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Official Pre-Pokémon Sword & Pokémon Shield Speculation & Leaks thread

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What are the leaks by Paul that we should go by?
Oh sorry about that, Paul released on his Patreon some merchandising leaks that are what he believes to be promotional material for the new film, and they specifically have an area that is "?" which could mean a new Pokemon, or form. He also has been saying a lot recently in tweets that starting May or April we will see a lot of promotion, and thinks it will be for Gen 8.
 
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I think they might have learned their lesson from Sun and Moon, or at least I hope. I know people were pretty angry when the first thing they showed were logos, repeated the same thing on a tv appearance, and didn't show anything concrete until May. At the least they had the excuse that they weren't ready yet and wanted something on the 20th anniversary, but still.

At this point I feel like we're going to at least get starters and box legends by January. They've kind of quietly hyped up the game since June of last year, I think? And with localization starting it makes me feel that they've had plenty of time to finalize at least the starter and legendary designs with logos but are just waiting for a bit after Let's Go so they don't overshadow it before Christmas.

Plus plenty of people are either miffed or underwhelmed by Let's Go, so damage control for them is probably to be expected soon. It also works out for all the people who liked those games too because "more pokemon!" is always good enough reason to drop a trailer/teaser.

My question is, do y'all think they'd dare tease anything at the Games Awards tomorrow? My guess is no because Smash Bros, but if it did happen... hoo boy help me.
It would be my dream and make me cry if they revealed something like Gen 8 at The Game Awards tomorrow. But alas, I don't think that ever will happen. Like you said before, they wouldn't dare take the spot light from Let's Go selling well during the Holidays, after all its selling well even now (I think it outsold XY in Japan, correct me if I am wrong please, thank you). Besides, we have other big things from Nintendo that may be shown tomorrow ;)
 
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@Myth, I was referring to the actual accidental leaks, like Toucannon or Mega Mewtwo X, although you raised the question that they may be a publicity stunt. Nah, that doesn't fix Mega Mewtwo X's leak.
 
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My question is, do y'all think they'd dare tease anything at the Games Awards tomorrow? My guess is no because Smash Bros, but if it did happen... hoo boy help me.
I think there is a very minuscule chance we get something tomorrow. I'm still operating under the theory that Let's Go is suppose to bring back old players into the series and GameFreak thinks those people have very short attention spans. They will want to do something to keep them interested. In fact, Smash releasing soon might be a good reason to hint something now. Older players might move on to Smash and forget all about Pokemon (maybe not because of Inceniroar being a new fighter). At best though, I think we will get a silhouette. We definitely won't get game names or anything. A silhouette would be good though because it creates mystery; people will stick around and keep checking for the reveal which they can do sometime in January. Is that too long? I forget how long it took to get Sylveon after the silhouette was shown.

I highly doubt that sales of Let's Go would be affected by such a tease and I honestly wonder if anyone cares. They have already confirmed that a game is coming next year and have hyped it up in interviews. If they were worried that gen 8 news might cannibalize sales, I don't think they would have done that.
 
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Any idea what is he saying here? Google translate isn't making much sense.
It might be different on my end, but the phrase "Super Dream" keeps popping up, and I think it might be Pokemon translated all weird. It looks like he's trying to suggest a new Pokemon or forme being revealed in February in one line, and saying that the Meltan line might not appear in the movie or anime (or something), but don't quote me on that, I'm just guessing from google. I think maybe maybe he's also trying to suggest the Mewtwo movie will arrive around May in Japan, roughly around the same time as Detective Pikachu. Something about an announcement sometime within the next week, I think, and possibly "the magazine" revealing it earlier.

I'll post the google translate version I got under a spoiler in case anyone wants to try deciphering it.

