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Shiny Pokémon with the Pokéradar

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=Dragonite=

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Re: Shiny Pokemon with the Pokeradar

Lol. I wish you luck on the Gligars. I'd start resetting on that 39 if I were you.
 

Eevee_Breeder

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Re: Shiny Pokemon with the Pokeradar

Oh man, so by some miracle, I'm at a chain of 39 Gligars. I am SO scared of trying to bring this chain to 40 (I sound like I've never made it there before...), but I also know how impatient I am. Should I try resetting at 39 or be brave? Ahhhh! Maybe I should give myself say, a 50 super repel limit and if nothing shows up, go for it? However, I have the feeling I will go for the first safe looking patch I see. In any case, it looks like I'm not going to bed any time soon. Someone's gonna be super grumpy at school and work tomorrow!

Good luck Gligars are awesome!
 

dukeburger

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Re: Shiny Pokemon with the Pokeradar

Thanks for the good luck wishes, guys, it looks like they helped! I sat down to reset at 39, expecting to either be there a really long time, or eventually give up and take a deep breath and go to the next patch. Well, only 2 resets later, and a shiny patch shows up. The game finally had mercy on me! The first shiny Gligar is jolly, which I'm synching for, though it has Sand Veil and I'm aiming for Hyper Cutter. Still, I'm not complaining, and now that I'm at 40 I'll be resetting for multiples. This is my first dongle method shiny, so yay!

I've got a question though... a few days ago, I started growing some of the rare berries (one being the Micle berry, which I only have one of...). So now I'm probably going to miss them when they bloom. If that happens, will a new plant start growing all over again, or do I lose all my berries forever? I honestly wasn't expecting to get a Gligar chain to 40 before they bloomed. :p
 

=Dragonite=

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Re: Shiny Pokemon with the Pokeradar

Don't worry. They'll grow back. Be sure to water them a lot, because I remember watering my Leppa tree too many times, that it produced 16 berries in one go.

By the way, congrats on the Gligar.
 

Samber

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Re: Shiny Pokemon with the Pokeradar

I'm trying to chain for a shiny Larvitar and I'm losing the will, my chains keep breaking at 10 odd :(
The only shiny I got with the radar was complete fluke, I was having an exceptionally bad round with Ralts and broke the chain after 2, reset it and the first patch of grass I went to had a shiny Ralts! I hadn't even noticed the grass shining.
 
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ShinyFlareon

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Re: Shiny Pokemon with the Pokeradar

I'm trying to chain for a shiny Larvitar and I'm losing the will, my chains keep breaking at 10 odd :(
The only shiny I got with the radar was complete fluke, I was having an exceptionally bad round with Ralts and broke the chain after 2, reset it and the first patch of grass I went to had a shiny Ralts! I hadn't even noticed the grass shining.

I feel your pain on the Larvitars...they like to taunt you, I swear. Congrats on the Ralts, though!

Wow, Dukeburger, you beat me to the shiny Gligar! I'm torn between jealousy and congratulating you ^_^ but that just means I need to try harder! Congrats, and I hope you get many more blue Gligars!
 

Deedlezx

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Re: Shiny Pokemon with the Pokeradar

i'm going for a shiny phanpy right now and they don't look too different from the normal phanpy....
i'm getting all stressed out trying to figure out if one is shiny or not. :(
 

pikachu200

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Re: Shiny Pokemon with the Pokeradar

They are shiny if there is light blue sparkles surronding it and a gleam after it does it's battle cry

I'm trying to get a shiny Castform right now
 

dukeburger

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Re: Shiny Pokemon with the Pokeradar

Don't worry. They'll grow back. Be sure to water them a lot, because I remember watering my Leppa tree too many times, that it produced 16 berries in one go.

By the way, congrats on the Gligar.

