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Mafia Fire in the Garden: Kanto Starters Mafia: Endgame, Bulbasaur Victory

7 hours left in the phase.

I know I still owe Mido a going back on my posts with the numbers and isolating the points she made and rephrasing them with quotes.

Aside from that, the wagons now are as follows, with 7 out of 11 ppl voting

Zexy (4) - Mint Elv, Pikochu, LICH KING, RavenRaziel98
Pikochu (3) - TheCapsFan, Zexy, ExLight

@Minish @Elieson @gentlefeather @JamieIsBored
Please commit to a wagon, you have 7 hours
 
Just in case I don't finish catching up before EOD, what are the cases on Zexy and Piko? From my brief, brief reading so far I'd lean more towards voting Piko of the two but I've only read up to page 6 so far.
 
What's the reasoning behind about players being scum more than random chance at that point? At that point of the game, aside form the random voting, vanilla joking and host voting, I don't see anything that would make someone scum. Maybe the host voting but it seems to have been shut down as soon as the votals came out.



Not having a lynch at any time increases the relative proportion of mafia as mafia gets a night kill no matter what. And since they have some certainty already, they can act upon that and even cause more confusion. The only thing that keeps mafia in check are the day phases, what they post and analysis of potential scum. Having certainty on town's side is nice but it's not necessarily worth waiting for when we have some basic tools, especially this is also a numbers game.



[citation needed] How?



What?



While I don't fundamentally disagree with the analysis, see my analysis above. In addition, since the roles are randomized, worse case scenario, no new roles are given to town players that is useful. And remember, there's no guarantee that we are given a cop, tracker, watcher, etc.



Eh, I wouldn't say so for Day 1. There tends to be so much frustration on Day 1 because there is nothing to go off of. Having something, even if completely flawed, is something to go off as, if anything, find opportunistic scum in Day 1 who's trying to take advantage of the confusion.

As for the Everstone claim, I find it weird that such an item exists. @dawn dusk, is there anyhting else that should be made public about the Everstone? For example, are you able to pass on the item to other players or something?

This post seems so wishy washy. Especially with the previous posts of voting one of the wagons then backing off. It's like Piko is trying to both advocate and not advocate for the inactives lynch.


You're right that we would get the same amount of immediate info as if we no lynched. But, we will get the benefit of hindsight once we do lynch mafia to see how that player interacted with the choices presented on Day 1. Perhaps that will give greater insight into whether the other is town or not.

I would rather lynch someone rather than nobody. I don't particularly care about the mechanics of how players evolve or whatever. IMO a game of mafia with weird mechanics at the end of the day is still a game of mafia, and in games of Mafia, I don't like no-lynching on D1. I have no problem with offing one of the inactives here, and if you're gonna talk about subs, we only have one so only one slot would be useful anyway

But none of this matters because apparently wissen knows that jaison is mafia, so by not lynching jaison, you're deliberately avoiding lynching mafia ¯\(ツ)

Was that last part joking? Because if not this seems like scum trying to push an agenda. Lol.

I will spell it out clearly - I think that wissen hasn't played mafia before, and accidentally outed his scumbuddy jaison. To test this theory I would like to kill jaison to see if he is scum - if jaison is scum, then we kill wissen tomorrow. If jaison is town, then we know that wissen was just talking out of their ass - but imo it was worth it at least to check.

If wissen comes forth before the end of the day and says that they have played mafia before, and know how the game works, then they've just made an empty accusation and I'll perhaps look elsewhere.


This plan is...shit. Sorry, but in this case you would lynch Wissen first, not Jaison. Like there's literally no reason to lynch Jaison if you feel like Wissen has slipped or is talking out of his ass. You lynch Wissen to confirm which it is.
 
Honestly I am starting to entertaining Mido's case on Raven a bit more, they suggested a lynch on either jaison or wissen as inactives too fast and we just jumped when JamieIsBored was conveniently ignored.

Unvote : jaison krasta
Vote : RavenRaziel98

Like this post. The idea that Raven suggested lynched inactives but left one out because they're potential scumbuds is solid reasoning.

If jaison is mafia, wissen is very likely mafia too. If jaison is town, wissen was just spewing nonsense and we can judge the slot by its new sub. Raven and Mido can also be judged later accoridingly. An alive jaison is not really providing as much info going forward though. So yeah jaison flip is our best bet for now.


