USA Election Night 2009

[Big Lutz]

Looks like stations are starting to call for Owens. Thank God.

I think the result is clear: Republicans win when they nominate solid conservative candidates who PROJECT A MODERATE IMAGE. I don't doubt McDonnell's or even Christie's conservative credentials, but both still looked like reasonable men who would concentrate on kitchen table issues. Hoffman smacked of an ideological crusade, which the moderate NY-23 wanted nothing of.

Yeah, its over. But also remember that there were many things going against Hoffman, he is not the most photogenic person, he had the Republican Candidate not only turn against him but whole heartedly endorce the other side. He also came in extremely late with out any backing from the NRCC.

The man went from being in the single digits in support to 46% if not more. That alone is pretty freaking amazing.

 

[evkl]

It's always good news for Republicans.

NY-23 hasn't elected a Dem since right after the Civil War.

Cali-10 is another (quiet) win for the Dems, and I'm disappointed with the direction Prop 1 seems to be taking, but we'll see...

 

[Misty]

Mostly because his supporters literally blitzed the district. Had the election been later than today, he would have lost by more due to his inability to handle local issues. As it was, he rocketed out of nowhere with the help of bigwig star power - which is kind of ironic when you consider how well Doug Hoffman's story tracks with Sarah Palin's.

 

[Big Lutz]

Well we really wouldn't know what would happen if it went further than today. The NRCC did not endorse him till over the weekend and gave him little to no funds, not to mention he was still shaking off the brutal fight between him and Dede. We really have no idea how it would have broken if he was given a few more weeks.

 

[Misty]

Admittedly, the money race is a little unpredictable - there were many Democrats who mused about how they WANTED Hoffman to win in order to start a Republican civil war. On the other hand, money only talks so much, and I think, on the face of it, Owens was the better candidate for this district. Like I said, I think moderate swing districts are a poor place to launch crusades from - it's much more effective if you're in, say, a San Francisco district or a rural southern district (note that many of the Democrats' most partisan liberals are from California, while many of the Republicans' are from the south). On this note, Alan Grayson is going to get sent out on his ass in 2010.

 

[Eredar Warlock]

The upstate NY race is a pretty minor impact race - about the only "big deal" is that it hasn't seen a Democrat there in over a century. The biggest factor is that it's likely voters stayed home.

The New Jersey race, however, is a big deal, a very big deal. New Jersey is a very, very blue state, and Christie winning by a typical political margin does say something.

 

[Misty]

It says that Corzine was just about the worst possible candidate ever. Seriously, a former Goldman Sachs executive? The fact that he managed 45% of the vote is embarrassing to New Jersey, really.

 

[Misty]

Hoffman conceded. Owens wins.

 

[evkl]

OWENSMENTUM!

More to the point, while I think it's interesting that the NY-23 didn't jump on the Tea Party candidate, I don't think this has any real implications for either Republican strategy or overall electoral outcomes in 2010.

 

[Covet]

I will say this about the elected officials races... I am so glad Susan Hutchinson didn't win. I honestly thought her campaign video was a joke when I first saw it. It's just... amazing.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBEkwOoRSCI

It also looks like R-71 (the "everything but marriage" referendum in WA) is going to pass. One step in the right direction. Same-sex marriage up next!

 

[Satoshi-chan]

I will say this about the elected officials races... I am so glad Susan Hutchinson didn't win. I honestly thought her campaign video was a joke when I first saw it. It's just... amazing.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBEkwOoRSCI

Well, that's definitely not her campaign video. Read the fine print at the end, it's a smear video. Also note when talking about retirement and Wall Street, you see the graph going way down, it's totally a smear.

 

[Covet]

Well, that's definitely not her campaign video. Read the fine print at the end, it's a smear video. Also note when talking about retirement and Wall Street, you see the graph going way down, it's totally a smear.

Then I'm definitely the appropriate audience as I totally didn't notice that while watching it on TV. I'm glad, then, that no one would be that stupid to make a video like that!

 

[Big Lutz]

Well it looks like Gay Marriage was turned down in Maine if I am reading the AP right, that kind of sucks because I am in the 'Who cares' camp, but I am also in the camp of respecting the voice of the people. So I am split.

Anyway now time for all the break downs, it should be interesting seeing how far the independents broke for the Republicans in NJ and Virginia, a near 20 point win in Virginia and near 5 point win in NJ gives the Blue Dogs ALOT of ammo come tomorrow on Health Care.

