Mafia Hollywood Mafia-After Game Party ( Mafia and Hitman Win)

[Spiritual Mask Salesman]

any

*anyone

 

[Midorikawa]

Does any even care who I think is scum, apparently I'm scum here for a completely logical vote on Ex.

I care

 

[ExLight]

Why are you panicking
is it because town hit scum already so you can't afford more losses

Since you're here, care to explain why you just left your vote on me during the entire phase and didn't attempt to discuss the main lynch wagons?
Seems like an attempt of distancing from the mislynch by sitting on a wagon that didn't have much speed.

And what do you mean by contradiction about Tood? I was always townleaning him, it was never a hard town read and I already explained that to you.

Would you mind giving us a small readslist now that HD flipped?

 

[TheCapsFan]

Does any even care who I think is scum, apparently I'm scum here for a completely logical vote on Ex.

If I didn't care, I wouldn't ask.

And your logical vote on Ex is only one of the reasons I suspect you.

 

[Midorikawa]

Tood is probably Town

I'm not sure about Tood

And what do you mean by contradiction about Tood? I was always townleaning him, it was never a hard town read and I already explained that to you.

Yup no contradictions here folks.

Would you mind giving us a small readslist now that HD flipped?

As everyone wakes up, and we take count on who is still alive, HumanDawn was the one Killed Last Night. upon further inspection, he was killed by a mixture of being sprayed by an inhaler and being hit in the head with a slingshot, and That he was Pennywise From IT

Yeah beautiful flip. So much info to build a readslist from.

I’m starting to think you’re mafia which is why you’re so sure there’s a poisoner. So if there is a second death, that shall confirm you as Maia in my mind. Which is why I’m not voting you right now. I just want that last little confirmation if you’re just playing really badly or slipping up.

vote: Cyanide.

I think there was scum in the chib wagon. And CyanideCrystal has been quiet this day phase.

Also was Minish always in this game?

 

[Jinjo]

I feel like a Poisoner is a lot more likely than a we getting Doctor or Bus driver correctly.
These require more people to guess correctly which is unlikely.

Just don't let your guard down.
If we conclude there are no Poisoners we can probably clear people later in the game.

I don't understand why you would think there is a poisoner in the game. Bus driver looks more likely than a poisoner since it takes another night for a kill to happen when the poisoner ability is used.

 

[ExLight]

Yup no contradictions here folks.

WHAT PART OF TOWNLEAN =/= TOWNCONFIRMED YALL DON'T GET

If I said I was sure Tood was town I'd be saying I'm like 100% sure he's town, which I'm not

Yeah beautiful flip. So much info to build a readslist from.

People that played multiple of Rasul/Storm's games said it's very likely HD was mafia, and I believe them.
Unless you have any reason to believe the opposite I'm going to treat him as mafia that died, if you disagree I'd like to see your reasoning behind it.

I’m starting to think you’re mafia which is why you’re so sure there’s a poisoner. So if there is a second death, that shall confirm you as Maia in my mind. Which is why I’m not voting you right now. I just want that last little confirmation if you’re just playing really badly or slipping up.

what

I'm literally just presenting a viable possibility, if I actually manage to solve a bit of the game with basic logic that makes me scum? what?
Why would I even present that possibility if I was mafia instead of letting it just happen and confuse town?

Your push is just weird and nonsensical at this point. Even if I'm wrong we know there might be a Vigilante if HD was mafia, so 2 kills is likely if they don't holster. You know there are high odds of there being 2 kills even if there's no Poisoner and you're just setting up a mislynch next Day Phase at this point.
I could see it if 3 people flipped, but even if I was a Poisoner, I could just poison again and there would be only the 2 expected kills, so once again this point of yours makes no sense.

Can't tell if you're suffering of Exnoia again or if you're just completely off track.
I want your opinions on SMS/Fatima and on HD though.

Also was Minish always in this game?

Yea, she was busy with another game.
@Minish do you have any reads so far?

 

[ExLight]

I don't understand why you would think there is a poisoner in the game. Bus driver looks more likely than a poisoner since it takes another night for a kill to happen when the poisoner ability is used.

Because the odds of a Bus Driver hitting mafia with their nightkill N1 is 2.27% (1/12 * 3/11)
And the chance of Doctor that can't self target stopping a mafia kill N1 is 1.01% (1/9 * 1/11)

 

[ExLight]

Alternatively, someone roleblocking or straight up redirecting the mafia kill is a 9.09% (1/11) chance

That being said all of those are pretty low, and I don't see why Poisoner is less likely to be a thing.
I've played around 4 or 5 games in ZD that had Poisoners, one of them very recently that ended up with a N2 perfect mafia win because noone expected it.
Better safe then sorry.

 

[ExLight]

Actually, I think Bus Driving is 4.54% and Redirecting/Deflecting is 2.27% hmm

 

[DawningWinds]

Also was Minish always in this game?

In.

I'm still in.

Yes.

