Mafia Fire in the Garden: Kanto Starters Mafia: Endgame, Bulbasaur Victory

[Zexy]

All that is fair, but could you please try to read up on the cases on Piko and I and take a stance?

 

[gentlefeather]

am at work but will do in a couple of hours

 

[Midorikawa]

Why not? I do this all the time when I am scum. Bussing early on D1, i.e. sussing/voting a scum partner, is an easy way to distance early & I can always backtrack if necessary.

Agreed. You mess up I’m bussing you.

why? Do you think that the player that targeted Zexy is more likely to be mafia or town?

I don’t get the obsession with it either.

Fair enough, I was pretty speculative in general yesterday but I did try to follow a train of thought I believed to be logical in expressing my case to vote jaison over wissen.

Idk why I quoted this.

What I see in Snowy's post is calling out a vote made on something that he didn't believe to be alignment indicative, aka saying that he thinks Mido's vote unfairly paints a target on Zexy's back. Sounds reasonable to me. It's not like he's implicitly helping Zexy in any way by voting or anything like that either because all the votes were tied at 1.

While as I’ve said nothing is wrong with snowy voting because I didn’t have an explanation during my initial vote. This part is red flags from you. It looks more like you’re trying to paint me in a bad light using snowy and Piko as a cover, and to make Zexy look good as though I’m some person abusing a poor defenseless child.

So are these "normal circumstances" or not? Because your read leads off with the sense that you're gonna townread gentlefeather since these aren't "normal circumstances" but then you end up giving her a scumread at the end.

Agreed

I will say this. Regardless of who actually sealed Jaison's fate, the reason I think Jamie looks better than gentlefeather in this situation is because he did not hesitate when voting Jaison, he just made a choice and went. Whereas I think scum is more likely to look for approval and ask questions before making a decision so that in the case it is a miselim it's not entirely "their fault."

Gentle was originally against voting inactives so I can see them waffling on the decision in an attempt for information but wondering which to pick.

also want something more substantial from LICH. Encouraging LICH to discuss something that's already been discussed pretty thoroughly is not going to result in something more substantial from LICH. Encouraging LICH to give reads on other players backed up with reasoning will result in something more substantial from LICH.

Forcing reads is no good either. They’re superficial then. Not everyone needs to do reads. Some people like doing them some don’t. I hate them because i work off the logic of if I think you’re mafia I will take you down.

Not really. All you have done is separate the people who have posted a decent amount (plus snowy) from like four other players who are inactive (some of whom you even gave townreads to!!!) and said "here, there's two mafia in this group of half the players." And then you just said there's one scum in the remaining players who aren't as active or were more null in your eyes. If that's the point you were trying to make (two amongst the actives plus snowy, one inactive) it was incredibly unclear.

Honestly this part of your guys argument is ridiculous. It just feels like you guys are grasping at something to discuss that is honestly NAI at this point.

 

[Zexy]

85: Raven suggests lynching either wissen or jaison
86: Piko, despite not doing much aside from jokes up until that point, immediately jumps on wissen. It strikes me as odd the moment I read it.
90: I already start to very slightly suspect the possibility of Piko and wissen being buddies

96: Tangential to my Piko case, but LICH jumps to remind us (only) wissen is inactive, even though jaison and Jamie were too.
98: ExLight votes wissen too, that did not strike me as odd back then but it could be a sus interaction if LICH is scum and wissen is not
101: Raven also votes wissen, first he suggests something, Piko uses that to vote one, Raven votes other. If both town, slightly sus
102-103: wissen trolls us
106: Raven doubles down on wissen after this, before Caps even starts a jaison case
113: Mido makes a good case on Raven, one I could get behind at the time

115: Piko, feeling safe enough with Raven and jaison as options, takes the vote back from wissen, because they talked, even though they did not say anything substantial

119: Piko shows up, quotes a few thing, says NAI meta stuff, then questions dawn dusk about the Everstone. In fact if he is scum he would love to know more about it (if it exists). And if he really believed dawn dusk has it, it would make sense to kill him for it, not risk him passing it to a scum to prevent them from ever getting a power role.

