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And then there's Movie 22. Unless TPCI makes a surprise announcement within the next few weeks (which is possible, slim as those chances are) their version of the film's not going to come out until after the Japanese home video release. And then by that point it'll be too late. A lot of people are just going to bootleg the Japanese version in December and then move on, never bothering to watch the English dub like they would have if the movie had come out on time.
I agree with everything but this. I don't think people will bother to watch the Japanese version, because it seems very faithful to the original and thus is a more predictable experience. Watching the dub on the other hand answers a lot of questions for many, about the music both vocal and instrumental, the faithfulness of the script, the cast, etc. For me and others, I only have interest in watching the dub because otherwise the movie seems vastly inferior to the original M01. Maybe some "casuals" would agree to watch it in Japanese, but...they do even know the movie exists?
In concussion, I doubt an unofficial subbed Japanese release would overshadow a dub release in terms of popularity.