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Shiny Pokémon with the Pokéradar

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Totoro

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You need to upload the graph onto an image hosting site, like Photobucket, and from there take the IMG Code and paste it into a post here. Not sure how you'd get about putting a graph on Photobucket though...but that's porbably just me...

I'll start my Cubone chain shortly, and hope for good results!

OK, thanks Hagane_Gir. I added a couple more shinies to get my Gloom chain to 10 before kind of hitting the wall. I kept having the patch behind my pokedude's head shake and one of them seemed pretty sparkly, so I just chanced it and dove in, only to find a venomoth. Oh well, I was ready to quite anyway as my thumbs were getting kind of sore.

Anyway, here's the data so far. Let me know if you think I'm not representing things correctly:
data.jpg


Here's a graph showing encounter rates of our shinies, including that somewhat outlying shiny I got after a single reset at chain 46:

chart1.jpg


Here's another look at the same graph with that chain 46 point out of the graph's range to better show our encounter rates:

chart2.jpg


On the graphs, the higher the point is vertically, the higher the encounter rate. So far....well there is no clear trend to the data. Maybe a slight regression toward increasing encounter rates as the chain increases, but nothing appearing to be exponential. The encounter rates seem to vary widely between chains of 40 and 50. Shinies have come quickly in some cases, but have also taken as many as 10,000+ steps (equivalent to 160+ resets of the pokeradar). Although Belthazar considers himself worthy of some quick shinies due to his labors, so far he seems to be encountering shinies with the least amount of work. ; }

Clearly, there seems to be no compelling evidence that chaining beyond 40 dramatically increases your encounter rate, but we need more data, so please keep collecting it when you reach your desired chain length and start resetting. Also, we need some data from chains begun below 40 to test the curve. So, if someone wants to start resetting at 35 or 30 and tracking your efforts, that would be great.
 

Hagane_Gir

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I've had the worst chaining day so unfortunately I have nothing to give to the data so far tonight. Every chain of Cubone I've had so far has broken at either 16 or 34, no joke. It's getting annoying, but I'll keep trying tonight...

xDD "Polemon"
 

Totoro

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I've had the worst chaining day so unfortunately I have nothing to give to the data so far tonight. Every chain of Cubone I've had so far has broken at either 16 or 34, no joke. It's getting annoying, but I'll keep trying tonight...

xDD "Polemon"

Cubones have my number too. Gotten several chains to 35+ with no shinies to show for it. Win some you lose some with those little polemon, eh?
 
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Shuko

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Unfortunately, I hadn't been keeping track when I started resetting. :p I did accidentally hit a patch of grass though, but it continued my chain (whew!). Anyway, last night I caught my first shiny meowth. A female named Pinky. :3 I'm going to keep going and catch a lot of them. I want a team of shiny Pickup Meowths I can train to level 100. :p
 

Belthazar

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Hey, those are some pretty impressive plots. =)

I kept having the patch behind my pokedude's head shake and one of them seemed pretty sparkly, so I just chanced it and dove in, only to find a venomoth.
Heh, I keep suspecting the same, but I've managed to resist the temptation so far. =)

Anyway, here's the data so far. Let me know if you think I'm not representing things correctly:
I think I'm averaging closer to four patches per reset. I generally reset close enough to the center of the grassy area that I can always see four. Sometimes I don't reset at fifty steps - due to inattention, I overrun a couple of times - but I think that averages out to be pretty small.

So far....well there is no clear trend to the data.
Yes, I noticed that. However, if we're concentrating on the forty to fifty range, where it's been hypothesised that there's no increase in probability, then we expect to see a roughly horizontal trend. I think that's what we're seeing here - the apparent lack of trend may be simply due to the resolution. Methinks we need a much larger sample group. =)

Although Belthazar considers himself worthy of some quick shinies due to his labors, so far he seems to be encountering shinies with the least amount of work. ; }
Piffle - I want my shinies easy. =Þ

So, if someone wants to start resetting at 35 or 30 and tracking your efforts, that would be great.
I'm currently going after Buneary, but they're quite difficult to nail down due to the high number of Pokemon available in the Eterna Forest - that, and the silly gits keep using Endure on me - so I'm considering attempting to reset at a lower chain. It'll probably drive me Zubatty, though.
 

Nicole

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55%, according to the Bulbagarden wiki page.

I thought that was only in the morning? It says Machop is 35% during the day so Geodude must be 65% during the day.

