know the concrete effects it had on people’s lives. 2. Furthermore, while obviously Trump can’t attack Biden for being “too tough” on immigration, he can paint Biden, rightly, as hypocritical should Biden try to criticize his own border policy. 3. It’s not about plain policy, it’s about narrative, and a Biden candidacy gives Trump unlimited resources with which to control the narrative.
1. Nobody's voting as if they actually care about NAFTA, though. As I said earlier, the working class, who were most affected by it, remain a solid Democratic voting bloc overall. It's only white working class voters who have defected. And let's be honest, they're not voting Republican for economic reasons.

2. The hypocrisy argument doesn't hold up for reasons I've already mentioned. Plus, it's not something I see Trump going for. He's much more likely to double down on defending his own anti-immigration policies since that's what plays well to his base.

3. Republicans are better at controlling the narrative, sure, but there's nothing about Biden that makes him any more vulnerable to this than Sanders would have been.

I can understand not being enthusiastic about Biden being the nominee (even I'm not excited; He was like my 7th or 8th choice), but the kind of pessimism I've been seeing from the left is unwarranted based on all the available information.
 
Thank you,Eren
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Now that Bernie is out Im 99.9% sure Trump has basically been given a second term. Im seeing a lot of Sanders supporters saying they are either no longer planning to vote or just writing Bernie in come November. I plan on showing up for Biden myself because while I hugely support Bernie, its just too dangerous to not vote with another Supreme Court nominee on the line. I hope in November,people will do the right thing, but I cant not feel that we've just already lost. I guess the best we CAN hope for is people voting Blue in the Senate and House, the Senate especially. I want to see Mitch McConnel out. This whole thing has me pessimistic in general though.
 
Thievulpes velox
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Im seeing a lot of Sanders supporters saying they are either no longer planning to vote or just writing Bernie in come November.
I wouldn't get too hung up on the "Bernie or Bust" crowd. The primary results have made it clear their numbers are insignificant.

He's not out, though, he's still on the ballot. He's just suspended campaigning.
 
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When it’s time to leave a race for public office, candidates often announce their “suspended campaign” instead of actually dropping out. Practically speaking, there is not a big difference and federal law does not define or officially recognize the act [...]
In this case, though, he's not doing it because he thinks he won't succeed, he's doing it so there's no crowds at rallies. A little different from the examples there. He's also made of point of saying he's staying on the ballot.
 
Thievulpes velox
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In this case, though, he's not doing it because he thinks he won't succeed, he's doing it so there's no crowds at rallies. A little different from the examples there. He's also made of point of saying he's staying on the ballot.
He’s acknowledged he has no path to victory. It’s over for him.
 
how we so, chasing gold
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figured some people might be wondering about this so thankfully a legal channel i watch has answered the question:



the answer would genuinely catch you off guard lol
 
Thievulpes velox
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Thievulpes velox
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New high-quality polls from 3 major swing states today:
Biden 46-42 in Florida (Quinnipiac)
Biden 50-42 in Pennsylvania (Fox News)
Biden 49-41 in Michigan (Fox News)

National poll from Economist/YouGov has Biden up 48-42.
Still a long way to go, but right now, 2020 is looking more like 2012 than 2016.
 
Petals For Armor
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I think a Biden-Warren ticket would increase support among the Bernie-Or-Bust crowd. I get that Warren isn't Bernie, but by Biden picking Warren it shows that a) he follows up on his promise of nominating a female VP and b) proves that he notices the progressive agenda and takes them seriously.

You could argue that Kamala might be a better pick, but I think Biden needs to garner support from the progressive wing moreso than increase the support he already has from African American women.

My dad thinks he's going to nominate Klobuchar, but I think that would seal his fate since she's still pretty moderate, I really do think he needs to attempt to garner support from the people on the left he doesn't have.
 
Thievulpes velox
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I think a Biden-Warren ticket would increase support among the Bernie-Or-Bust crowd. I get that Warren isn't Bernie, but by Biden picking Warren it shows that a) he follows up on his promise of nominating a female VP and b) proves that he notices the progressive agenda and takes them seriously.

You could argue that Kamala might be a better pick, but I think Biden needs to garner support from the progressive wing moreso than increase the support he already has from African American women.

My dad thinks he's going to nominate Klobuchar, but I think that would seal his fate since she's still pretty moderate, I really do think he needs to attempt to garner support from the people on the left he doesn't have.
IMO, Biden shouldn't bother with the Bernie-or-Bust crowd at all; they've already proven they're unreachable. Picking Warren as his running mate would require giving up a Senate seat (Massachusetts has a Republican governor who would appoint her replacement). Klobuchar presents a similar problem. If Biden's going to pick a Senator, Harris is the most reasonable choice because the special election to fill her seat wouldn't be remotely competitive.
 
Praise Euterpe
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New high-quality polls from 3 major swing states today:
Biden 46-42 in Florida (Quinnipiac)
Biden 50-42 in Pennsylvania (Fox News)
Biden 49-41 in Michigan (Fox News)

National poll from Economist/YouGov has Biden up 48-42.
Still a long way to go, but right now, 2020 is looking more like 2012 than 2016.
What were the polls like in 2016 at this point, though? I remember the polls showing a clear victory for Clinton.
 
how we so, chasing gold
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i think it's important to remember for people comparing 2016 polls to 2020 polls that clinton isn't running.
 
Thievulpes velox
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What were the polls like in 2016 at this point, though? I remember the polls showing a clear victory for Clinton.
Clinton was well ahead, but Biden is much more popular now than Clinton was in 2016.
i think it's important to remember for people comparing 2016 polls to 2020 polls that clinton isn't running.
And also, Trump's awfulness as President was theoretical back then. Now it's reality.

BTW, for those wondering if Biden could win support from younger voters, a new poll has him up by 40 points among college students. Chegg Election Tracker powered by College Pulse - Media Center
 
Gather round, people, I'll tell you a story
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IMO, Biden shouldn't bother with the Bernie-or-Bust crowd at all; they've already proven they're unreachable. Picking Warren as his running mate would require giving up a Senate seat (Massachusetts has a Republican governor who would appoint her replacement). Klobuchar presents a similar problem. If Biden's going to pick a Senator, Harris is the most reasonable choice because the special election to fill her seat wouldn't be remotely competitive.
Klobuchar would cost a Senate seat, but the seat would be filled in the interim by a Democrat, and in the meanwhile Biden's got the Midwest on lock.
 
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