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American Politics Thread

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fivethirtyeight.com

The Battleground States Where We’ve Seen Some Movement In The Polls

With apologies to The Raconteurs, the presidential race continues to be “steady as she goes,” with little sign of tightening despite a plethora of new polls. Fi…
fivethirtyeight.com fivethirtyeight.com

Remember. At this point in 2016 was when things began going downhill for Hillary when the FBI announced they wrote reopening the investigation into her private email server. Biden still holds a decent lead 4 days away and hasn't lost much ground. We know a win in Wisconsin and Michigan is likely. Pennsylvania will take extra time, but if he can claim a state like North Carolina or Florida, its over for Trump on the 3rd.
 
A Wild Luxray said:
Finally something to give me hope for the end of this nightmare https://twitter.com/i/events/1321615065838092288

And in this, it says a lot of the voters under 30, who have been turning out in record numbers, tend to favor democrats by a 30 point margin.
Click to expand...
The comparative surge in voters has been promising. Hopefully there will still be decent turnout 2, 4, and on years later.
Very glad younger people are taking this basic right accorded to them right now.

JFrombaugh said:
"The Covid-19 pandemic is ravaging our country right now, with over 220,000 people dead and counting. If you get re-elected, what are you planning to do about it?"
"Nothing. It'll take care of itself."

Remember, that was what Herbert Hoover said back in the Great Depression...and look where it got him.
Click to expand...
There are times when letting nature take its course is a useful strategy. Agreed, this is not one of them. (the relative curious outlier case of Japan notwithstanding)
_____

Re: squads and such: yes, shift that Overton window in Congress so that it's not tilted as far to the right compared to the international average.
_____

Others and I have already said this, and it's too late really to change anyone's mind, but here I'm just posting this for the concept, now.

Link to (and spoilered copy of) the meme about the political consideration of doing it for those critically affected.
[too dumb to suppress link, will break it]
<https://www.facebook .com/105514150921194/photos/a.105516037587672/203697457769529/
>
1604026304587.png
 
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Rainfall said:
The comparative surge in voters has been promising. Hopefully there will still be decent turnout 2, 4, and on years later.
Very glad younger people are taking this basic right accorded to them right now.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I'm hoping its enough and the high surge of mail-in ballots for Democrats will be enough to combat the large surge of Republicans we can expect on the 3rd. And if we can defeat Trump, I think there's no doubt we're going to have someone as equally terrible or worse, like Mike Pence running in 2024. So I hope Democrats don't ever lose their guard and prepare themselves for the next far-right radical candidate cause I'm not counting on seeing a more moderate Republican candidate like John Kasich or Mitt Romney in 2024. I'm expecting to see the worst of the worst, like Mike Pence. I do hope 2024 will see a younger, more charismatic, Obama-esque candidate if Biden doesn't seek reelection if he wins.
 
A Wild Luxray said:
[from quote, removed first line re: this election]
And if we can defeat Trump, I think there's no doubt we're going to have someone as equally terrible or worse, like Mike Pence running in 2024. So I hope Democrats don't ever lose their guard and prepare themselves for the next far-right radical candidate cause I'm not counting on seeing a more moderate Republican candidate like John Kasich or Mitt Romney in 2024. I'm expecting to see the worst of the worst, like Mike Pence. I do hope 2024 will see a younger, more charismatic, Obama-esque candidate if Biden doesn't seek reelection if he wins.
Click to expand...

That's been a fear I've heard before and now have as well. Even if Biden-Harris wins the national election, will enough be done to address major issues? Will there be enough beyond two years of Congress to enact certain measures? There's always a chance that the work will be lukewarm, Congress remains gridlocked, and people remain upset, setting the stage for someone equally terrible or worse, as you said.
At least one person has feared that we won't get someone in the necessary degree (re: topics like confronting lopsided financial inequality, climate) and simultaneously character of Senator Sanders for a long time, and, well, I'll entertain the possibility and hope, but also try to hold a low-expectations outlook as well.
 
Volphied said:
www.vice.com

It Looks Like AOC's Squad Will Double After Election Day

The progressive group calling for a Green New Deal and pushing the Democrats left is about to get a whole lot bigger.
www.vice.com www.vice.com

This is extremely good news, as the infusion of more progressive Democrats into congress will increase the pressure on more moderate ones and also on Biden to pass a more progressive agenda, instead of the same old centrist half-measures, to deal with current socioeconomic issues.
Click to expand...

I would be happy if they just undid the damage the Republicans did.
 
I wish we had a President that could spell president.
 
Some statistics so far 2020 General Election Early Vote Statistics

Democrats are turning out in larger numbers. Hopefully there's a number of unaffiliated voters voting Democrat and we are getting a decent amount of votes from the Republicans who hate Trump. Also hoping we can counteract the surge of Republicans we can count on. Hoping they're turning out in the right states also.
 