Hmm... that's not so good. You could try a trick others have used - place a screen protector over the upper screen, and use a marker of some kind (a CD-writing marker is ideal) to trace out the outlines of the third and fourth rings on the screen. Since the player character is always in the centre of the screen, the third and fourth rings will always be in the same place (unless you're going up and down stairs, or something).

Yeah, that sounds like a good idea! I might find chaining a lot easier if I try it. I'll buy a screen protector and some CD pens.

On a side note, you mentioned in another thread you were breeding a Geodude for use in contests, and you also mentioned in this thread you wanted a shiny Geodude. How about a shiny Geodude for use in contests? Because I managed to catch a shiny Geodude with Lax nature (likes sour). Want it? =)

*GASP*

What? You mean you'd actually give me a shiny Geodude you took the time to catch yourself? Really???

Cryingemoticon.gif


That's so nice. I'm really sorry. I don't know why, but I find it really emotionally overwhelming when someone offers me something of theirs like that. I'm really grateful.
You would really let me have it? Umm...what do you want me to give you in return? You can have a Rayquaza or something if you want. I ordered a wi-fi adapter in the post and it should arrive tomorrow.
 

Belthazar

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I thought that was only in the morning? It says Machop is 35% during the day so Geodude must be 65% during the day.
That I'm not certain of. It's one of the slight downsides of the Bulbagarden wiki - sometimes the pages are incomplete, so the Pokemon percentages don't add up to 100%. Or they add up to more than 100%.

What? You mean you'd actually give me a shiny Geodude you took the time to catch yourself? Really???
Yeah, I would. It's not that big a deal, really - I have spares. =)

You would really let me have it? Umm...what do you want me to give you in return? You can have a Rayquaza or something if you want. I ordered a wi-fi adapter in the post and it should arrive tomorrow.
I'm not overly fussed. A Rayquaza would do nicely. =D
 

Allydawn

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If you're still needing data, I have some from my Glameow chain. It's still going, but I'll be busy for the next little while so I'm not sure when I can continue. I just really want a shiny male Glameow, I've promised a friend I'd find one for her... but so far, all 15 have been female. ;_; I'm not feeling so lucky.

Anyway, I didn't start keeping track until the chain was at 45, but here's the data for that and onwards:

45 : 6703 steps :: 107 resets :: 375 patches
46 : 5374 steps :: 86 resets :: 301 patches
47 : 1689 steps :: 27 resets :: 95 patches
48 : 675 steps :: 11 resets :: 38 patches
49 : 2264 steps :: 36 resets :: 127 patches
50 : 11214 steps :: 179 resets :: 628 patches
51 : 6793 steps :: 109 resets :: 380 patches
52 : 1286 steps :: 21 resets :: 72 patches
53 : 4947 steps :: 79 resets :: 269 patches

Hopefully I did my math right... but feel free to correct anything. ^^;
 

Totoro

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Unfortunately, I hadn't been keeping track when I started resetting. :p I did accidentally hit a patch of grass though, but it continued my chain (whew!). Anyway, last night I caught my first shiny meowth. A female named Pinky. :3 I'm going to keep going and catch a lot of them. I want a team of shiny Pickup Meowths I can train to level 100. :p

Hey Shuko, congratulations on the Meowth. What chain are you on, like a 32 by now? If you keep going, please track your steps between shinies and report them as we really need data from that chain range!! Good luck!

Piffle

silly gits keep using Endure on me -

piffle and gits

*GASP*

What? You mean you'd actually give me a shiny Geodude you took the time to catch yourself? Really???

I second that Nicole. I haven't got your castform yet, but have mucho shiny glooms and am happy to share them. Want one? No charge. I'm happy to share with people trying to chain but having bad luck!

If you're still needing data, I have some from my Glameow chain. ^^;

Nice work Niele. I'll add your data and repost soon when we get a bit more collected. Keep it coming!
 

Belthazar

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so far, all 15 have been female. ;_; I'm not feeling so lucky.
75% of Glameow are female. That said, reaching fifteen is quite impressive. =)

piffle and gits
¿que?

i gonna chain but i don't know which pokemon
It's up to you. As Nicole observed, Geodude on Route 207 have at least a 55% chance of appearing, and it's a pretty good patch to chain in. There's also the big patch on Route 222. Quite often it's also good to chain the Swarm-of-the-Day Pokemon, but they're not always in a useful area.


