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Is the English dub on its last legs?

And then there's Movie 22. Unless TPCI makes a surprise announcement within the next few weeks (which is possible, slim as those chances are) their version of the film's not going to come out until after the Japanese home video release. And then by that point it'll be too late. A lot of people are just going to bootleg the Japanese version in December and then move on, never bothering to watch the English dub like they would have if the movie had come out on time.

I agree with everything but this. I don't think people will bother to watch the Japanese version, because it seems very faithful to the original and thus is a more predictable experience. Watching the dub on the other hand answers a lot of questions for many, about the music both vocal and instrumental, the faithfulness of the script, the cast, etc. For me and others, I only have interest in watching the dub because otherwise the movie seems vastly inferior to the original M01. Maybe some "casuals" would agree to watch it in Japanese, but...they do even know the movie exists?

In concussion, I doubt an unofficial subbed Japanese release would overshadow a dub release in terms of popularity.
 
I don't think people will bother to watch the Japanese version, because it seems very faithful to the original and thus is a more predictable experience.

The overwhelming majority of fans haven't seen Movie 1 in Japanese though. For the average person, Movie 22 (which is going to be a LOT easier to find fansubbed than Movie 1 currently is) will be the first time they're seeing a Mewtwo voiced by Masachika Ichimura, or a version of this film with Shinji Miyazaki's music score, or a version with "Kaze to Issho ni" playing in context.

People generally tend to watch whatever they have easy access to. If people start talking about Mewtwo Strikes Back Evolution in mid-December and the only version that's out there is a fansub of the Japanese version then that's the version they're going to watch, regardless of preferences. If the English dub is out at this point then that's the one they'll watch. Some people may still check out the English dub later out of morbid curiosity, sure, but I think they'll be in the minority. For most people it's more "well, what can I watch right now, with minimal fuss."

For years that's been the English dub. That's starting to change.

Maybe some "casuals" would agree to watch it in Japanese, but...they do even know the movie exists?

TPCI has tweeted about the movie multipe times. Various news sites have also picked up on it over the months. They know.
 
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I forgot that TPCI tweeted about Movie 22 before. That does make the lack of news for its dub more strange in a way, especially when they usually announce a new movie with its dub title or initial trailer.

The official YouTube page for the Japanese version did upload the first episode of the new Pocket Monsters series. It still isn't subbed and I don't know if they plan on doing that for more episodes, but I wonder if they are testing the waters for possible legal subs with this decision.
 
Incidentally those who have Charter On Demand can often browse through a good amount of the series on the Disney XD section, which I imagine views will benefit the dub's continuation.

Even if they don't have every episode up, I find myself using the page up and page down button quite a bit.
 
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