New York Congressional Election Battle

[Phoenicks]

Republican Scozzafava Suspends New York Congressional Campaign

Republican state Assemblywoman Dierdre Scozzafava has suspended her campaign for upstate New York's 23rd Congressional seat, leaving Democratic nominee Bill Owens and Conservative Party nominee Doug Hoffman in the race that will conclude Tuesday, Fox News has confirmed.

The move comes on the heels of a new poll that showed Scozzafava had fallen behind her two competitors in a race too close.

The Siena College poll has Owens picking up 36 percent of the vote, while Hoffman has 35 percent. Scozzafava has 20 percent, with nine percent of voters undecided.

It's a turnaround from the first Siena poll on the race in September, which had Scozzafava leading, followed by Owens and Hoffman.

The special election is Tuesday.

Scozzafava blamed her poor standing in he polls and a lack of money for her decision in a letter to her supporters published by the Watertown Daily Times.

"In recent days, polls have indicated that my chances of winning this election are not as strong as we would like them to be," she wrote.

"The reality that I've come to accept is that in today's political arena, you must be able to back up your message with money -- and as I've been outspent on both sides, I've been unable to effectively address many of the charges that have been made about my record," she said.

Scozzafava didn't endorse either of the remaining candidates, opting instead to allow her supporters make their own choice.

"It is my hope that with my actions today, my party will emerge stronger and our district and our nation can take an important step towards restoring the enduring strength and economic prosperity that has defined us for generations," she said.

This is earth-shattering news people in terms of political parties. The conservative, independant candidate successfully beat the Republican-approved candidate. Everything could change now. I'm not going to get crazy and say new parties, but we could see a complete set of new changes now.

 

[Misty]

I'm going to be honest - Doug Hoffman should NOT be running. He's made it clear that he knows next to nothing about local issues.

 

[Fig]

Still interesting to have the Republican fade back in favor of another player.

 

[Big Lutz]

From everything I heard she was more RINO than a real Republican and was chosen by Committee instead of the actual people. Anyway this is huge! This means Hoffman has a better chance in winning and a better chance of a Republican sweep come Tuesday!

This also has huge, HUGE implications for both Sarah Palin and the Conservative Tea Party movement who backed Hoffman, and who pretty much started the ball rolling on a candidate who everyone thought didn't have a chance in hell, including myself.

 

[Juicy Jazzy]

Sarah Palin doesn't have a hope in hell.

 

[Big Lutz]

Sarah Palin doesn't have a hope in hell.

Probably not, but she was one of the first to endorse Hoffman, that endorsement began the ball rolling on alot of other big name endorsements that really brought us to this point.

 

[Eredar Warlock]

RINO?

I preferred the name DIABLO...Democrat In All But Label Only.

I support the conservative candidate. I'm not interested in parties. This shows that voters are starting to get sick of both parties.

 

[Phoenicks]

RNC Backs Hoffman in Upstate New York House Race

Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele says the committee is endorsing the conservative in New York’s 23rd Congressional District race after Republican Assemblywoman Dierdre Scozzafava suspended her campaign and released her supporters.


Associated PressCalling Scozzafava’s move a “selfless act,” Steele says the RNC’s change of course is effective immediately and will include financial backing and get out the vote efforts for Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman.

Scozzafava hasn’t endorsed either of her rivals, but told her local paper that a Siena Research Institute poll out today showed her too far behind to be a viable candidate.

The Siena Research Institute poll shows Democrat Bill Owens and Doug Hoffman are neck-and-neck, with Scozzafava far behind. The Siena poll showed Owens at 36%, Hoffman at 35% and Scozzafava at 20%. The poll has a 3.7% margin of error.

It’s a remarkable turn in the much-watched race, which has featured a Hoffman that split the GOP vote and appeared to give the Democrat a chance to squeak through in a Republican-leaning district. The election will be held Tuesday. Scozzafava’s decision to suspend her campaign could put Hoffman over the top.

The vacancy was created when President Barack Obama named former Republican Rep. John McHugh secretary of the Army.

If Hoffman prevails, it could spur other GOP primary challenges and encourage the party to nominate more conservative candidates in the 2010 congressional elections.

They had to support Hoffman at this point, since he was the only option left for Republicans. Still, Hoffman is dragging showing the Republicans that they need to move in his direction instead of an appeasement one.