Okay, thanks (on both accounts). :) Yeah, I've gotten a lot of berries from things like Leppa trees, but even with constantly watering the rare ones, I only ever get 5. :/

I'm trying to chain for a shiny Larvitar and I'm losing the will, my chains keep breaking at 10 odd :(
The only shiny I got with the radar was complete fluke, I was having an exceptionally bad round with Ralts and broke the chain after 2, reset it and the first patch of grass I went to had a shiny Ralts! I hadn't even noticed the grass shining.

If you didn't notice it, then chances are the grass didn't actually shine. Any time you enter a regular patch, the Pokemon there still has a 1/8192 chance of being shiny. So that's probably what happened, which is still cool! I would love to enter a plain patch and get a nice surprise like that.

I feel your pain on the Larvitars...they like to taunt you, I swear. Congrats on the Ralts, though!

Wow, Dukeburger, you beat me to the shiny Gligar! I'm torn between jealousy and congratulating you ^_^ but that just means I need to try harder! Congrats, and I hope you get many more blue Gligars!

Larvitar used Taunt! Haha sorry, but when I read that, I actually thought you meant that they like to use Taunt.

Thanks for the congrats, but don't worry, you'll get your's! As long as you stick to the rules, then the only secrets left to chaining are practice, determination, and patience.

Resetting for shiny Gligars has been slow work, so I may fly away soon. Numbers 2 and 3 took about 60 super repels (240 resets) each to show up, number 4 was only 15 super repels, but then number 5 was 40 super repels.
 

BlueDitto

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Re: Shiny Pokemon with the Pokeradar

i was sceptic at first.. but after rreading through this post there seemed to be alot of success following the rules.

hours later i have a nice shiny blue ditto!!!

so i signed up to say thanks =)

i got to chain 40 and i think i reset about 5/6 times before the almighty sparkly grass appeared.

THANKS!!

p.s. i aimed for a shiny ditto because i read somehwere that breeding with a shiny ditto give 1in80ish (or something like that) chance of shiny pokemon hatching from the egg, off to test this theory now!!!
 

Tina

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Re: Shiny Pokemon with the Pokeradar

p.s. i aimed for a shiny ditto because i read somehwere that breeding with a shiny ditto give 1in80ish (or something like that) chance of shiny pokemon hatching from the egg, off to test this theory now!!!

Only works in GSC, not DP. Just sayin'.
 

ShinyBen

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Re: Shiny Pokemon with the Pokeradar

i have a question for all the chainers here: what do you feel has been your most rewarding chain? in other words which one did you feel the biggest sense of accomplishment?

for me it was my chain of eevees. it broke twice at 39 so when i got to forty it was the best moment in my chaining career.
 

ShinyFlareon

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Re: Shiny Pokemon with the Pokeradar

^ Definitely getting to 39 for the first time. Before that, I hadn't even had a chain above 14, so getting to 39, even though it broke, gave me a real sense of accomplishment
 

dukeburger

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Re: Shiny Pokemon with the Pokeradar

i have a question for all the chainers here: what do you feel has been your most rewarding chain? in other words which one did you feel the biggest sense of accomplishment?

for me it was my chain of eevees. it broke twice at 39 so when i got to forty it was the best moment in my chaining career.

Heh, Eevees is my answer too. They're the ones that gave me the most trouble, and I wanted a shiny Vaporeon so bad because it's my favorite Pokemon. Granted, I did catch those 3 early chain shinies, but I never evolved any just in case I ever got to 40. It wasn't until almost a year later after I had first started chaning Eevee that I finally went back and got them. I was so happy when I went into the 40th patch and it was still an Eevee. :)
 

Eevee_Breeder

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Re: Shiny Pokemon with the Pokeradar

Trying to decide what shiny to go after any suggestions?
 