Hate this post. Lol. Again, Wissen would be the best flip here, not Jaison.

We can also do the same by lynching you. Difference is we have information going into day 2 lynching you.

Unvote
Vote: Thecapsfan


He’s really pushing the idea of an inactive giving info. And seems to be ignoring my whole point.

Also I have to train someone at work so I won’t be able to get on for a bit.

Mint always saying what's on my mind.

On Mido voting Caps, I do not think it is a good idea for actives to target other actives day 1, but this is the kind of interaction that can pay off hard if only one is scum. Problem is chances wise these kinds of things happen a lot between two town and keep the game behind. There is also the super rare case of two scum staging it. I usually prefer doing that kind of case against someone only after we have at least one flip they have acted suspiciously on.

Don't remember why I quoted this.

You've changed your "point" like three times, but I will try to address your core point, which I think is this:


context: I said that it could be fun to start some wagons between the two inactives.
Your argument is that because they are both inactive, this is pointless.

What I meant by "it could be fun to start some wagons between them" was "it could be fun to have both get voted & see who votes where and why."

That way regardless of whether or not one of the two inactives a) flip and b) flip mafia, we might be able to discern their alignments based on future flips, regardless of whether or not they come back to post, by reading back to see how said flips interact with the wagons on the inactives. Do they vote for one? If so, why? Do they shy away from it? Who do they vote for instead? Why might they do this?

Starting wagons between two players is never pointless, regardless of their activity. Even in the case where both are scum, in this game of 13 people where 2 scum is incredibly unlikely, there will always be another player who has to make a decision to either bus one of the two or ignore it completely. I shouldn't have to explain this to you.


Eh, don't really like these points. It's so easy for people to just say "I voted because they were inactive" and that gives you no read into whether they're scum or town. Since both will do that.
 
Hate this post. Lol. Again, Wissen would be the best flip here, not Jaison.
Wissen would be a great flip if scum. A wissen town flip would not give us as much to work with as the jaison town flip did. And, unless the scum slip theory was correct (which could be as easily proven or disproven with a jaison flip), wissen statistically had more chances to be town than scum if spewing BS. Besides there was an off chance wissen spews BS and jaison is scum. Also wissen was subbed out so someone who could help read the slot would come, jaison was low activity with no signs of fixing it up. Jaison WAS the best opportunity cost flip at the time.
 
My bigger issue is him saying nothing more can be gained from RVS.
True.

Gentlefeather was not being swayed. Actually they had really good posts towards the end of the phase. So agreed
Re: gentlefeather - I have said I think Jamie looks townier based on just them coming in and voting with no hesitation rather than looking for approval, but I think both get townpoints from their eod1s.

Thinking about it now though, about 24hr removed from my last read I am wondering if maybe the act of voting jaison third is just in general NAI - finding it difficult to explain why. The fact of the matter is that when jamie voted there was no tie, but it prevented there from being a tie with someone else. So maybe Jamie just came in and voted whomever had the highest vote total just to vote. Which is actually more NAI to scummy, idk.

Point is, Gentlefeather still looks ok from EOD1.

Agreed. Also I just want to say I think LICH is either new or their first language isn’t English. That’s the feel I get from their posts, but I do think though they post less they’re at least being straightforward with them.

So I disagree with Pikos analysis of them. They don’t seem like a mess, just struggling with language maybe.
I generally think it's likely the latter because they do seem to have some understanding of mafia concepts and have given some analysis. Maybe new to forums mafia but not new to something like One Night or IRL mafia. My problem with LICH KING is that they have had the same reads since the beginning of the game pretty much and have not really bothered to a) back them up or b) expand to other players.

this is disagree with. For starters 1 vote isn’t really pressure but regardless I don’t see anything wrong with pressure. Even if the reasons are bad, the reactions may not be, and that can tell a lot. Though honestly a vote for just pressure at this point is pointless I think. We can start building cases.
My thought process here was - I don't mind the pressure, but because I disagree with Pikochu's reasons for scumreading Snowy, I felt that the pressure was better placed elsewhere. Also it's weird that Pikochu gave reasons for scumreading Snowy and then explicitly said the vote was for pressure. Gives the vibe that Piko doesn't believe in the read.
 
@Minish case on Piko

Please really look at Piko post 268, I will go grab a link of it for you in a while. Next important Piko post is 339.