148: wissen is subbed out

That is it for now, will come back later for the rest. All I really got from re reading was Piko a bit too eager to learn about dawn dusk Everstone the same way he wanted to learn more about who visited me

 

[Zexy]

152: Piko shows up soon after wissen sub out again, only to feel the need to look active and tell us he will give us more later... When the wagons will be clearer and he can more safely take a stance that leads to a mislynch.

159: Caps says that starting two wagons is never a bad idea. Even though later he says I am jumpy for insisting on an A or B situation today.

169: Even though Piko was asking about the everstone earlier, upon seeing the topic was dropped he also agrees there is not much point in continuing it.

Also 169, Piko is the first one to try to link me and Snowy. Our only interaction back then was his joke vote where I just replied "hi". Yet Piko is trying to imply me and Snowy are somehow related. Keep in mind he did vote Snowy early d2.

As of 172, I did single out Piko as acting differently than Raven/Caps already. I know I said I town leaned him at the time compared to his wissen vote era, but looking back it is just that at the time I thought Raven/Caps were pushier and that was somehow scummy, but this also meant that Piko was coastier in retrospect while the others were more scumhunty.

183: Jamie first post thinks I am sus for saying he could be mafia alongside Raven. Keeping this for future reference.

185: another Piko post that tries to look active while being NAI

187-189: gentle/Jamie interaction for tiebreak before phase end

200: Piko wants to know if the votals are wrong or not. As if he tries to fish if there is a vote affecting role in the people who voted there

229: Mido votes me without much analysis on why yet

243 : Snowy shows up and tries to stick close to me too much, voting Mido because she voted for me, even though I have made no attempt to link my cases with Snowy in any way yet. This is something that Piko and Mido capitalised a lot on later.

259: reads a bit sus from LICH if the team is Piko/LICH/wissen. Easy way to throw shade at me and make Mido agree with him.

268: one of the BAD Piko posts. All the things outside the spoiler are NAI trying to look active, the reads in the spoiler are either too null or too easily changed around. He had me as town lean and Snowy as null, then he made cases on both of us! Also the Caps scum thing he dropped as it became increasingly clear Caps is not even close to being lynched today, something he could have realistically still hope for that early on based on what Mido said before against him.

More later. I absolutely WANT this post to end on 268. It is like the archetypal "Piko tries to do things, but then actually does not really, and in fact changes things around when convenient later" post!

 

[Zexy]

One minor detail on 268, he says Snowy null in the spoiler when other are more scum leans but still votes for Snowy, for "pressure". In retrospect it could be to connect him with me. Either Piko can predict very well what Mido will do, or Piko and Mido DO work together.

 

[ExLight]

So show quotes of his defense. You’re saying it exists, so show it. For the record LICH has stated te same flaw and I might have too. So I agree the jaison choice never made sense but I can’t recall a Wissen defense until the sub in. So quote it for everyone to prove your point.

I'm lost as to what you mean, his defense isn't a direct one. He acknowledged that wissen was scummy, but did so by redirecting the attention towards jaison instead of the root of the issue (which was wissen).

 

[ExLight]

I might need older Zexy games to get a grasp of his playstyle.
When was the last time you played a mafia game @Zexy ?

 

[Zexy]

I might need older Zexy games to get a grasp of his playstyle.
When was the last time you played a mafia game @Zexy ?

2017 probably, look before Zexy Games III in the archive, anything I was not hosting/MoDing I would play... But I am pretty sure my meta is not the same as back then. I am more of a frustrated player who pressured and threw accusations to see what sticks this time, before I could make a calm and collected and calculated case on someone. Back then I was more "by the book", avoiding to point out uncomfortable truths unless I was confident enough. Or say things like "sorry it is not statistically likely you flip scum but your flip gives maximum info".