New news, a basket~
The original source of the following pictures is paid content. Some people carry the oil pipe and watermark, and the individual edits the video. Therefore, it is forbidden to reprint the pictures used in this post. If you need relevant information, please go to the original video screenshot~
1 super dream related periphery
It is expected that a new map will be released around the MC system announced in late February next year. The MC is temporarily called Super Dream A (pseudo), which is one of the first batch of movies next year. According to the public time and the number of MCs, the surrounding area is likely to be a new type of super-dream (if it is, it may be a new element of a completely new work next year), and in February every year, the main event of the movie will be publicly disclosed (although Since the M20, the new Eudemons has been released in April of the same year, but the M20 has not become the protagonist of the new Eudemons, so it is actually possible to refer to the M19 next year, which is also the warm-up period of the new generation. In February of the 16th, the machine was released. In this case, if there is a new dream or form, it may be published by the magazine in February. Of course, it may be followed last year and the year before last year. In the similar example, there are 13 years. Super Super Dream Y announced in April, although the point is that the time of the announcement is around the end of February next year. In March, the first official trailer is released. Of course, it is not an animation/movie category, such as TV recently. Hairstyle Ibrahimovic, last year's glasses Ibrahimovic, etc., although the probability of the new state is higher ~

2 Other MC information
A number of unknown new treasures have been arranged on the line, and the new promotion period for next year will not start too late, and it will start to be milky in addition to the creation of an external creation. The following MC is expected to be on sale: January 31 lgpe associated with the surrounding + Xie Mi, March 31, Al Zeus + Ma Yana + unknown treasure dream, April 30 and May 31 are unknown new treasure dream Debut (not all written, see the picture on your own)~
Of course, there are other animations around the focus on Shemi, Al Zeus, although this kind of peripheral look is good. The surrounding area of Merutan is an animation-related neighborhood, although this is not a 100% representative of the Meilutan family to appear in the animation.


3 movie aspects
In addition to determining the Hollywood live-action movie that will be released simultaneously in May next year (the Japanese accidentally did not routinely postpone overseas movies, of course, because of the summer), there is also a regular Japanese native movie M22. The first 30s special report will be announced in the next week or so (the morning morning of Monday to Friday next week, if it is only Friday this week, tomorrow's group preview is not), the magazine may also Will steal early, the name of the M22 movie has been determined as [Super Dream's Counter Attack Evolution]~
 
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I know that, but thank you, man. Still, what I would like to know is if you are sure and remember what information Riddler revealed back in April 2015?

Because, unless the Chinese localization process is totally different from that of other countries, April 2015 would still be much early. By the time, Sun and Moon were probably still under development. It would not be common for a location team to have that information so early.
He mentioned Pikipek and Oranguru in April 2015 and drew the silhouette of Pikipek in June 2015. Lots of Chinese Tieba users remembered these posts.

Just reprinted some recent news or rumors from abroad, nothing special.

Any idea what is he saying here? Google translate isn't making much sense.
Unnecessary to know what he said, just past contents we'd discussed. Also, don't use Google translate, because Chinese internet users speak internet slangs and interchangeable symbols a lot which are difficult to translate and they're changing all the time. Btw the Chinese language is very free to organize in sentence structure.
 
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Also, don't use Google translate, because Chinese internet users speak internet slangs and interchangeable symbols a lot which are difficult to translate and they're changing all the time. Btw the Chinese language is very free to organize in sentence structure.
Thanks for insight on how Chinese and Chinese posts work!
 
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When XY was announced the 3DS was with about 35 million units sold. The Switch is struggling to reach 25, even with Let's Go (it will probably hit the mark at Christmas, but the fiscal year sales will still be far below Nintendo's forecasts).
What? You can compare the shipment numbers between the two systems, and the Switch is ahead of the 3DS.

