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Mafia Great Expectations Mafia

It's an OMGUS vote but HD voted Poyzin?

It’s still possible to be an OMGUS vote if it comes from a scum mate. Could go either way.

I really don’t like the idea of voting Midorikawa based on picking strong players, when this game doesn’t even have nightkills to get information from the Mafia’s mind.
 
It’s still possible to be an OMGUS vote if it comes from a scum mate. Could go either way.
Assuming it was an OMGUS vote from a scummate when your vote on Poyzin seems to be an RVS vote, which RC is perfectly capable of realizing, is probably a wrong assumption. It wouldn't really be worth bothering with because RC would know that you most likely intended to remove that vote by the end of the day and you had no real reason to suspect Poy.
 
Poyzin on the other hand, the 3rd vote, is suspicious to me.
"The third vote must always be scum on any D1 wagon."
I'm not trying to say you're saying it with this level of absolute certainty. Just third voters being suspicious quite a bit of the time feels like it's being suggested.

I've never understood this concept. While I get that Poyzin's just bandwagon without giving any thoughts on anything at all, I feel like 3rd voters are perfectly capable of being town.

If I'm understanding the setup right the General gets to choose their own mafia team, personally if it was my choice the best options would be at least one of HD and Mido or both as the only reason for not choosing the strongest players is if you believe it's too obvious.
Upon thinking about it some more: Why wouldn't they think it's too obvious, though? HD and Mido definitively the strongest players and the General could easily realize that "if I pick them, they could just get lynched because all the townies realize they're the choices that make most sense and then I lose". It seems far more sensible to select them as the players to execute later, or to leave them to get mislynched on the grounds of being the obvious choices for Conspirators (exactly as might be happening to Mido right now and as was most likely going to happen to HD if he hadn't claimed :/).
 
@Midorikawa Where are you?

Doesn't automatically clear HD just on the basis on the claim alone but at least it's something that we can go off of.
Why shouldn't HD be considered town unless counterclaimed? It's an open setup, so we know his role is in the game, and the General chooses their kill targets in the pregame, so the real Loyalist would be at no extra risk by counterclaiming if HD were fakeclaiming. It would help the town for the actual Loyalist to counterclaim if HD is fakeclaiming by resulting in a scum lynch. There is absolutely no reason that I can see to not consider HD town as of now.

Forgot I was in this

Vote: HumanDawn
You wanna come in unvote HD or explain why you're not going to?
 
Why shouldn't HD be considered town unless counterclaimed? It's an open setup, so we know his role is in the game, and the General chooses their kill targets in the pregame, so the real Loyalist would be at no extra risk by counterclaiming if HD were fakeclaiming. It would help the town for the actual Loyalist to counterclaim if HD is fakeclaiming by resulting in a scum lynch. There is absolutely no reason that I can see to not consider HD town as of now.
In other words: if HD isn't the Loyalist, the actual Loyalist would most likely counterclaim him.
 
it really depends on who is the general though. I think it's suspicious of you to state this while unvoting Human - like you're still implying he should get voted but you're not going to vote him yourself.

Tood gave a reason for voting which made sense - Poyzin on the other hand, the 3rd vote, is suspicious to me.
Working on the theory the general would choose the stronger players for their team I said my suspicions were HD and Mido, given HD's claim seems to discount him it makes sense to put my vote on Mido who was the other player I suspect would have been chosen.

It's an OMGUS vote but HD voted Poyzin?
Indeed, wondering if @Pikochu made a mistake as I quoted Space who voted me in the post where I voted for HD or if this is a slip as he only glanced at my post and thought it was a good reason to use for the vote?

It’s still possible to be an OMGUS vote if it comes from a scum mate. Could go either way.

I really don’t like the idea of voting Midorikawa based on picking strong players, when this game doesn’t even have nightkills to get information from the Mafia’s mind.
Having a stronger player on your team may not be as big an advantage as in a normal game, but it does still provides the advantage of not having to face them plus the player choosing may not consider it's not as big of an advantage as they thought.

"The third vote must always be scum on any D1 wagon."
I'm not trying to say you're saying it with this level of absolute certainty. Just third voters being suspicious quite a bit of the time feels like it's being suggested.

I've never understood this concept. While I get that Poyzin's just bandwagon without giving any thoughts on anything at all, I feel like 3rd voters are perfectly capable of being town.