No other read I have made this game has been on the level of confidence of my old style or my carefully ISOd out Piko one here.

One reason could be I was mostly posting from a laptop carefully multi quoting back then, now I am posting mostly from phone.

 

[Zexy]

You need to understand that back then I had a better understanding of regulars' metas, I was more likely to make statements like "this is typical town Mido" or "this is too similar to scum Caps in that game" etc.
This is not something I can comfortably do now.

For what it is worth, I was scumbuddies with Piko a looong time ago in a couple games and I feel like his style here does somewhat match the coasty style he had there, although it has been years and he has probably refined it.

 

[DawningWinds]

2/3 Phase Votals
Zexy (3) - Mint Elv, Pikochu, LICH KING
Pikochu (2) - Zexy, TheCapsFan
Mint Elv (1) - Minish*
Elieson (1) - ExLight
DawningWinds (0) - Elieson
*Vote placed by previous holder of slot

 

[Zexy]

Yeah right, Snowy=Minish, just clarifying because I referred a lot to Snowy in the above posts

 

[TheCapsFan]

For those with keen eyes, I'm not ignoring the thread, but I won't really have time to post at all this evening. I am loosely keeping an eye on the thread here and there to glance at Mido's responses and check for an Elieson/Minish catchup.

 

[ExLight]

Unvote
Vote: Pikochu

I'm really interested in seeing where these tied wagons will go

 

[Zexy]

Glad the above happened, we really need to pressure most people to commit to a wagon. I do not like being mislynched, but if my flip is that informative to you all, so be it, worth the risk.

I know I owe the 269-current analysis, today has been kinda busy, I do plan to get it done within some hours.

 

[Midorikawa]

The fuck??? If you are town, and Zexy and I are scum, how does it benefit us for Zexy to just telegraph my lynch on Day 3 like he did? To bus me and give himself cred?? At the cost of losing a whole ass teammate? In this game, where getting access to power is the same as rolling a 4 on a d4, numbers matter. Scum want to keep their partners alive. Especially the active ones.

….We’re you not just saying early how you are the type to bus even day one? So why suddenly can that not be true for Zexy?

Wait, if we're scumbuds, shouldn't Zexy be putting me as a lower priority target? He isn't! I am next in line on his chopping block if you flip town! From your POV, if you're town, you should understand that!!!

Could be distancing. Just saying.

I can see the case better on Piko. He definitely is a mess. but I do feel like some things are blown out of proportion while others went unnoticed. And some things are just pointless.

I want to do more reading still before any major decisions.

 

[Zexy]

281, Snowy fairly points out that Piko said half the players could be scum. Pretty valid point, agreed too. Problem is this gets used to link Snowy and I more.

291, Caps roasting Piko better than I ever could. Let us see how well Piko replies to these next or if he gets desperate...

296, ExLight says they town lean Piko and the rest of the post does not add much

299, Caps thinks that even if I am scum, Snowy is town and I would not like to look sus voting for him. If Caps is scum, he would know this will look bad on him when me or Snowy flips if the other is pushed and also flips. If Caps is town... He is yet another townie (like me) with a valid point that makes me and Snowy not connected as same aljgnment... Unlike Piko and Mido, who really wish to keep us connected to push a wagon on either

Gotta pause here even though I did not originally intend to, saw new post message in the thread while reading up on previous pages and gotta read it

 

[Zexy]

Ah ok, it is a Mido post. I am trying to tackle all those at once in the end, especially since at some point I saw her asking me to get more specific on Snowy, and I would rather see the entire Piko/Snowy/original accusation of me+Snowy as buddies again, before finding a way to TL;DR that.

