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Mafia Homestuck Mafia, Act 1 - 4/13 - Endgame: Agents of Derse win!

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Re: Homestuck Mafia, Act 1 - 3/19/13 - Intermission 5: The Note Desolation Plays

Let the record show that I was totally about to claim Cop if the kill failed. I had the whole spiel planned out. :-/

Good game, all! Thanks for hosting @Phoenicks and @twinArmageddons!
 
Re: Homestuck Mafia, Act 1 - 3/19/13 - Intermission 5: The Note Desolation Plays

Thanks for hosting, Phoenicks and hurristat! And gg, everyone.

I'd join a sequel to this game, hopefully it would be more active.
 
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Re: Homestuck Mafia, Act 1 - 3/19/13 - Intermission 5: The Note Desolation Plays

Good job.
 
Re: Homestuck Mafia, Act 1 - 3/19/13 - Intermission 5: The Note Desolation Plays

Let the record show that I was totally about to claim Cop if the kill failed. I had the whole spiel planned out. :-/

Did you plan on making the spiel actually work out in the end?
 
Re: Homestuck Mafia, Act 1 - 3/19/13 - Intermission 5: The Note Desolation Plays

Of course. I would have come forward with a guilty (probably Mijzelffan, the idea that he was clear just for being a reporter was kinda silly) and I only needed to pick up one Townie behind me, or for one Townie to not vote, to pull out the win. Explaining Nepeta's fakeclaim would have been exceedingly easy, as well, and in a game with a Miller and Backup Cop nobody was going to lynch a claimed Cop without a counterclaim - and since you helpfully provided us with a list of all the Town's roles, we knew there wouldn't be a counterclaim.

It was very doable and I'm not particularly interested in having a post-game debate about whether or not it would have succeeded. ;-)
 
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Re: Homestuck Mafia, Act 1 - 3/19/13 - Intermission 5: The Note Desolation Plays

It was very doable and I'm not particularly interested in having a post-game debate about whether or not it would have succeeded. ;-)

I can at least share my opinion on how it would have not succeeded and how the events would have turned out. I'd have liked a debate just for some more fun. ;-)

Of course. I would have come forward with a guilty (probably Mijzelffan, the idea that he was clear just for being a reporter was kinda silly) and I only needed to pick up one Townie behind me, or for one Townie to not vote, to pull out the win. Explaining Nepeta's fakeclaim would have been exceedingly easy, as well, and in a game with a Miller and Backup Cop nobody was going to lynch a claimed Cop without a counterclaim - and since you helpfully provided us with a list of all the Town's roles, we knew there wouldn't be a counterclaim.

Firstly, that would already go against your original claim, which would already raise doubts. You've said plenty of times that you "had no reason not to trust" me, which would be contradictory already and making the explanation hard. Secondly, if the Nightkill target was Mijzelffan, and he was Doctor protected, with no Nightkill successfully happening, that would make him even more clear. It would not just be the Reporter claim, which we figured couldn't come from any of the Derse Agents, but Dave. With Yatagarasu being the Doctor, having successfully protected both me and Mijzelffan, that would leave only you and Tailisu10. I wouldn't call it "very doable", and it mostly relies on thinking that the Town itself wouldn't have figured out that there was no Cop in the first place. I think it would have just caused some initial confusion, with either you or Tailisu10 being lynched in the end.
 
Re: Homestuck Mafia, Act 1 - 3/19/13 - Intermission 5: The Note Desolation Plays

It only requires that I convince you that Mijz and Yatagarasu were the remaining scum deceiving you.

Even if we'd ended up lynching Tailisu (which I admit was looking pretty likely), in the end I still would have only needed one mislynch - and you were not going to get the Town to unanimously vote to lynch the uncounterclaimed Cop in a setup with a Backup Cop and a Miller.

We can argue 20/20 hindsight if you'd like, and I'm sure you all would have suspected me privately, but it's suicide to publicly accuse the Cop once they've claimed and are uncountered - on Bulba, at least. I only needed to bluster my way through one phase. :p
 
Re: Homestuck Mafia, Act 1 - 3/19/13 - Intermission 5: The Note Desolation Plays

It only requires that I convince you that Mijz and Yatagarasu were the remaining scum deceiving you.