291 is also a major post, Caps first case on Piko, the start of the wagon

Please excuse me the very mixed formatting inside this spoiler, I will try to make the next one with the quotes of the above numbers cleaner

Unvote
Vote: Pikochu


I'm really interested in seeing where these tied wagons will go

152: Piko shows up soon after wissen sub out again, only to feel the need to look active and tell us he will give us more later... When the wagons will be clearer and he can more safely take a stance that leads to a mislynch.

169: Even though Piko was asking about the everstone earlier, upon seeing the topic was dropped he also agrees there is not much point in continuing it.

Also 169, Piko is the first one to try to link me and Snowy. Our only interaction back then was his joke vote where I just replied "hi". Yet Piko is trying to imply me and Snowy are somehow related. Keep in mind he did vote Snowy early d2.

As of 172, I did single out Piko as acting differently than Raven/Caps already. I know I said I town leaned him at the time compared to his wissen vote era, but looking back it is just that at the time I thought Raven/Caps were pushier and that was somehow scummy, but this also meant that Piko was coastier in retrospect while the others were more scumhunty.

185: another Piko post that tries to look active while being NAI

200: Piko wants to know if the votals are wrong or not. As if he tries to fish if there is a vote affecting role in the people who voted there

243 : Snowy shows up and tries to stick close to me too much, voting Mido because she voted for me, even though I have made no attempt to link my cases with Snowy in any way yet. This is something that Piko and Mido capitalised a lot on later.

268: one of the BAD Piko posts. All the things outside the spoiler are NAI trying to look active, the reads in the spoiler are either too null or too easily changed around. He had me as town lean and Snowy as null, then he made cases on both of us! Also the Caps scum thing he dropped as it became increasingly clear Caps is not even close to being lynched today, something he could have realistically still hope for that early on based on what Mido said before against him.

More later. I absolutely WANT this post to end on 268. It is like the archetypal "Piko tries to do things, but then actually does not really, and in fact changes things around when convenient later" post!

86: Piko, despite not doing much aside from jokes up until that point, immediately jumps on wissen. It strikes me as odd the moment I read it.
90: I already start to very slightly suspect the possibility of Piko and wissen being buddies
101: Raven also votes wissen, first he suggests something, Piko uses that to vote one, Raven votes other. If both town, slightly sus
115: Piko, feeling safe enough with Raven and jaison as options, takes the vote back from wissen, because they talked, even though they did not say anything substantial
119: Piko shows up, quotes a few thing, says NAI meta stuff, then questions dawn dusk about the Everstone. In fact if he is scum he would love to know more about it (if it exists). And if he really believed dawn dusk has it, it would make sense to kill him for it, not risk him passing it to a scum to prevent them from ever getting a power role.
Ok, so the super bad Piko post was 268... When did Piko post again next? 339. Not holding being busy against him, but you all need to focus on the fact that A LOT has changed between 268 and 339, Piko even if busy, if scum, could have been informed by a buddy, or just skimmed the thread for like a few minutes getting to post this.

This should mean that between 268 and 339 so many things are going to change in his views. Compare and contrast his reads table (268) with what we have here...

Starts off with NAI small talk with Raven and ExLight. When he gets to a Caps point, he gets a bit too exclamation mark like. And what he suggests... That I give town more info on my visitor. This is what got him fired up, so much else in between but THIS is what he felt the need to emotionally ask about.

More NAI stuff, when does Piko get all capital letters again? When he gets to reply to Caps about his stuff being ironically called "incredibly profound". Not that the defense itself is substantial, just shouty.

340 just tells us he will be back to say more... Let us just consider he conveniently avoided all the talk about Mido and I etc. his first post after so long was just trying to give NAI "content" with some middle activity ones and trying to emotionally pressure Caps to take the vote of him.

... 346 is him again, the thread had not been super active for a while. More meta NAI stuff, some shade on me, trying again to make the case between him and me related to my visitor. Suggests that Caps and I are buddies. Says that it might look like an OMGUS but he wants Zexy/Caps wagons. Unvotes Snowy but avoids to commit on either Zexy or Caps...

Perhaps because he expected me to get afraid that if I do not get into his good graces, I will get ganged up on? I feel like he kinda wanted me to go back on my promise to not vote Caps today, hoping that I make the Caps case for him? Like, he was desperate to get an active lynched before he flips and it is too late as we would both look super good after his scum flip?