For now I hope she is OK with the few points I made about Snowy in the general ISO so far, the "explicitly answering Mido" one is still gonna show up before phase end despite being busy I promise

 

[Zexy]

305, not a huge fan of Raven voting Jamie here. Could be two things: Raven Jamie Piko scum team (not as likely), or Raven scum Jamie town, Raven made the honest mistake of not including Jamie early d1 alongside wissen and jaison, is called out for it, and gets the idea to shade jaison just to be safe if she flips so we go after him next

The only thing that is kinda off with Raven Piko buddies is that they got too bold early, one says lynch one of two town inactives without voting, other follows on it and votes. Can still work with some WIFOM scum theater magic tho

308 could be the Caps post that gave Piko the idea to use that to start asking more vehemently about my visit, making it too much about him, when it was not really, in fact nothing correlated my visitor and Piko prior to this post

316. Now we are talking. The first HUGE case Mido makes on me. Let's try to tackle this only using the points made above, not what showed up later...

Spoiler

So you think voting and making a case on a hunch is a good ideas after the last one that failed spectacularly?

No, I just did not have something better to work with at the time

If you’re reluctant then why? If you’re reluctant then you shouldn’t be voting them since it means you’re not confident.

Here is the thing. Many times I may vote early phase despite being reluctant. Those times, I outright say it I am reluctant. I was NOT reluctant about jaison at the time, I genuinely believed that was the best flip we could work with d1. I am NOT reluctant with Piko. I WAS reluctant on Raven d1 and LICH d2. I outright say which cases I really like more and which I make mid phase just to get discussion rolling.

…now Wissen is a troll but not yesterday?

Yesterday I believed they slipped just like Caps believed. Unfortunately reality proved me wrong the moment jaison flipped. So I have to accept wissen was always a troll, and mafia knew it all along, so I am using as a true statement in analysis from now on when trying to scum read someone.

can’t remember why I originally quoted this but matching it with Zexy not wanting to pressure snowy definitely makes them look very buddy buddy.

How is that even a good case when you cannot remember why you started making the case...

And you didn’t think that was suspicious yesterday? Especially after what I pointed out about Raven? Wouldn’t it make sense to push him on the fact that he wants to lynch inactives but blatantly ignores one?

Let me just say, I have my reasons. My case on Raven Jamie is a bit complicated, but I would not sleep on it. Or worry too much about it!

 

[Zexy]

322, Caps raises a good point, Mido case on Caps was just poof gone. Just like Piko started throwing some shade on Caps, but then did not want to OMGUS, then I outright said that no matter what I am not voting Caps today... And suddenly Piko and Mido forgot there ever was a case on Caps!

327, Caps says he is not convinced there is scum between Mido and I. From a Piko and Mido scum POV, this means they can no longer get the actives to get on each others throats. Which makes things desperate. The only way to save themselves and hopefully get one active out while they still can is to gang up on me, something Piko will eventually do

Speaking of which, Piko has taken a long while since his last post which was pretty bad too. He is buying time, knows the spot is tight, tries to think how to flip this and maybe strategise with buddies, while also hoping someone else will conveniently take the spotlight off him to something else

328, party is over. Piko has the 2 most active townies votes on him, I only have one... Everyone needs to gang up on Zexy now else boom

Like I am not sure about either Mido or LICH, but if Piko is scum, then come on at least one of Mido or LICH should be too

333, Mido makes appeal to emotion theatrics like "vote Zexy to infinity" and even says, LOL, that I am trying to get her lynched

Not once in this entire game yet have I suggested that Mido should be the d1 or d2 lynch. Despite being voted by her. I only said consider her d3 if and only if Piko is scum.

Mido tried to use as a case against me that I made a case against her... Which just has not happened at that point! I only started that after connecting far too many dots on Piko, and even now I am not super sure, I just think that if Piko scum then one of Mido LICH also scum. If Piko town I am the worst player ever and Mido is NEVER a suspect. I would vote like Caps and the inactives before her d3 every single time (if I were to survive that).