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A Wild Luxray said:
Some statistics so far 2020 General Election Early Vote Statistics

Democrats are turning out in larger numbers. Hopefully there's a number of unaffiliated voters voting Democrat and we are getting a decent amount of votes from the Republicans who hate Trump. Also hoping we can counteract the surge of Republicans we can count on. Hoping they're turning out in the right states also.
Click to expand...

It's the early voting in person statistics we need to take into account. I think that early voting in person statistics would pan out well on election day, because people who are voting in person early are not just doing it that way because of the pandemic (those people will vote by mail), they're doing it that way because they want to vote.
 
2 days....We're just 2 days away. We're in for the fight of our lives. We either continue to sit through this hatred, division, pettiness, blatant corruption, and gross negligence, or we elect a man who will lead with compassion and understanding, believes in science, will listen to the experts, won't suck up to dictators or white supremacists, and will put us on a path towards a future better than what we're living in now. Praying that Joe Biden will win this and end this nightmare.

Also worth noting, he's certainly in a better position than Hillary Clinton was at this point. The race hasn't been tightening up too much in some major swing states, and even within the margin of error from 2016, he's still in a good position. Plus, there is no major scandal the Republicans are pushing that is actually working. We could be in a position to save our country and save our democracy.

Also I wanted to point this out. https://twitter.com/i/events/1322630052207489024?s=09

I've never seen such disgusting behavior over an election. This just shows you that Trump brings the worst out of people. A bunch of Trump supporters flocked to their trucks to follow a Biden-Harris bus and try to slow them down on the highway. Apparently they had to cancel an event because of this.
 
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A Wild Luxray said:
I've never seen such disgusting behavior over an election. This just shows you that Trump brings the worst out of people. A bunch of Trump supporters flocked to their trucks to follow a Biden-Harris bus and try to slow them down on the highway. Apparently they had to cancel an event because of this.
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And to top it off, Trump tweets about how much he loved it.

View: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1322700188624932869


Between this, the three separate days where he praised people for harassing a local reporter (not a major outlet, just Long Island 12), and the time he said Martin Gugino, very clearly shoved unprovoked on camera, was secretly Antifa, I'm 1) very worried about how Trump supporters are going to act in the days following the election, 2) wondering why people still pretend like it's so shocking to say Trump acts like a fascist. Like, yeah, it's a very bold claim to make, but you can see this in action, on twitter, you don't even need to acknowledge him sending federal police to abduct protesters or holding migrants in camps. It shouldn't be shocking to say "This man who praises his supporters when they harass innocent people, to the point of violence, seems to be acting like a fascist."
 
TechSkylander1518 said:
And to top it off, Trump tweets about how much he loved it.

View: https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1322700188624932869


Between this, the three separate days where he praised people for harassing a local reporter (not a major outlet, just Long Island 12), and the time he said Martin Gugino, very clearly shoved unprovoked on camera, was secretly Antifa, I'm 1) very worried about how Trump supporters are going to act in the days following the election, 2) wondering why people still pretend like it's so shocking to say Trump acts like a fascist. Like, yeah, it's a very bold claim to make, but you can see this in action, on twitter, you don't even need to acknowledge him sending federal police to abduct protesters or holding migrants in camps. It shouldn't be shocking to say "This man who praises his supporters when they harass innocent people, to the point of violence, seems to be acting like a fascist."
Click to expand...

Behavior like this is just among the many reasons why Trump deserves to lose and why his supporters don't deserve the satisfaction. I've never seen a candidate's supporters behave in such a disgusting way. Bush supporters, Romney supporrers, McCain supporters, you name it. Trump brings out the worst of this country.
 
Latest round of polls shows Trump’s out of time. Unless we witness the largest polling error in modern history, Joe Biden will be our next President.
 
Things certainly look significantly better, and even with the margin of error, Biden is in a decent position. Let's pray in a few days we can say President Elect Joe Biden. Imagine how great it will feel. Breaking news celebrating his victory and the historic occassion of the first female VP. Seeing Biden thanking his supporters and talking about how we can begin healing the soul of the nation. Seeing Joe Biden and Kamala Harris all over morning shows and late night talk shows.
 
A Wild Luxray said:
Some more early voting data for early voting from NBC

Florida- Florida election results 2020: Live results by county
Pennsylvania- Pennsylvania election results 2020: Live results by county
Wisconsin- Wisconsin election results 2020: Live results by county
Michigan- Michigan election results 2020: Live results by county

Democrats seem to be doing well in Florida and Pennsylvania so far, Michigan and Wisconsin are extremely concerning....
Click to expand...

Due to the unprecedented amount of mail in votes arriving, along with more coming in the next day, I don't expect many states to declare the winner on election night. It's very likely that it won't be before the end of the week when we'll learn the final results.
 
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