Alternatively, someone roleblocking or straight up redirecting the mafia kill is a 9.09% (1/11) chance

That being said all of those are pretty low, and I don't see why Poisoner is less likely to be a thing.
I've played around 4 or 5 games in ZD that had Poisoners, one of them very recently that ended up with a N2 perfect mafia win because noone expected it.
Better safe then sorry.

Actually, I think Bus Driving is 4.54% and Redirecting/Deflecting is 2.27% hmm

I think they're saying Bus Driver and Doctor are more likely to exist.

 

[ExLight]

I think they're saying Bus Driver and Doctor are more likely to exist.

There's a pretty big gap between existing and successfully carrying their actions N1.
I agree they're more common roles, but when I consider the odds of them explaining the Night Events it's just kinda no to me.

I feel like Poisoner isn't too bad of a guess despite it being a more unusual role and doesn't rely on sheer luck like blindly using those protective/disruptive actions.
If we have something like a Poisoner Doctor it would be nice if they healed Minish/Midorikawa/funnier/me since we might be more likely targets for it tho.

Anyway, I'm just considering an imo-not-so-tinfoily "worst" case scenario here.

 

[Tood]

Doesn't the poisoner theory also assume a vigilante hit HD? I think that's the main issue I have with it.

I still don't believe that a vig would fire N1 like that. Alignments don't flip, so we have nothing too concrete to work with right now. I feel as though it would have been a literal shot in the dark for a vig to try and kill scum with such a method.

The simplest explanation I can think of is that HD was indep (or town, although that is unlikely since that alignment doesn't fit the character) and was killed by mafia.

Everything else seems to fall into the realm of being extremely improbable to have happened.

 

[ExLight]

I've seen plenty of Vigilantes that shoot N1

and HD might've been killed by a Serial Killer too but I feel like that is a bit more unlikely

 

[Midorikawa]

I want your opinions on SMS/Fatima and on HD though.

....................

READ MY POSTS!!!

Ive already stated my opinion On human multiple times!

And what do you expect me to say about SMS? I made my stance about Fatima clear. And SMS hasn’t been active. I won’t scumread someone for not participating. Lurking I will but when they are willing not playing I’m not going to bother and I’ll let the host deal with it.

If I said I was sure Tood was town I'd be saying I'm like 100% sure he's town, which I'm not

Read what you write. You keep contradicting yourself it’s ridiculous.

People that played multiple of Rasul/Storm's games said it's very likely HD was mafia, and I believe them.
Unless you have any reason to believe the opposite I'm going to treat him as mafia that died, if you disagree I'd like to see your reasoning behind it.

No flips. Humans actions. Rasul not being a normal host. I’ve stated these already. Do I need to repeat a 100 times more or will you finally start reading my posts?

I'm literally just presenting a viable possibility, if I actually manage to solve a bit of the game with basic logic that makes me scum? what?
Why would I even present that possibility if I was mafia instead of letting it just happen and confuse town?

Basic logic? There is no basic logic. Not to mention you’re discounting other people’s logic.

I've seen plenty of Vigilantes that shoot N1

and HD might've been killed by a Serial Killer too but I feel like that is a bit more unlikely

I haven’t. And I’ve been playing for years.

Stop treating your super unlikely possibility as more likely than others. Because guess what: bus driver, bulletproof, deathproof, Doctor, lightning rod,

There are so many effing roles that would explain a strange mafia kill.

Vig, bomb, bus driver, pumpkin

Tons f roles that explain a possible non townie dying.

percents mean nothing. Trust me.

 

[Midorikawa]

and HD might've been killed by a Serial Killer

Also no it’s not. Human is our representative so anyone can agree he’s a skilled player. So anyone not of his alignment would want to take him out. So no it’s not unlikely.

That’s like saying cop would rather check the alignment of a new player over an experienced player That is notorious for being good at mafia alignment.

 

[DarkGodRasul]

Vote Count
SMS: 2(Caps, Exlight)
CyCry: 1 (Midori)
Not Voting: CyCry, DW, SMS, Funnier, Jinjo, Minish, Snake PD, Tood

Post Count (as of day start)
Caps-IIIII
CyCry
DW-I
Exlight-IIIIII IIIIII IIIIII IIIIII II
SMS-IIIII III
Funnier
Jinjo-II
Midorikawa-IIIII IIIII I
Minish-III
Snake PD-I
Tood-II

Day One Ends June 21st at 4PM EST

 

[DekuNut]

@CyanideCrystal @DawningWinds @Jinjo @Officer Snake and @Tood have yet to make 3 postd

 

[CyanideCrystal]

Oh shit I'm sorry I didn't get notifications for some reason?

 

[CyanideCrystal]

Ok so I think HD might be Mafia and then it makes a lot of sense that SMS is mafia too but I'm leaning towards him being a serial killer/some kind of independent.

Pennywise was more of a wild card that attacked humans indiscriminately and wasnt known to work in a group. If he got killed the first night would he not be able to kill someone else at the same time thought? Or is the Mafia kill first in order?