Upon thinking about it some more: Why wouldn't they think it's too obvious, though? HD and Mido definitively the strongest players and the General could easily realize that "if I pick them, they could just get lynched because all the townies realize they're the choices that make most sense and then I lose". It seems far more sensible to select them as the players to execute later, or to leave them to get mislynched on the grounds of being the obvious choices for Conspirators (exactly as might be happening to Mido right now and as was most likely going to happen to HD if he hadn't claimed :/).
Kind of the same reason I gave in reply to HD's post, they may not have realised it might not be as big an advantage as though and still feared playing against them. Only way to know really is to test the theory, I know it's a risk but we would pretty much have to go for a random lynch anyway.

Either way I think this lynch would give us more information as if Mido flips scum I'd take a look at Space and Piko, my reason for Piko being his potential slip and easy vote and Space due to how quickly their random vote became solid suspicion. If Mido flips town you may well wish to look at me but I'd be more suspicious of those who followed me so easily.
 
Either way I think this lynch would give us more information as if Mido flips scum I'd take a look at Space and Piko, my reason for Piko being his potential slip and easy vote and Space due to how quickly their random vote became solid suspicion. If Mido flips town you may well wish to look at me but I'd be more suspicious of those who followed me so easily.
Regardless of Mido's flip (or even if she flips) I feel like the people sheeping after you should be considered. If Mido's town, it would make me at least a little bit inclined to think that you're scum trying to take out the bigger threats as quickly as possible. Random votes become solid suspicions sometimes, so I don't know that I would be suspicious of Space on the grounds of that just because Mido flips scum, since I can see her reasons behind her suspicion and there's always a chance your RVS vote does something you find suspicious. Piko maybe but I'd like to hear more from him first. (Actually, I'd like to hear quite a bit more from everyone except HD. Come on people, y'all can do better than 0-3 posts a day.)

Having a stronger player on your team may not be as big an advantage as in a normal game, but it does still provides the advantage of not having to face them plus the player choosing may not consider it's
Kind of the same reason I gave in reply to HD's post, they may not have realised it might not be as big an advantage as though and still feared playing against them. Only way to know really is to test the theory, I know it's a risk but we would pretty much have to go for a random lynch anyway.
Your entire theory stands on the pillar that the General didn't put a lot of thought into choosing their scumteam: This is unlikely, because the General likely would want to have the scumteam to give them the best chance of winning, and thus wouldn't pick on their first instinct in order to allow themselves to decide who that is.
 
(Actually, I'd like to hear quite a bit more from everyone except HD. Come on people, y'all can do better than 0-3 posts a day.)
And by this I mean he's a lot closer to a decent level of activity then most of the game it's so horribly inactive here really.
 
And by this I mean he's a lot closer to a decent level of activity then most of the game it's so horribly inactive here really.
Or most people have been anyway.

Considering we have to vote and have no nighttime actions to go off of, I think Mido seems like a good option here. I never like to random vote, but the best we can do is talk and maybe ask some game-related questions just to get conversation flowing. That said:
So why is this game sn exception to you not liking random votes? Sure, why have to lynch someone, but it doesn't have to be on the grounds of nothing except "this person is the obvious choice to pick for scumteam".

It's better than a random shot in the dark, I guess.
Why is it better than a random shot in the dark, really? People have discussed why picking HD or Mido for the scumteam wouldn't be a good idea, and the General could probably come to the same conclusion, so a random shot could have the same if not better success rate for scum in this case.
 
Also,
Vote: Poyzin
Kinda also considering RC or maybe Tood, but I can see RC's logic from a town perspective, even if I really don't agree with it. Poyzin's one singular post contains no thought whatsoever and is just sheeping. (Tood's two posts are also just sheeping but at least she gives something in the first one.)
 
why is the thread not pinging me anymore
Upon thinking about it some more: Why wouldn't they think it's too obvious, though? HD and Mido definitively the strongest players and the General could easily realize that "if I pick them, they could just get lynched because all the townies realize they're the choices that make most sense and then I lose". It seems far more sensible to select them as the players to execute later, or to leave them to get mislynched on the grounds of being the obvious choices for Conspirators (exactly as might be happening to Mido right now and as was most likely going to happen to HD if he hadn't claimed :/).
See, now I'm getting paranoid that I'm falling for someone's trap :confused_emoji:, but all the discussion here seems to be centered on whether or not the general is trying to employ reverse-psychological tactics on us, which is admittedly confusing the hell out of me

I'd still like to hear from Mido, and there's still a bit more time to consider me moving my vote, so I'll stay where I am for now, I guess.

Also I might be misunderstanding the setup, but it seems kind of busted that people can kind of openly claim without risk of being NK'd. Even getting killed D4 is entirely dependent on whether or not the general chooses the loyalist (and prince?) as a kill target, which is completely luck-based since it happens before the game even starts.
 