 

[Misty]

and PPP apparently shows that Hoffman is running away with it.

It will be very interesting to see if Hoffman can win in 2010.

 

[Falconwing]

More political battles. Fun.

I vote Nathan Petrelli *shot*

 

[Fig]

RNC Backs Hoffman in Upstate New York House Race




They had to support Hoffman at this point, since he was the only option left for Republicans. Still, Hoffman is dragging showing the Republicans that they need to move in his direction instead of an appeasement one.

Disagreed. What it shows is that dividing your vote is bad, no more, no less.

As it stands, if Hoffman wasn't running, then nearly all of Hoffman's vote woudl be going to Scozzafava (or some staying home). With Scozzafava withdrawing, her voters, being more moderate will likely become split between staying home, Hoffman and Owen.

That doesn't mean Owen will win this particular race, far from it. Hoffman has pretty good odds. It means that you're getting the wrong lesson out of it.

 

[Phoenicks]

Disagreed. What it shows is that dividing your vote is bad, no more, no less.

As it stands, if Hoffman wasn't running, then nearly all of Hoffman's vote woudl be going to Scozzafava (or some staying home). With Scozzafava withdrawing, her voters, being more moderate will likely become split between staying home, Hoffman and Owen.

That doesn't mean Owen will win this particular race, far from it. Hoffman has pretty good odds. It means that you're getting the wrong lesson out of it.

Dividing the vote is only bad if you value getting elected over holding true to your values. Hoffman held true to his values, and he's likely to be elected now.

Also, if you looked at Misty's numbers, the estimated support for Hoffman was 45%.

My point was that the RNC had to side with Hoffman.

 

[Fig]

Oh, in this case definitely.

But it's not a generic "We need to be more hardcore to win!" Palin-style stamp of approval.

 

[Glaciachan]

The fact that this guy has a good chance of winning amazes me. I mean, normally a third party candidate has a snowball's chance in Hell of winning.

 

[Misty]

To be fair, the Conservative Party is not really a "third party" - it's usually been a major component of the Republican Party.

tbh I think this whole "more conservative" vs "less conservative" debate misses the whole point - Americans (especially independents) want solutions to their most pressing problems. They don't care whether it's based on right, left, or centrist ideology; they just care what works. That's why Republicans (IMO) are still in trouble, because I don't feel their solutions to our problems are up to snuff. Then again, Democratic solutions haven't been much better, so it's not like they're in great shape either.

 

[The Big Al]

This could send the wrong message to Republicans that they have go even farther to the right. A right-winger winning a district that hasn't elected a Democrat since before the Civil War is not surprising let alone groundbreaking.

Speaking of a civil war, I think it's now on in the Republican party.

 

[Big Lutz]

This could send the wrong message to Republicans that they have go even farther to the right. A right-winger winning a district that hasn't elected a Democrat since before the Civil War is not surprising let alone groundbreaking.

Possibly, but the district also went for Obama so lets not pretend its some ultra red district out there. The biggest message it will send is for the Republican Party not to elect some one with out the consent of the general public.

Speaking of a civil war, I think it's now on in the Republican party.

If alot more districts start having independent challengers you could be right. But for now, the Republicans are just revealing in the possible sweep that comes on Tuesday, and the rebuttal of Obama's policies that it sends, as well as the message it sends to the Blue Dogs.

 

[The Big Al]

Actually, this isn't a rebuttal on Obama. Even in Virgina, where the Democrat is basically screwed, they said something like 70% of voters aren't even considering Obama as part of their vote. The Democrat is just a piss awful candidate.

 

[Eredar Warlock]

Actually, this isn't a rebuttal on Obama.

Everything going right when it was won by the left last year? The fact that New Jersey, probably the bluest of blue states, is even close, suggests that people are very unhappy with the left.

 

[Fig]

Not exactly.

It suggests that

1)This is an off-year election wise.
2)This suggests that the Obama factor is not in play for the left (eg, no one is going out to vote because of Obama.
3)The hard right is extremely motivated due to being out of power, and due to various grass-root (or pseudo-grassroot) movements.
4)The hard right tend to be better at sticking together than the hard left (which is usually divided on just what reform they want, exactly).

Keep in mind, most every polls aren't the pure replies pollsters get. They're adjusted based on their estimate of which of the polled people is likely to vote.