As for my own chain, I lost my Buneary chain to a Nincada. Then I got a Nincada chain and lost it to a Silcoon. Got another Nincada chain and lost it to a Budew. Got a Wurmple chain, and lost it to another Silcoon. Got a Budew chain and lost it to a Wurmple. Got another Nincada chain and lost it to a Silcoon. I think I'm detecting a trend, here. In any case, none of these chains got above twenty. I was almost tempted to just do resetting from zero to see how long it would take me, but gave up on that when I realised that I would expect to use about five hundred super repels (and I've only got two hundred on me).

I've now gotten another Buneary chain - I'm taking it nice and slow, no risks at all, since I promised poke_fan a shiny Buneary. I'm up to twenty now, but I'm off to bed - it's probably better to chain when I'm not tired. =D
 

Cosmar

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i gonna chain but i don't know which pokemon

Swarms are your best bet.

Meh, I tried chaining Sneasel at Lake Acuity, but stupid Bibarel kept breaking the chain >_< *makes Darkrai use Dark Void on Bibarel, Bibarel gets trapped in an eternal nightmare* That's for breaking my chains! D:<


Blah, I'll just stick to Swarms, and use any Shinies I get as trade fodder for something I like...*cough*MaleShinyEevee*cough*
 

Masterkraft

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Gah, still no shinies, can't seem to get my chains past 30, though I know what I'm doing wrong so it's not all bad.
 

Alecko

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Meh, just been practising chaining again. My swarm today is Krabby which I'm not too keen on but hey, it's easy to run into so I went out to the route. Got up to six then a Rattata broke the chain. Tried again; first Pokémon I found was a Rattata again so I went with that. Got it up to 18 then a Krabby broke it.

18 is the third longest chain I've done so I'm kind of happy about that but annoyed as well as I don't see why the chain actually broke. :-/ I was being extra careful as well, it had four patches, three bunched together and one clearly the furthest away, right patch but still the damned Krabby turned up. Meh. Stopped for a bit. Might go try Pachirisu again.
 

arcashinx

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i'm chain chaining machops now*chain is now 12*

update: my chain broke:-(
 
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UtterAddict

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Grahhh. The highest chain i've got up to so far was 18 with Roselia in the trophy garden. They keep popping up when I want to chain Jigglypuff. ;_; Jigglys are horrible to chain, but I want a shiny one soo badly, I even named it...Seraphina...(if I eventually get one, it better be a girl XD)
*sigh*
 

Totoro

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If you're still needing data, I have some from my Glameow chain. It's still going, but I'll be busy for the next little while so I'm not sure when I can continue. I just really want a shiny male Glameow, I've promised a friend I'd find one for her... but so far, all 15 have been female. ;_; I'm not feeling so lucky.

Anyway, I didn't start keeping track until the chain was at 45, but here's the data for that and onwards:

45 : 6703 steps :: 107 resets :: 375 patches
46 : 5374 steps :: 86 resets :: 301 patches
47 : 1689 steps :: 27 resets :: 95 patches
48 : 675 steps :: 11 resets :: 38 patches
49 : 2264 steps :: 36 resets :: 127 patches
50 : 11214 steps :: 179 resets :: 628 patches
51 : 6793 steps :: 109 resets :: 380 patches
52 : 1286 steps :: 21 resets :: 72 patches
53 : 4947 steps :: 79 resets :: 269 patches

Hopefully I did my math right... but feel free to correct anything. ^^;

Niele, just entered your data, thanks. Did you say you have actually caught 15 shinies on this chain? Is #45 your 7th shiny? Not sure if that matters, but I'm tracking that too. Just let me know sometime and I'll plug that in. So far, you have the record for the most resets between shinies (#50- 11,214 steps)! Congratulations on that dubious honor! Good luck getting that Tomcat!
 

Allydawn

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Niele, just entered your data, thanks. Did you say you have actually caught 15 shinies on this chain? Is #45 your 7th shiny? Not sure if that matters, but I'm tracking that too. Just let me know sometime and I'll plug that in. So far, you have the record for the most resets between shinies (#50- 11,214 steps)! Congratulations on that dubious honor! Good luck getting that Tomcat!
Yes, that's right. Also, I'm not sure if it matters, but I originally started resetting at a chain of 36, and was counting my resets. I got up to about 800+ before I gave up and chained a couple more. Then I forgot to keep track, and didn't start again until 45... I regret that now.

Also, some new data to add:

54 : 12885 steps :: 206 resets :: 722 patches
55 : 1406 steps :: 22 resets :: 79 patches

So I guess beat my own record with the most resets between shinies. Even though I'm getting a lot of shinies, I feel pretty unlucky. With the 1/4 chance, I should have had around 4 males by now, but still none. :( I'm probably going to give up soon.
 
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