357, yet another Piko Raven NAI interaction. Piko Raven and Piko ExLight has LOTS of those.

358, Piko desperate to learn more about Jamie. Kinda tries to town lean ExLight, not sure why, it is very WIFOM. Outright votes me because I made it clear I also suspect him, Caps did not back out either, even if Mido is town, Piko has to use her vote on me to tie and hopefully survive.
 
For Minish sake

This is 268, Piko original super sus post
Post in thread 'Fire in the Garden: Kanto Starters Mafia: Day 2' Fire in the Garden: Kanto Starters Mafia: Day 2

This is 291 Post in thread 'Fire in the Garden: Kanto Starters Mafia: Day 2' Fire in the Garden: Kanto Starters Mafia: Day 2

And this is 339, Piko reply long after 268 when he has two votes on him
Post in thread 'Fire in the Garden: Kanto Starters Mafia: Day 2' Fire in the Garden: Kanto Starters Mafia: Day 2

Soon after this I make some more points against Piko back then, the quotes of my posts above are just the rundown of that
 
Just in case I don't finish catching up before EOD, what are the cases on Zexy and Piko? From my brief, brief reading so far I'd lean more towards voting Piko of the two but I've only read up to page 6 so far.
Zexy pushed for the jaison lynch + been a bit hypocritical regarding some stuff, I think Mint's post explain it fairly well. He's also been a core point of interaction, so his lynch could provide a pretty good amount of reads on other players.

Piko has been having extremely inconsistent with both reasoning + reads + votes, and been getting fairly overly defensive.
 
Pretty good point, lol.
I also don't like the "lynch snowy, and if he flips mafia feel free to lynch me". If he flips town are we supposed to townread???? You (Zexy) were constantly suggesting to lynch him instead despite being defending that slot.
He needs to back it up with progression. I'll be honest I kinda wanted to do that anyway because I didn't expect him to show up (and he hasn't) but now I have bigger fish to fry.

However, I agree that the "lynch them and then you can lynch me" philosophy is generally something I dislike in mafia, though I have used it in the past before this is generally how I feel now. If you are town you shouldn't advocate for your own lynch. And basing your innocence off the result of someone else before that result has been revealed is something mafia can easily do.

Again, the getting late part to vote might be theatrics, but I am skeptical of gentlefeather purposely drawing attention to themselves over something that changes nothing in that day's lynch.
You just said that you thought gentlefeather's not-vote guaranteed a mislynch, and now you're saying that gentlefeather's not-vote changes nothing in that day's lynch.

I think I understand your point but it's worded hella weird.

This is a horrible run down.
I actually thought it was a decent rundown without getting too deep into the minutiae.

But i guess that proves your other point about rundowns in general.

This sounds like you wanted to go after someone you knew you could pressure.
Is this insinuating a possible Piko/Snowy team?

all i can say is I didn't realize how close the deadline was and I'm used to ties = no lynch. wasnt sure if that's the process here or not but at that point it was a while since we had a tally, i didn't know how many people voted
and in case jaison was scum i wanted to prevent a situation where scum possibly voted last second to tie or flip
I can buy this.
 
A very laconic case on Piko:

Lots of NAI things trying to look active early on, not acknowledging he does that
Parrots Mido way too much on me, Snowy/Minish and Caps and establishing scum buddy theories about me with each. Mido asks him a lot about things, Piko does almost never reply back to Mido (either Mido is buddy or the most wrong of the active townies, in either case Piko has lots of reasons to subtly parrot)
Tried too much to fish out info on items/roles, if dawn dusk has an everstone and who visited me
A very safe reads list that was kinda flipped later when pressure stating building up on hin and he got more desperate
 
... Yeah, misuse of the "higher than" symbol as a point at the start of each line

That is a text box code thing I do not remember before, oh well
 
While as I’ve said nothing is wrong with snowy voting because I didn’t have an explanation during my initial vote. This part is red flags from you. It looks more like you’re trying to paint me in a bad light using snowy and Piko as a cover, and to make Zexy look good as though I’m some person abusing a poor defenseless child.
I can see how you would read it that way based on the tone. What I was trying to say with "Sounds reasonable to me" is that I felt that Snowy's vote was backed up by thought independent of Zexy. I.e., he wasn't trying to sheep or "parrot" or whateverWasn't trying to say anything about how I felt about Snowy's reasoning in general. I think that's where I think you're saying the red flags are coming from, feel free to clarify if wrong.