CrownFire

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Re: Shiny Pokemon with the Pokeradar

There are more things in heaven and earth, Horatio,
Than are dreamt of in your philosophy.
– William Shakespeare, Hamlet

The following will likely not present a lot of new information – and may or may not contribute to anyone having more success in chaining. I’ve spent enough time chaining now that I’m simply driven to make some sense of all the research I’ve done – both reading on the web and several hundred hours chaining. So this is an attempt to bring all of this information into some kind of integrated whole rather than reiterate the specific details of “rules” that have all ready been elucidated on this thread and in other places on the web. I’m speculating about the workings going on inside the black box …. er, well in the case of my DS I guess that should be the white box. But until someone, much smarter than I, can break into the code and tell us in fact what is going on – the only thing we have are theories based on ours, and others, actual experience – until then we are all just speculating.

This post is not really for noobs nor for those who are only mildly committed to chaining for shinies. It is aimed at those who have at least a moderate amount of experience and have done some research on the “rules” of chaining. Prerequisite reading for noobs might include the following posts on this thread:
#1 – Shuko
#89 – Shuko
[HASHTAG]#126[/HASHTAG] – Shuko
[HASHTAG]#1501[/HASHTAG] – Skye
[HASHTAG]#3261[/HASHTAG] – Totoro


The primary focus of my chaining thought at the moment and thus the focus of this post is increasing the probabilities of chaining to 40. It’s pretty much agreed at this point that once the chain has reached 40 its time to reset the radar until the special shiny patch appears. This really needs no further analysis and at that point in my chains I really can relax. However, navigating the chain up to 40 is rife with the risk of a chain break so that’s where I’m interested in improving my odds.

Outcomes

After triggering the Poke Radar there are two possible outcomes to walking into the selected shaking patch – the chain continues or the chain breaks. This is easy to observe. What is difficult is determining what conditions influence the outcome. We want to continue the chain, not have it break, so how can we have more of the former and less of the latter?

The Rules are Probabilistic not Deterministic

It’s pretty clear the underlying rules behind chaining for shinies are not deterministic. In other words, outcomes of conditions are NOT always going to be the same one repeatable result of two possibilities. So in chaining it is NOT: if A is the case then B will result, if C is the case D will result. Rather chaining seems to be probabilistic.

Probability is the likelihood of a specific occurrence within all the possible outcomes. This means that if A is the case both C and D (our two outcomes – chain continues/chain breaks) can have defined probabilities – either can occur, though one may be more likely than the other.

Conditions

We don’t control any of the conditions presented to us. We can’t control where the shaking patches occur or whether they are normal or flashing patches, etc. However some of the conditions we can choose to accept – by walking into our selected shaking patch or we can reset the radar – others we have no choice whatsoever and can do nothing about.

A hypothesis that is example of the latter: one thought is that the probability of the chain breaking may be related to the encounter rate of the particular Pokemon in the wild. The hypothesis I’ve seen is the lower the encounter rate the lower the probability of the chain continuing. If this hypothesis is true, there is nothing we can do about this particular condition when chaining a particular Pokemon beyond assuring that other conditions we do have the choice to accept are optimal before stepping into the shaking patch.

The Fog of Chaining

The fact that the conditions for chaining are probabilistic and not deterministic makes it very difficult to elicit the underlying rules controlling chaining, because in some cases you can “break the rule” (i.e., implement a procedure with a low probability of success) and still have the desired outcome occur. For instance – going to an edge or corner shaking patch and not have it break the chain. Or, another one that I’ve taken advantage of all too many times, going (accidentally) to a shaking patch that is not the farthest – in some cases only 1 step away – and have it continue the chain rather than break it.

If the rules were deterministic it would be relatively easy to determine them from a certain amount of empirical evidence – and certainly the folks on this web site have amassed sufficient time chaining where the whole thing, if deterministic, would have been nailed down to a “T” by this point. But, being that the rules seem to be probabilities, until someone breaks in to the actual coding and can lay out the underlying rules of chaining, we are faced with trying to figure out how to get there without a map and we’re more or less in the fog. This is why chaining can be experienced as anywhere from an intriguing and satisfying challenge to REALLY frustrating.