Here for the 3DS (in Millions):
FY 2010/11 3.61
FY 2011/12 13.53 (deep emergency price cut)
FY 2012/13 13.95 (the best fiscal year the 3DS ever had, already peak)
FY 2013/14 12.24 (release of x/y, their forecast was 18 Million)
source: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir//pdf/2014/140507e.pdf (page 15)

Here for the Switch:
FY 2016/17 2.74
FY 2017/18 15.05 (so already better than the best fiscal year of the 3DS)
FY 2018/19 5.06 (only 6 months in, tracking higher than last FY, so >15.05 over the entire year very, very likely)
source: IR Information : Sales Data - Dedicated Video Game Sales Units

The Switch is selling better than the 3DS, even without a deep price cut or a revision.
 
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lets go alpha.PNG
Disclaimer: Game freak doesnt scrap anything this is the nearest thin of lets go in sun and moon days
 
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The only thing I expect from them is to know we want to see something very special.
 
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The only thing I expect from them is to know we want to see something very special.
We have at least one legit leaker (king zell), who said this a few months ago:

Ok, they really talked about it like its BOW of Pokemon games, i think its a step forward thing.
again guys, sometimes i post stuff here that just my opinion, others times i post stuff that i heard and am gonna say that so people dont take anything i say as a hint of things to come.
and

I dont know that, they were talking about it with so much excitement like its a really big thing but with Nintendo going HD sometimes is a really big thing.
sorry thats all i know.
(from this thread: Pokemon Gen 8 Discussion Thread of Hopes, Speculation, Expectations, Dreams, Rumors, and More
post 288 and 293)

For me, BOW stands for ambition (not openworld).
So... i think, they know what we want (big step forward)
 
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@Myth, I was referring to the actual accidental leaks, like Toucannon or Mega Mewtwo X, although you raised the question that they may be a publicity stunt. Nah, that doesn't fix Mega Mewtwo X's leak.
Sorry, prog. But what were we talking about? If you didn't quote the wrong person, I may have forgotten. Sorry.

Edit: Nevermind. I got it now. You're right.

He mentioned Pikipek and Oranguru in April 2015 and drew the silhouette of Pikipek in June 2015. Lots of Chinese Tieba users remembered these posts.
I see. Thank you. I wish I had seen those posts, but I believe you.

As I said before, that way, I begin to think that he isn't a common localization team member tho. April 2015 was too early for a common localization team member know things about the games (as well as May 2018). I begin to believe in the theory you pointed out earlier, that he is part of some kind of intentional promotional strategy.

What? You can compare the shipment numbers between the two systems, and the Switch is ahead of the 3DS.

Here for the 3DS (in Millions):
FY 2010/11 3.61
FY 2011/12 13.53 (deep emergency price cut)
FY 2012/13 13.95 (the best fiscal year the 3DS ever had, already peak)
FY 2013/14 12.24 (release of x/y, their forecast was 18 Million)
source: https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir//pdf/2014/140507e.pdf (page 15)

Here for the Switch:
FY 2016/17 2.74
FY 2017/18 15.05 (so already better than the best fiscal year of the 3DS)
FY 2018/19 5.06 (only 6 months in, tracking higher than last FY, so >15.05 over the entire year very, very likely)
source: IR Information : Sales Data - Dedicated Video Game Sales Units

The Switch is selling better than the 3DS, even without a deep price cut or a revision.
I'm comparing sales numbers. Nintendo 3DS reached 30 million in just over 1 and half year of release, and exceeded Nintendo's expectations.

The Nintendo Switch is up to 25 million, and Nintendo's forecast for the fiscal year was for it to reach 35 as well (impossible to reach that).
 
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I'm comparing sales numbers. Nintendo 3DS reached 30 million in just over 1 and half year of release, and exceeded Nintendo's expectations.

The Nintendo Switch is up to 25 million, and Nintendo's forecast for the fiscal year was for it to reach 35 as well (impossible to reach that).
The 3DS reached 35 Million at the end of September 2013, two and a half years after launch. Nintendo wants to reach 37 Million at the end of March 2019, two years after launch. You are skipping some months here lol
Here are the numbers launch alligned (quarterly):
Switch-3ds.png
While the gap is not big, the Switch is in front with 640.000 units.

