dukeburger
Pogo
- Joined
- Sep 24, 2007
- Messages
- 550
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Re: Shiny Pokemon with the Pokeradar
You're certainly right, but I think telling people to stop chaining at 40 is a pretty crucial tip. It of course is up to the individual to master being able to get that far, using the basic rules as a guideline and observations through his/her own experience. Most people, especially beginners, wouldn't be able to figure out that they should just stop at 40 though, which is clear from the amount of people who post here saying they broke a 40+ chain without seeing any shinies... and that really sucks.
Yeah... maybe I shouldn't have said "wrong," but I still stand by "misleading." Let's face it, if you start resetting at 20, you will be there a long, long time and may never have anything to show for it. I think that if people are new to chaining then they may assume that their odds are half as good at 20 than they are at 40, which isn't true, because the odds grow exponentially... making a shiny patch not much more likely to appear until the mid 30s. That's why I say misleading.
By the way, yes, your assumption is correct as many of us here believe that to be the case so far. We think that even by following all the rules, there's still a random chance that the seemingly perfect farthest away patch breaks the rules of chaining... meaning that the Pokemon you encounter there will reflect the odds of the area (in your case with Porygon, yes Porygon could still be there, but at a 5% appearance rate, not likely). So I can see your point about how in the end it may waste less time to reset at 24, as you're saying, if chains continue to break. But, I agree with wanting to reset for multiple shinies, and therefore needing to bring the chain to 40. Honestly, I don't even stop any earlier than that anymore, even if I'm feeling nervous, just because I'm too impatient and I know that even past 40, I can frequently spend 3x the normal amount resetting, just because of how odds work out.
Now that I've been trying to do some calculations on my own and getting results that don't really make sense, I have to ask... how exactly are you getting 170 max repels at a chain of 24? Assuming we are referring to the same source, I'm not even sure how 13 max repels per shiny at a chain of 40 works out. If the chances are 1/200, and you have 4 patches shake, your chances of seeing one be shiny are 1/50... and then with 5 resets per max repel, that should put you at 10... but something doesn't seem right... (I don't know, it's late and I'm tired).
dukeburger - I agree with your comment about huge letters warning to stop chaining and merely reset at 40. However, on the other hand, I think part of the wonder and mystery of chaining for shinies is piecing together all the information as you work on honing your skills. And eventually many are successful. And it makes one's success all that much sweeter having had to do a little digging -- research -- and put it all together
You're certainly right, but I think telling people to stop chaining at 40 is a pretty crucial tip. It of course is up to the individual to master being able to get that far, using the basic rules as a guideline and observations through his/her own experience. Most people, especially beginners, wouldn't be able to figure out that they should just stop at 40 though, which is clear from the amount of people who post here saying they broke a 40+ chain without seeing any shinies... and that really sucks.
Also, if I understand correctly "even 20 could work if you have enough patience and repels" is technically correct; but, from my limited experience, may not be totally "wrong and misleading"
For example:
I'm trying to chain Porygon (5% chance) in the trophy garden and have had no luck getting a chain over 24 after about 15 tries. I've become relatively skilled at chaining but the majority of the Porygon chains have broken simply because of the "random" factor -- not my inability to chain according to the rules. This seems to me to be a higher incidence of random Pokes breaking the chain in the farthest shaking grass patch location than for swarming Pokes or Pokes that have a higher encounter rate for the area (correct me if I'm wrong on this assumption).
Anyway ...I am seriously considering just stopping my chain building and resetting at 24. Based on Josh1billion's Excel spreadsheet the probability of encountering a shiny would be about 1:170 max repels (5 resets per max repel) at a chain of 24. This actually may be the prudent approach -- especially considering every time the chain breaks I have to once again encounter a Porygon at an encounter rate of 1:20 (5%). It may actually take less time overall to stop chain building at 24 and go into a long drawn out reset mode. The major drawback to this for me is, as you may have noticed, I like to capture a lot of shinies once I get going. This strategy would not lend itself well to my preferred methodology.
Yeah... maybe I shouldn't have said "wrong," but I still stand by "misleading." Let's face it, if you start resetting at 20, you will be there a long, long time and may never have anything to show for it. I think that if people are new to chaining then they may assume that their odds are half as good at 20 than they are at 40, which isn't true, because the odds grow exponentially... making a shiny patch not much more likely to appear until the mid 30s. That's why I say misleading.
By the way, yes, your assumption is correct as many of us here believe that to be the case so far. We think that even by following all the rules, there's still a random chance that the seemingly perfect farthest away patch breaks the rules of chaining... meaning that the Pokemon you encounter there will reflect the odds of the area (in your case with Porygon, yes Porygon could still be there, but at a 5% appearance rate, not likely). So I can see your point about how in the end it may waste less time to reset at 24, as you're saying, if chains continue to break. But, I agree with wanting to reset for multiple shinies, and therefore needing to bring the chain to 40. Honestly, I don't even stop any earlier than that anymore, even if I'm feeling nervous, just because I'm too impatient and I know that even past 40, I can frequently spend 3x the normal amount resetting, just because of how odds work out.
Now that I've been trying to do some calculations on my own and getting results that don't really make sense, I have to ask... how exactly are you getting 170 max repels at a chain of 24? Assuming we are referring to the same source, I'm not even sure how 13 max repels per shiny at a chain of 40 works out. If the chances are 1/200, and you have 4 patches shake, your chances of seeing one be shiny are 1/50... and then with 5 resets per max repel, that should put you at 10... but something doesn't seem right... (I don't know, it's late and I'm tired).