Accuracy of Rules

One symptom of being in the fog is professing a rule (putting forth a hypothesis) that has SOME relation to the actual underlying rule, its relatively accurate, and thus results in a relatively high number of successes, but actually misses the mark to a more or less degree. A classic example of this I’ve seen (as many have noted here) – the web has numerous chaining guides directing the Chainer to always go to the shaking patch occurring in the 4th box from the center. If you compare this rule to the hypothesis we’ve been operating under (since Skye’s post [HASHTAG]#1501[/HASHTAG] – suggesting to go to the shaking patch that is the most steps away) you have to agree that the farthest shaking patch most often occurs in the 4th box out – but in a small number of cases in the 3rd box. So, as happened for many of us in our beginning experiments with chaining, the Chainer will have some success always going to the patch in the 4th box and may thus continue using that procedure. However, using Skye’s hypothesis results in a higher success rate.

NOW I ENTER INTO A VERY SPECULATIVE REALM – CAVEAT EMPTOR

The Conditions Aggregate and are Hierarchical

The probability of continuing or breaking the chain seems to be a function of the influence of a number of different aspects of the conditions. Also some conditions seem to play a more weighty part in the aggregated probability than others. So, for instance, generally, going to the farthest shaking patch seems to assure the highest probability of continuing a chain. It seems to be the primary condition/rule. Anyone who ignores this rule is likely to have very little success indeed. However there appear to be other factors (secondary conditions) which affect the final probability. Examples of secondary conditions include if the farthest patch is on an edge or a corner, if it is touching another shaking patch, if it is the other type of shaking patch (you’ve been chaining normal patches and the farthest this time is a flashing patch), if the farthest patch is at 0,4 or 4,8. Another example might be the encounter rate of the Poke in the wild.

Secondary Conditions’ Increasing Weight in the Aggregated Probability

Another aspect of things I believe is going on in the fog: it seems the higher the chain number the higher the probability of NOT encountering the chained Poke in the shaking patch. There have been numerous reports of a high incidence of chain breakage in the higher reaches of chains. I have experienced this myself.

I believe this can be attributed to secondary conditions imposing a greater impact on the aggregated probability at the higher chain numbers. So certain practices which have a reasonable probability at the lower end of a chain can evolve to a low probability at higher numbers in the chain. Totoro’s post [HASHTAG]#3261[/HASHTAG] talks about when he starts applying certain rules. I too am relatively sloppy AND successful in the lower numbers of a chain. Then, as the chain continues I tend to pay more attention and am more discerning in choosing when I go into a patch or reset the radar.


The General Hypotheses I am Operating Under At the Moment

The following ideas are what I choose to believe at this time:
1. There are still rules to be discovered which, if followed, will give a higher probability of continuing a chain than what has been heretofor proposed.
2. It is possible that if all rules are discovered and followed that random breaking of chains will not occur. Randomness can be eliminated


So, that’s my 2 cents worth at this moment. In terms of #1 above – I have some “rules” I am working on at the moment that seem to be giving me some good success. I will post these at a later time.
 

Wiilio

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Re: Shiny Pokemon with the Pokeradar

Great info as usual, CrownFire. Keep up the good work.
 

dukeburger

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Re: Shiny Pokemon with the Pokeradar

Hamlet. <3

Anyway, interesting post, CrownFire. I've read through it and there are some things I would like to comment on.

A hypothesis that is example of the latter: one thought is that the probability of the chain breaking may be related to the encounter rate of the particular Pokemon in the wild. The hypothesis I’ve seen is the lower the encounter rate the lower the probability of the chain continuing. If this hypothesis is true, there is nothing we can do about this particular condition when chaining a particular Pokemon beyond assuring that other conditions we do have the choice to accept are optimal before stepping into the shaking patch.