How would you have done that? You'd need to explain the lack of two Nightkills, the one in Night 1 and Night 5, how Mijzelffan could not be Dave, who had not died yet in the game, and how Yatagarasu could have not been the Doctor.

Even if we'd ended up lynching Tailisu (which I admit was looking pretty likely), in the end I still would have only needed one mislynch - and you were not going to get the Town to unanimously vote to lynch the uncounterclaimed Cop in a setup with a Backup Cop and a Miller.

It would have an uncounterclaimed Doctor that successfully protected me and Mijzelffan, thus clearing both of us fully and explain the lack of a Nightkill. Mafia Doctors exist, true, but then she'd have picked to Nightkill someone else which guarantee her victory, not Mijzelffan, who she claimed to have protected. Your theory there still revolves around us not figuring out that there could be no Cop. Mijzelffan, me and Yatagarasu would have proved our power roles, leaving only you. If Tailisu10 was then lynched, you could have possibly let a Nightkill in, and whoever you'd have killed would have let

We can argue 20/20 hindsight if you'd like, and I'm sure you all would have suspected me privately, but it's suicide to publicly accuse the Cop once they've claimed and are uncountered - on Bulba, at least. I only needed to bluster my way through one phase. :p

It wouldn't be suicide if you were cleared. Trying to accuse Yatagarasu, the uncounterclaimed Doctor that would have had 2 successful Nightkill Doctor protections would have been suicide for you ;). You already claimed something else to somebody you had "no reason not to trust", and gave the same exact claim Nepeta gave. Again, your theory that it would have been "very doable" still revolves around us not figuring out there was no Cop. I'd say we surely would have with how me, Yatagarasu and Mijzelffan were cleared. Yes, you would have needed to bluster your way to explain every possibility how you could be the actual Cop and how Yatagarasu and Mijzelffan were the last Mafia. It would have been very entertaining, but I still bet that the end result would have been you being lynched and at least 2 Townies winning.
 
Re: Homestuck Mafia, Act 1 - 3/19/13 - Intermission 5: The Note Desolation Plays

Doc-claim crumbles when you remember that scum don't actually have to kill every night.

You're left to decide if scum would fakeclaim cop or doctor.

I had no reason not to trust that you were town, but that doesn't mean I trust you with my actual roleclaim. We've talked about that before, I believe.

I knew Nepeta's claim because the hosts provided me with my predecessor's PMs, a mechanic that is easily verifiable.

It would have been a challenge, but a "very doable" challenge, and I love a good challenge. And yes, I really do think the Town wouldn't have figured out that there wasn't a Cop, they had every reason to believe there was one. The Doctor's role was not "proven" because she could have no-killed to "prove" her role. Only Mijzelffan and you had proven roles, neither of which were guaranteed to be town-aligned.
 
Re: Homestuck Mafia, Act 1 - 3/19/13 - Intermission 5: The Note Desolation Plays

Doc-claim crumbles when you remember that scum don't actually have to kill every night.

Doc-claim advances when the host says that it may be the last Night Phase. If there was no Doctor, no way for the Mafia kill to fail, then obviously Phoenicks would have already ended the game. That would require more lying, like maybe Tailisu10 could have claimed 1x Deathproof, although, why he'd be the target would be a mystery, and it wouldn't make Yatagarasu or Mijzelffan look scummy.

You're left to decide if scum would fakeclaim cop or doctor.

They'd fakeclaim Cop if they could.

I had no reason not to trust that you were town, but that doesn't mean I trust you with my actual roleclaim. We've talked about that before, I believe.

Valid point, but it's still suspicious.

I knew Nepeta's claim because the hosts provided me with my predecessor's PMs, a mechanic that is easily verifiable.

Ahh. But then Nepeta is a different player.

It would have been a challenge, but a "very doable" challenge, and I love a good challenge. And yes, I really do think the Town wouldn't have figured out that there wasn't a Cop, they had every reason to believe there was one. The Doctor's role was not "proven" because she could have no-killed to "prove" her role. Only Mijzelffan and you had proven roles, neither of which were guaranteed to be town-aligned.

