Possibility of intelligent life in this galaxy

[LightShadow]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/hi/sci/tech/7870562.stm

Number of alien worlds quantified

Intelligent civilizations are out there and there could be thousands of them, according to an Edinburgh scientist.

The discovery of more than 330 planets outside our solar system in recent years has helped refine the number of life forms that are likely to exist.

The current research estimates that there are at least 361 intelligent civilizations in our Galaxy and possibly as many as 38,000.

The work is reported in the International Journal of Astrobiology.

Even with the higher of the two estimates, however, it is not very likely that contact could be established with alien worlds.

While researchers often come up with overall estimates of the likelihood of intelligent life in the universe, it is a process fraught with guesswork; recent guesses put the number anywhere between a million and less than one.

"It's a process of quantifying our ignorance," said Duncan Forgan, the University of Edinburgh researcher who carried out the work.

In his new approach, Mr Forgan simulated a galaxy much like our own, allowing it to develop solar systems based on what is now known from the existence of so-called exoplanets in our galactic neighborhood.

These simulated alien worlds were then subjected to a number of different scenarios. The first assumed that it is difficult for life to be formed but easy for it to evolve, and suggested there were 361 intelligent civilizations in the galaxy.

A second scenario assumed life was easily formed but struggled to develop intelligence. Under these conditions, 31,513 other forms of life were estimated to exist.

The final scenario examined the possibility that life could be passed from one planet to another during asteroid collisions - a popular theory for how life arose here on Earth.

That approach gave a result of some 37,964 intelligent civilizations in existence.

Form and function

While far-flung planets may reduce uncertainty in how many Earth-like planets there are, some variables in the estimate will remain guesses.

For example, the time from a planet's formation to the first sparks of life, or from there to the first intelligent civilizations, are large variables in the overall estimate.

For those, Mr Forgan says, we will have to continue to assume Earth is an average case.

"It is important to realize that the picture we've built up is still incomplete," said Mr Forgan.

"Even if alien life forms do exist, we may not necessarily be able to make contact with them, and we have no idea what form they would take.

"Life on other planets may be as varied as life on Earth and we cannot predict what intelligent life on other planets would look like or how they might behave."

Interesting. Possibility of 37,964 intelligent civilizations in existence. Imagine that.

 

[X Dragoon]

Best we don't even bother making contact anyway, they might be war crazed freaks with advanced tech.

 

[Hyasynth]

they might be war crazed freaks with advanced tech.

You mean like we are?
If they're anything like us, being light years apart might be a good thing.
The last thing we need in the headlines a century from now is 'INTERGALACTIC WAR: EARTH FINALLY ENTERS GALACTIC WAR II. EARTH RULZ!1'.

 

[X Dragoon]

You mean like we are?
If they're anything like us, being light years apart might be a good thing.
The last thing we need in the headlines a century from now is 'INTERGALACTIC WAR: EARTH FINALLY ENTERS GALACTIC WAR II. EARTH RULZ!1'.

Pretty much, best we leave outer life alone, we don't even know them.

 

[bell02+]

This seems to be exactly what I figured, a positive outlook guess.

 

[X Dragoon]

Well, yeah, we can't just trust others just like that.

 

[Rayne]

Based off the current set of known data, the Drake Equation puts the estimate at 2.31.

That's 2 other intelligent species that would be open and willing to communicate with us.

The Drake Equation was a hypothetical equation developed in the 60's to estimate the total amount of active intelligence seeking alien civilizations, that is if we ever found the appropriate variables for the equation.

The only problem is that most of the variables in the equation are vague estimates that can't really be measured accurately. (For example, the ratio of habitable planets compared to all other planets or even less certain, the probability of intelligent life developing).

This test sounds a bit more reliable since actual simulation was involved, though I'd say that the values were probably estimated in much the same way the Drake Equation was put together so I'm still skeptical at the values. I'd probably even say that 10% of those values is a bit high, of course then again that depends on what life you're expecting. Habitable planets? I'd say 500-5000 sounds right. Habitable planets with lifeforms? Probably less than 1,000 and those with intelligent lifeforms much much lower.

Still, given what we have to work with it's looking less and less likely we're all alone. I'd be pleased to hear if we ever found a habitable planet in this lifetime.

 

[bell02+]

I don't know, I mean, yeah, I've read on Drake's Equation, and I too thought this was something with similar estimation methods, but my problems with the estimations is that I don't think we know enough yet to say that what we know about life is a good sample size. I mean, the way we have to observe distant planets doesn't help either in trying to guess if it livable or not.

 

[ShinyFlareon]

Sometimes I think the surest sign that there is intelligent life in the universe is that none of it has tried to contact us yet.

Ah, the immortal wisdom of Calvin and Hobbes. 'Nough said.

 

[The Jean Genie]

As much as I want to believe, I can't help but shirk at the idea of the possibility of intelligent, sentient life like us in the universe. It's out there, sure but, whose to know if contact wouldn't turn out like a H.G. Wells broadcast?

 

[LightShadow]

The broadcast was of aliens attacking earth. What if they came in peace?

 

[X Dragoon]

Peace or conquest, that's a risk not worth taking.

 

[DXFrost]

you people watch too much tv

 

[X Dragoon]

You never know.

 

[LightShadow]

That's correct, you never know. The universe is infinite, surely there's intelligent life out there somewhere.

 

[X Dragoon]

YES!

 

[The King of Nidos]

Even if they are peace seeking aliens all they would have to do is take one look at our planet and see how corrupted it is before they try to take it over to make it more peaceful to them.

 

[X Dragoon]

You've got a point.

 

[GrnMarvl14]

Even if they are peace seeking aliens all they would have to do is take one look at our planet and see how corrupted it is before they try to take it over to make it more peaceful to them.

If it works for America...

 

[Zeta]

That's correct, you never know. The universe is infinite, surely there's intelligent life out there somewhere.

It may or may not be infinite. I think there's some math that shows that it's not, but the problem with that is that what the hell is at the end of it?

And yes, there's probably intelligent life out there somewhere. I don't think anyone in the universe has overcome the faster than light problem though, so we won't run into them for a loooong time.