I believe that there is a much simpler answer to this, than the game "consciously" taking into account the appearance rate when you chain. I think Niele first brought this idea up. Let's say for instance, that there IS a random factor involved in chaining that we can never eliminate... or that we will never figure out. Based on that, let's say every furthest patch, that satisfies all hierarchical conditions that we know of, has a 90% chance of being the Pokemon you're chaining. You go to the patch that seems to meet all these conditions, yet the patch falls into the unlucky 10% chance that breaks the chain. Well, what are you going to find there? The game is going to randomly generate a wild Pokemon based on the appearance rates in the area. If you're chaining a swarm, chances are good that you will run into that Pokemon anyway, and the chain will continue as if the game planned on having that Pokemon all along. If you're chaining something rare, obviously the chances that you would randomly run into it aren't good, thus making it seem as if appearance rate directly affects chaining, and I don't believe that it does. You can disagree of course, but I think that this is the simplest and most logical explanation.

The Fog of Chaining

The fact that the conditions for chaining are probabilistic and not deterministic makes it very difficult to elicit the underlying rules controlling chaining, because in some cases you can “break the rule” (i.e., implement a procedure with a low probability of success) and still have the desired outcome occur. For instance – going to an edge or corner shaking patch and not have it break the chain. Or, another one that I’ve taken advantage of all too many times, going (accidentally) to a shaking patch that is not the farthest – in some cases only 1 step away – and have it continue the chain rather than break it.

To start off... maybe I am misunderstanding you, but going to an edge or corner I would say does fall under the deterministic category. It's not like the coding for chaining thinks "Edge/corner? No good." By going to a patch on the edge or corner, the chainer is actively diminishing the chances that the chain will continue, because you are diminishing the radar's range. You need at least one full ring of 8 patches around you to guarantee that the radar will hit one of them and that the chain will continue. Even if there is just one blank spot, that could be the one that the radar was going to hit, and all the rest could theoretically lie in all the tiles outside of your patch of grass. So, you either get lucky when the radar resets itself, or you don't. It's your own fault though for purposely entering a patch that does not guarantee the range of the radar. You should never do it, unless of course the patch is shiny and you don't care if your chain ends after that.

On the other hand, accidentally choosing a patch that's not the furthest would apply to what I said before about appearance rates. A patch that's not the furthest isn't going to be programmed with the Pokemon you're looking for, but based on appearance rates, it could still be there.

One symptom of being in the fog is professing a rule (putting forth a hypothesis) that has SOME relation to the actual underlying rule, its relatively accurate, and thus results in a relatively high number of successes, but actually misses the mark to a more or less degree. A classic example of this I’ve seen (as many have noted here) – the web has numerous chaining guides directing the Chainer to always go to the shaking patch occurring in the 4th box from the center. If you compare this rule to the hypothesis we’ve been operating under (since Skye’s post #1501 – suggesting to go to the shaking patch that is the most steps away) you have to agree that the farthest shaking patch most often occurs in the 4th box out – but in a small number of cases in the 3rd box. So, as happened for many of us in our beginning experiments with chaining, the Chainer will have some success always going to the patch in the 4th box and may thus continue using that procedure. However, using Skye’s hypothesis results in a higher success rate.

I'm honestly not sure how this rule came about (well, from Skye, but you know what I mean). I had plenty of chains make it to 40 before this was discovered and I never really consciously thought about the rings. I know I was very often going to whichever patch was the furthest, fourth ring or not. You know what though? I'm not really arguing this one. The fourth ring rule has made life easier because I can easily recognize patterns and know what to look for by using it. I also just feel safer doing it because it's so accepted by other chainers now. Am I 100% sure that it's an essential rule? No. But like I said... if it's not broken, don't fix it.

Secondary Conditions’ Increasing Weight in the Aggregated Probability

Another aspect of things I believe is going on in the fog: it seems the higher the chain number the higher the probability of NOT encountering the chained Poke in the shaking patch. There have been numerous reports of a high incidence of chain breakage in the higher reaches of chains. I have experienced this myself.

I believe this can be attributed to secondary conditions imposing a greater impact on the aggregated probability at the higher chain numbers. So certain practices which have a reasonable probability at the lower end of a chain can evolve to a low probability at higher numbers in the chain. Totoro’s post #3261 talks about when he starts applying certain rules. I too am relatively sloppy AND successful in the lower numbers of a chain. Then, as the chain continues I tend to pay more attention and am more discerning in choosing when I go into a patch or reset the radar.