It would have had a... 5% chance of success in my opinion. Then it could have been possibly like a case in DrumBeats' Fire Emblem Mafia. There was a Mafia Rolecop that if they died, the Town Rolecop's powers would then work. It's true that we had every reason to believe there was one, but that doesn't necessarily mean we had to believe it, and that the Cop was really Town. Phoenicks pretty much proved it when he said it could be the last Night Phase. Once Tailisu10 would have been lynched, not having turned up as 1x Deathproof/Nightkill Immune it would have been pretty obvious that there was no way you could have been Town.

I'd have proven my ability with the QT Link, Mijzelffan being Dave with his Reporter ability along with being successfully, and Yatagarasu would have proven to be the Doctor with Phoenicks' Night One Flavor Text having the theme "Doctor" in it, proving that it was due to Doctor Protection, not because of a lack of Nightkill. There would have been just no reason for me to suspect either Yatagarasu or Mijzelffan, leaving only you.
 
Re: Homestuck Mafia, Act 1 - 3/19/13 - Intermission 5: The Note Desolation Plays

I think you underestimate me.

Let's keep it that way.
 
Re: Homestuck Mafia, Act 1 - 3/19/13 - Intermission 5: The Note Desolation Plays

I think you underestimate me.

Let's keep it that way.

I think you're the one underestimating me ;-).
 
Re: Homestuck Mafia, Act 1 - 3/19/13 - Intermission 5: The Note Desolation Plays

I'm not particularly interested in having a post-game debate about whether or not it would have succeeded.

EDIT: I'm a glutton for punishment, however, so I would like to point this out:

You projected a 5% chance that I would be successful. That's why I said you underestimate me. That's insultingly low. It also misses the point: That's the likelihood that you would believe me, which is entirely different from the likelihood that I would time the claim right to throw the town into temporary confusion, briefly divide the vote tally, and Tailisu and I would succeed in swooping in and tying the votes right before deadline.

I didn't need you, or anyone, to believe me in order to win. I just needed to cause the right amount of confusion at the right time. That was "very doable." It is also why I don't want to speculate on whether or not you guys would have all independently figured out what was happening quickly enough to stop it or not, because it's pretty unpredictable at that point - but it's what would have been necessary to stand a chance of winning in that scenario, so taking that risk is certainly better than not.

I'd give it between 40-55% chance of success, with probably a 10-15% chance of you all actually believing I was Town.
 
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Re: Homestuck Mafia, Act 1 - 3/19/13 - Intermission 5: The Note Desolation Plays

You projected a 5% chance that I would be successful. That's why I said you underestimate me. That's insultingly low. It also misses the point: That's the likelihood that you would believe me, which is entirely different from the likelihood that I would time the claim right to throw the town into temporary confusion, briefly divide the vote tally, and Tailisu and I would succeed in swooping in and tying the votes right before deadline.

I said that it was the likelihood that it would succeed overall. I don't believe that it's the likelihood that I'd believe you. That's saying that all 3 of us wouldn't have voted you or Tailisu10, and the deadline is in 24 hours. If we didn't believe you we would have all voted for you.

I didn't need you, or anyone, to believe me in order to win. I just needed to cause the right amount of confusion at the right time. That was "very doable." It is also why I don't want to speculate on whether or not you guys would have all independently figured out what was happening quickly enough to stop it or not, because it's pretty unpredictable at that point - but it's what would have been necessary to stand a chance of winning in that scenario, so taking that risk is certainly better than not.

Ahh. So the confusion is "very doable" now, not the plan. Of course it's better to take the risk, but just claiming Cop would have not been enough for it to actually succeed in the end.

I'd give it between 40-55% chance of success, with probably a 10-15% chance of you all actually believing I was Town.

I'm pretty sure I know what I'd have thought and done in the end. I think I also know Mijzelffan and Yatagarasu well enough that they wouldn't let you win either. Honestly, with such a low chance of us believing you(I'd say it's even lower than that), a 40-55% chance of success is pushing it.
 
I'm only saying that you're confusing "convincing" with "winning." You can accomplish one without the other.

Anyway, the only reason I allowed myself to be dragged into this debate was because I called my plan "very doable" and you took issue with that - of course it was doable. Whether or not it would succeed is a separate question, but the idea that it couldn't succeed is ludicrous.

This is all futile - the game is over, and the outcome is decided. Debating "Well, I think I would have won if X hadn't happened," is pointless.
 
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