I should probably go reread the Snowy post. And can someone give me a damn definition on parroting and how it differs from sheeping already please?

Gentle was originally against voting inactives so I can see them waffling on the decision in an attempt for information but wondering which to pick.
Fair enough, though she did clarify that she voted specifically to prevent someone to make a tie at 2-2 because she thought a tie would end up in a no lynch.

Forcing reads is no good either. They’re superficial then. Not everyone needs to do reads. Some people like doing them some don’t. I hate them because i work off the logic of if I think you’re mafia I will take you down.
The difference between you and LICH KING is that you are making cases and LICH KING is not. Sure, LICH KING is being definitive and whatever but LICH KING has also been tunneling on me from the beginning of the game, and gives little evidence to actually form a case on it. So I am somewhat biased because I'm annoyed that I'm getting tunneled on and I wonder if LICH KING actually giving thoughts on other players besides just me and Zexy, or at least providing evidence to form a case, would help me look past that bias and feel better about them.

159: Caps says that starting two wagons is never a bad idea. Even though later he says I am jumpy for insisting on an A or B situation today.
Day 1 is one thing, Day 2 is another. People have stuff to make real, substantial cases on during Day 2. Most of the time I think wagons will form naturally on Day 2 without the need for people to force an A vs B situation as long as they push for who they think is scum. That is what happened in this game.

One minor detail on 268, he says Snowy null in the spoiler when other are more scum leans but still votes for Snowy, for "pressure". In retrospect it could be to connect him with me. Either Piko can predict very well what Mido will do, or Piko and Mido DO work together.
Piko does not say "Snowy null" in the spoiler. He says he has "serious red flags" on Snowy. I interpreted this as Piko having a scumread on Snowy and this is interpretation is kind of central to my initial vote. Here is the read since I have the post up since I wanted to double check this:

Snowy - Inactive in Day 1 and just barely posted anything of substance for Day 2. Actually, Snowy's Day 2 post rubs me off the wrong way because I feel it's just mostly parroting of what has been already said without actually trying to parrot. That post alone raises some serious red flags and there's not much else for me to work with from him.

Unvote
Vote: Pikochu


I'm really interested in seeing where these tied wagons will go
I kinda like this tie ngl.

….We’re you not just saying early how you are the type to bus even day one? So why suddenly can that not be true for Zexy?
Bussing with a vote D1 vs bussing with a lynch D3 = two very different scenarios.

I don't think it's impossible, but I think in this specific gamestate scum have reason to be very eager to keep their partners alive, for reasons I explained in that post.

This whole part of my argument is very wifom-y so I don't want to dwell on it too much. I can understand why people solely at face value, and especially looking just at D1 could see Zexy and I as potential scumbuddies. But my point here is if you spend even one second thinking a little bit deeper about the gamestate it makes no fucking sense.

Could be distancing. Just saying.
I spent a long time trying to respond to this post but I think I can just sum it up this way -

Yes, it could be distancing for Zexy to say this, but a) Piko doesn't say that and b) from town!Piko's perspective with a scumread on me and Zexy, where I am a high priority target for Zexy next phase, it would not benefit us as partners to turn on each other when Zexy is already going to be very suspicious Day 3.
 
Piko's "not much else to work with from him" on Snowy reads as null to me. He says Snowy is slight scum, but then turns it around to "actually I do not have enough on him", then votes him anyway (all in the same post), then takes it back and pushes me cuz Mido also does by saying I could be buddies with Snowy, but his case is different and not related to all that? Sorry not buying it. Too much dancing over his words and failure to acknowledge he is parroting.

At least when I agree on something with Caps, I say it, without being afraid I will be seen as sus for it, despite knowing that if we mess up I will look more liable than him, which is exactly what is happening here

Piko consistently fails to even touch the subject that he is parroting Mido. Even when Mido quotes him. He just does not reply.

Also, at least imo, sheeping and parroting is the same
 
... Not sure if Mido will hate me for this or just outright not care (she did say she won't even bother to read my post and tbh they are such a mess I do not take offense on her for that)

... But, I am not sure I am getting the quotes in time. Another offline thing I did not expect a few hours ago popped up.

To my defense, if it is worth anything, I am still trying to do as much as possible despite some huge projects staying behind.

Piko on the other hand... Nothing else yet, still no major acknowledgement of Mido.
 
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