EDIT: Oh and no, the 3ds never met their high expectations coming from the DS. For example, Nintendo expected to ship 18 Million 3Ds systems in 2013/14, thanks to X/Y and the 2DS. They only reached 12.24.
 
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The 3DS reached 35 Million at the end of September 2013.
I had a little trouble trying to find 3DS sales data by the time of the XY announcement, that's why I said "about 35m", but really, I was wrong, but I found it now:

By the time, in January, the Nintendo 3DS reached the mark of 29.84 million units sold.


When it was about to reach 2 years of its release. Nintendo Switch only has a chance to reach the 30 million mark in March (2 years of its release) if Nintendo makes use of the marketing of Pokémon 2019. And even so, it will be below Nintendo's forecast for the fiscal year. That was what my original post was about. I said the Nintendo Switch is selling well, but it is still below the predictions made by Nintendo.

Remember that Nintendo only has the Nintendo Switch now. And that 5 of their biggest releases (Mario, LoZ, Smash, MK, Splatoon, Pokémon) have already been made. Remains Pokémon 2019 and Metroid Prime 4 only now (and Animal Crossing maybe).

Nintendo wants to reach 37 Million at the end of March 2019. You are skipping some months here lol
I know that. Do you really think they will achieve that? It's impossible.

Here are the numbers launch alligned (quarterly):
View attachment 114423
While the gap is not big, the Switch is in front with 640.000 units.
The 3DS and Switch scenarios are different, as I exemplified above. Just because the Switch is having sales close to the 3DS does not mean it is meeting Nintendo's expectations.
 
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Remember that Nintendo only has the Nintendo Switch now. And that 5 of their biggest releases (Mario, LoZ, Smash, MK, Splatoon, Pokémon) have already been made. Remains Pokémon 2019 and Metroid Prime 4 only, now (and Animal Crossing maybe).
.
Yes, Pokemon and Animal Crossing will be the big (planned) releases next year, but Nintendo needs a cheap Switch revision to make use of that. Metroid Prime is... not really important in sales discussions, sorry Metroid fans lol
As for the 35 Million in March, well, they are currently at 22.86 Million shipped. Last fiscal year they shipped roughly 10 Million units in q3 and q4, so they need an increase of 23%. Not impossible. We will know more in January.
 
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Yes, Pokemon and Animal Crossing will be the big (planned) releases next year, but Nintendo needs a cheap Switch revision to make use of that. Metroid Prime is... not really important in sales discussions, sorry Metroid fans lol
As for the 35 Million in March, well, they are currently at 22.86 Million shipped. Last fiscal year they shipped roughly 10 Million units in q3 and q4, so they need an increase of 23%. Not impossible. We will know more in January.
Pretty sure the entire audiance at E3(?) went nuts at the frikken number 4 so I'd suggest hold your breath.
 
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I had a little trouble trying to find 3DS sales data by the time of the XY announcement, that's why I said "about 35m", but really, I was wrong, but I found it now:

By the time, in January, the Nintendo 3DS reached the mark of 29.84 million units sold.


When it was about to reach 2 years of its release. Nintendo Switch only has a chance to reach the 30 million mark in March (2 years of its release) if Nintendo makes use of the marketing of Pokémon 2019. And even so, it will be below Nintendo's forecast for the fiscal year. That was what my original post was about. I said the Nintendo Switch is selling well, but it is still below the predictions made by Nintendo.

Remember that Nintendo only has the Nintendo Switch now. And that 5 of their biggest releases (Mario, LoZ, Smash, MK, Splatoon, Pokémon) have already been made. Remains Pokémon 2019 and Metroid Prime 4 only now (and Animal Crossing maybe).
FE also comes in the first half of 2019, which might also effect Switch Sales.
 
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