Again, I believe that there is a much simpler explanation. In an situation governed by probability, the longer you let your luck ride, the more likely it is that it will run out. Now, before anyone cries "gambler's fallacy!" let me explain, because I think even people who can recognize gambler's fallacy still don't understand probability. I too have wondered if the game is generous to you on chains of 10 or less; for every 10 Pokemon you add to the chain, does the game take into account more factors, thus making chaining harder? It would seem so, since it is very easy to get a chain to 10, but not always to get one to even 30, much less 40. While I honestly do believe that this may be true, I think that the more likely explanation is just that the longer you keep taking chances, the more likely it is that you will lose. Basing this argument with my 90% chance I mentioned before, let's say you get all the way to the mid-high 30s, and your chain breaks. Well, if you're continuously riding on a 90% chance, what do you expect? Of course, people will say "Well, at a chain of 39, the chances that the next patch you go to will bring you to 40, assuming you follow all the rules, is still 90%. It's gambler's fallacy to believe that the chances are anything else." Well I guess this is like reverse gambler's fallacy or something. While the statement IS true, people forget that probability is actually based on something... i.e. the occurrence of certain results over an infinite amount of time. Obviously, we can't comprehend infinity. But a chain of 39 is closer to infinity than a chain of 10, thus making it more likely for infinity to kick in and say "Based on probability, you've been riding on your 90% waaay too long... I'm breaking your chain now."

This is, of course, assuming that chains are subject to probability, no matter how skilled the chainer is. However, as of right now, since we have not yet determined whether our chains break to randomness or some pattern or rule we haven't yet discovered... we still must account for that percentage of times that our chains break. At this point, not being able to factor in a rule would still leave us at the mercy of probability, as it would if we found out that there is some random factor beyond our control.

The General Hypotheses I am Operating Under At the Moment

The following ideas are what I choose to believe at this time:
1. There are still rules to be discovered which, if followed, will give a higher probability of continuing a chain than what has been heretofor proposed.
2. It is possible that if all rules are discovered and followed that random breaking of chains will not occur. Randomness can be eliminated


So, that’s my 2 cents worth at this moment. In terms of #1 above – I have some “rules” I am working on at the moment that seem to be giving me some good success. I will post these at a later time.

While I have complete respect for your ideas, for some reason, I pessimistically believe that there are no more rules, we can't totally eliminate randomness, and that the game is just mean. I just think that at this point, we would have discovered it... and since we haven't, we will just start over-thinking and find patterns that don't really exist, solely because we're consciously looking for them. And then the whole thing will become a convoluted mess of rules that sound far too superfluous, which as I mentioned in an earlier post, is my opinion of the guide at Smogon.

However, I do hope that you're the one who's right about all this. It would be great if we could nail down a final rule or two, once and for all. I look forward to hearing the rules that you're working on, and I hope that what I've said makes some sense at least and won't be totally dismissed.
 

BlueDitto

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Re: Shiny Pokemon with the Pokeradar

can i just ask where people found Eevee's with the pokeradar?

They are not on the list of 'Exclusive Chain Pokemon' on Bulbapedia... so i waited for them to be present in the mansion's garden, but still had no luck finding any with the pokeradar.

is there somewhere else or did i just not look far enough?
 

freddie515

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Re: Shiny Pokemon with the Pokeradar

can i just ask where people found Eevee's with the pokeradar?

They are not on the list of 'Exclusive Chain Pokemon' on Bulbapedia... so i waited for them to be present in the mansion's garden, but still had no luck finding any with the pokeradar.

is there somewhere else or did i just not look far enough?

They're in Mr Backlots garden, talk to him every day until he says he saw a "Cute eyed EEVEE which joyously ran up to me and gave me a kiss on the cheek"
 
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