Regardless of Mido's flip (or even if she flips) I feel like the people sheeping after you should be considered. If Mido's town, it would make me at least a little bit inclined to think that you're scum trying to take out the bigger threats as quickly as possible. Random votes become solid suspicions sometimes, so I don't know that I would be suspicious of Space on the grounds of that just because Mido flips scum, since I can see her reasons behind her suspicion and there's always a chance your RVS vote does something you find suspicious. Piko maybe but I'd like to hear more from him first. (Actually, I'd like to hear quite a bit more from everyone except HD. Come on people, y'all can do better than 0-3 posts a day.)
I agree that would be a good reason for scum to get rid of Mido and people sheeping should be considered regardless of the flip, but also to be considered is it would be a pretty bold move to day 1 as scum just go straight for leading the lynch on the strongest player knowing the attention and backlash that would come afterwards. My suspicion of Space kind of has a bit of gut feeling involved in it too but I didn't state that as part of my reasoning as it isn't anything solid.

Your entire theory stands on the pillar that the General didn't put a lot of thought into choosing their scumteam: This is unlikely, because the General likely would want to have the scumteam to give them the best chance of winning, and thus wouldn't pick on their first instinct in order to allow themselves to decide who that is.
If the General has put a lot of time and though into their selection then this may be less likely to be the case, but on the flip side based on his claim it looks like HD isn't the General so that would be one of the more experienced players out of the running who may put more thought into the selection.

Mido liked a post and did not post! Wah
Yeah, noticed that too.

Also,
Vote: Poyzin
Kinda also considering RC or maybe Tood, but I can see RC's logic from a town perspective, even if I really don't agree with it. Poyzin's one singular post contains no thought whatsoever and is just sheeping. (Tood's two posts are also just sheeping but at least she gives something in the first one.)
I agree there isn't much to Poyzin and Tood's posts as they don't really give much of their own reasons for following my lead, Pinwheel looks a bit better as they gave more of their own reasoning and thoughts.

If you wish to lynch me although I'd prefer to avoid it as it's still a town loss, it would confirm my intentions in the game thus far and may give insight several players as I've been one of the more active players so far and generated a fair amount of attention.

why is the thread not pinging me anymore

See, now I'm getting paranoid that I'm falling for someone's trap :confused_emoji:, but all the discussion here seems to be centered on whether or not the general is trying to employ reverse-psychological tactics on us, which is admittedly confusing the hell out of me

I'd still like to hear from Mido, and there's still a bit more time to consider me moving my vote, so I'll stay where I am for now, I guess.

Also I might be misunderstanding the setup, but it seems kind of busted that people can kind of openly claim without risk of being NK'd. Even getting killed D4 is entirely dependent on whether or not the general chooses the loyalist (and prince?) as a kill target, which is completely luck-based since it happens before the game even starts.
Yeah, it's kind of a second guessing type of thing, do we think the General would do what seems may be the obvious move or go for something more counter-intuitive.
 
I'd still like to hear from Mido
We all want to hear from Mido.

but all the discussion here seems to be centered on whether or not the general is trying to employ reverse-psychological tactics on us, which is admittedly confusing the hell out of me
It's not really as about whether the General's trying to do that (though it has been mentioned), it's more about whether or not the General would likely have considered the disadvantages of choosing the obvious players for their team. Which, hopefully, a less confusing concept to consider.

we would pretty much have to go for a random lynch anyway.
Uh, no, we would not have to go for a random lynch or a mostly random lynch. I'm fairly certain you've been playing long enough to know that D1 lynches are not usually random, even if the cases surrounding them aren't often very strong.

If the General has put a lot of time and though into their selection then this may be less likely to be the case, but on the flip side based on his claim it looks like HD isn't the General so that would be one of the more experienced players out of the running who may put more thought into the selection.
The more experienced players aren't the only people with the capacity to think and consider their options. Just because they've been playing Mafia longer and are objectively, doesn't mean everyone else is incapable of considering the fact that the obvious choices are obvious.
 
Considering we know that the Loyalist and Prince are randed after the General picks, and that the game took ages to start, wouldn’t that imply that there is a possibility General took a while to pick somebody as well? In that case, wouldn’t it be somebody who doesn’t frequent the forum as much like Poyzin because they may not have been aware that DekuNut sent them a RolePM?
 
Considering we know that the Loyalist and Prince are randed after the General picks, and that the game took ages to start, wouldn’t that imply that there is a possibility General took a while to pick somebody as well? In that case, wouldn’t it be somebody who doesn’t frequent the forum as much like Poyzin because they may not have been aware that DekuNut sent them a RolePM?
No, because everyone confirmed their roles over a week ago.
 
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