Estimated Release Date - Oct. 28th, 2016

[Joshawott]

Retailers often predict release dates to encourage pre-orders; a number of online stores in the UK opened pre-orders with an estimate release date of 31st December 2016; basically the latest possibility unless the games somehow end up delayed into 2017. The Japanese Direct specifying Winter 2016 pretty much places the release in December by my books (Winter: December-February, Spring: March-May, Summer: June-August, Autumn: September-November).

 

[Cute Charm]

Releasing it any time in December would miss Black Friday. So they'll probably get it out a week or so before the rush happens to make sure they make their money.

So, sometime between November 1st and November 24th does seem like most likely time frame for a release date.

 

[Dorothy]

Releasing it any time in December would miss Black Friday. So they'll probably get it out a week or so before the rush happens to make sure they make their money.

Black Friday is afaik a uniquely American phenomenon, so I wouldn't use that as solid evidence for a November release. There are other regions to consider, after all. If it is a November release, though, Black Friday is sure to be taken advantage of somehow.

 

[Alolan Ninetales]

Don't the UK also have Black Friday? I think it's a world-wide thing honestly. I remember watching a video about it and how it compared to the Americans in the Black Friday season.

If they did decide to release it earlier than "winter 2016", I'd be on board. I was thinking more around the release time of ORAS would be nice too.

 

[Cute Charm]

@Jabberwocky

The way they made it sound kind of makes me wonder if they aren't aiming for a pre-Black Friday release. Especially considering how North America got holiday 2016 instead of winter 2016 or late 2016 like Europe and Asia got at the end of their trailers.

Black Friday is usually considered the start of the holiday season by many. If they weren't aiming for something close they probably would have just gone with the Winter 2016 wording.

 

[Dorothy]

Don't the UK also have Black Friday? I think it's a world-wide thing honestly. I remember watching a video about it and how it compared to the Americans in the Black Friday season.

Soooooort of. "Black Friday" in the UK usually refers to the Friday before Christmas. Some retailers are trying to introduce an Americanesque Black Friday to Britain with varying degrees of success.

 

[Misheard Whisper]

Black Friday is definitely not a worldwide thing; it only exists because of thanksgiving, which is not a thing outside of North America. You'll see the odd Black Friday sale elsewhere in the world, sure, but it's nowhere near as intensely competitive as it is in America - it's just another sale weekend, like Easter, bank holidays or maybe Chinese New Year, and it's far from universal. Kiwis at least tend to respond to corporate efforts to make it relevant here with a resounding 'meh'.

 

[EvilChameleon]

Cyber Monday, however...

 

[Phoenixon]

I don't think the fact that Black Friday is a "North American" thing means that them making the release date coincide with it won't happen?
I don't know the numbers, but I'm sure North America is a significant chunk of the revenue they make from Pokemon sales... So if they could make that chunk larger, I don't see why they wouldn't.
I'm leaning towards a pre-Black Friday date. I'm not saying that it's a MAIN factor in their decision, I'm just saying they will almost certainly consider it...

 

[Lufenium]

October 28th doesn't sound like a bad date to me. I doubt it's real, but it's certainly realistic. Pokemon favours late-year releases, so anything from September-December wouldn't be too far off the mark.

 

[Almonds]

We don't have Thanksgiving or Black Friday in Korea, but the third or last week of November are usually good periods to release games as well because:

1. It continues on to the holiday season - Christmas and Lunar New Year's.
2. The KSAT ends on the second week of November. Potential college freshmen are the best targets to sell stuff because they receive discounts from pretty much every place they can spend money on if they show their exam ID.

 

[DoctorWhy]

I know it won't happen because they already said Holiday 2016, however I would absolutely love a September release.

I think the best bet though is probably mid November again, like the weekend before Thanksgiving in the US.'

HOWEVER....

Spoiler

Sun, Moon.... The Sun goes down and the Moon comes out for....HALLOWEEN JUST LIKE MAJORA'S MASK'S RELEASE.

Mainly joking around but I thought this might be at least a little clever given the whole moon thing

 

[Lufenium]

I know it won't happen because they already said Holiday 2016, however I would absolutely love a September release.

The reason I mentioned September is because that's been a common choice for release before. I forgot they said Holiday 2016 in the trailer, oops.

What time frame does "Holiday 2016" exactly cover? IIRC it's November/December.

 

[Dorothy]

What time frame does "Holiday 2016" exactly cover? IIRC it's November/December.

Sometimes early January as well, but that's usually only for movies.

 

[Soki]

I don't really care if it releases in October, November or December... as long as it doesn't release in the same period as Mass Effect: Andromeda D:

Though I'd love an October release, the sooner the better. But if it said Holiday Season in other trailers, then it probably is November/December.

 

[Dorothy]

I don't really care if it releases in October, November or December... as long as it doesn't release in the same period as Mass Effect: Andromeda D:

Spoiler

same tho

 

[Joshawott]

Black Friday is afaik a uniquely American phenomenon, so I wouldn't use that as solid evidence for a November release. There are other regions to consider, after all. If it is a November release, though, Black Friday is sure to be taken advantage of somehow.

Yup, Black Friday is exclusively in America. Retailers tried to kick it off in the United Kingdom a couple of years ago with success, but last year no one cared and the idea fell flat. I could however, see Nintendo of America and TPCi using it as leverage to secure a late-November release; particularly if it launches alongside console bundles and a price-drop. I doubt TPC and NOJ would agree to releasing the games in America a week before Japan, so that could push the global date. Then Europe will receive the games in mid-December.

 

[Beck]

The only hard-date Game Freak has in mind when they say "Holiday 2016" is exactly that -- Christmas and the likes. Anything later than (two weeks) before Christmas is a missed opportunity, so a mid-December release date is what seems most likely, and a late November release date at best.

Like Josh said as well, I would be surprised if Game Freak wasn't further incentivized and/or pidgeonholed by Nintendo of America into releasing the games earlier than mid-December to capitalize on bundle opportunities and repeat purchases.

 

[Zeb]

I think the second half of November is way more likely as the release date than late October or early/mid December.

 

[Beck]

I think the second half of November is way more likely as the release date than late October or early/mid December.

I would agree mostly because of the past trends. Late November release-dates are quite common with most main-series games.