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Yeah, I know not always, but most of the time it's the more likely outcome, and I didn't want to get into nuance when trying to explain why two regional variants don't establish a trend and why the three new evos shouldn't be factored in.Not always- Azurill to Marill prior to Gen 6, Eevee to its evolutions, and Swablu to Mega Altaria if we count Megas.
Not that this means the Voltorb line is more likely to keep the Electric type as a result- even if we could assume a trend from this small pool, there's no reason all new variants have to follow it.