Oh and one last thing, from Jake Tapper at ABC News around the time the first Poll results from Virginia and NJ were coming in: "NBC's "The Biggest Loser" is at the White House tonight. This is not a joke.

Best. Tweet. EVER.

 

[The Big Al]

Owens is projected to defeat Hoffman.

Anyway, I think Democrats can take some things away from this.
*The Obama coalition didn't show up. It's not that they've turned on Obama, it's that they didn't show up.
*Kissing Republican asses is not going to win you elections. Deeds said he would opt out of the public option if given the chance. There's already a Republican on the ballot. Your base didn't switch sides, it didn't show up.
*Main Street Good. Wall Street Bad. Corzine lost and Bloomberg barely won. What do they have in common? Both are in bed with Wall Street. Drop Wall Street like a bad habit and focus on Main Street issues in the coming year. That's where we need to fix the economy and where your voters are.
*Get Shit Done! Simple as that. You've been handed the majority not to fart around but do something.

 

[Big Lutz]

I think last night Big Al, all your rhetoric about "Republicans are dying" and "Republicans are marginalizing themselves" that you have been spewing for months has been shown to be as wrong and false as we all knew it was.

The only way Democrats were able to squeak out a victory last night was by having a candidate that positioned himself as a Reagan Conservative. Democrats were massacred in Virginia where Independents that went for Obama last year went in droves for not one, not two, but three Republicans to sweep the top three spots.

And yes, that is a referendum on Obama, you do not lose by that bad in NJ and Virginia with out national politics and the toxic Democrat name playing a major part.

 

[Netto Azure]

I think last night Big Al, all your rhetoric about "Republicans are dying" and "Republicans are marginalizing themselves" that you have been spewing for months has been shown to be as wrong and false as we all knew it was.

Wait, didn't the NY seat go to a Dem? :O

And I'll go with Al on this one, any ties with Wall St. is baggage.

The only way Democrats were able to squeak out a victory last night was by having a candidate that positioned himself as a Reagan Conservative. Democrats were massacred in Virginia where Independents that went for Obama last year went in droves for not one, not two, but three Republicans to sweep the top three spots.

Well the coalition wasn't head over heels on the Virginia Candidate, Corzine pretty much flooded the air-waves with ad hominem attacks on Chris Christie when he was behind, but meh do better next time.

And yes, that is a referendum on Obama, you do not lose by that bad in NJ and Virginia with out national politics and the toxic Democrat name playing a major part.

I wouldn't say that, the whole Blue State - Red State split is still there. Well, all politics is local on this case. and should I quote it again?

 

[Big Lutz]

Wait, didn't the NY seat go to a Dem? :O

Only by the Dem going Conservative, and the Republican and Conservative Candidate slugging it out with the Conservative candidate being in the race for 30 days. To put it another way the Dems were so weak in NY 23 the only way they could squeak out a victory was by going Reagan Conservative and campaigning against the public option, and having the other two candidates slug it out before getting endorsed by the Republican. If you guys want to consider that a victory you can. But I don't see how you could.

Well the coalition wasn't head over heels on the Virginia Candidate,

And yet Obama and his staff worked Virginia, including several trips down there.

Corzine pretty much flooded the air-waves with ad hominem attacks on Chris Christie when he was behind, but meh do better next time.

And guess what? Out of the three candidates Corzine was the one that was attached to Obama at the hip, he had the White House running that campaign. The man was the face and voice of Barack Obama. And the Republicans got a massive victory in one of the bluest of blue states.

I wouldn't say that, the whole Blue State - Red State split is still there. Well, all politics is local on this case. and should I quote it again?

The Blue State Red State split got ALOT smaller for the Blue State last night. Again I note that a 18 point victory wasn't just for local politics, and NJ not being a cliffhanger 1 or 2 point victory points to that as well. If it were closer say single digits in Virginia, and recounts in New Jersey I would agree with you. But no, this was a referendum in part on Obama, and the toxic name the Democrats have become in one year. The absolute size of the loss for the Democrats is proof positive of that.

I will also add that the disenfranchisement of Independents with the Democrat name, and the loss of energy among the Black community is something that is not a local issue, and it is what helped sweep Republicans into states that went for Obama last year.

Or as the Washington Post put it

The most significant change came among independent voters, who solidly backed Democrats in 2006 and 2008 but moved decisively to the Republicans on Tuesday, according to exit polls. In Virginia, independents strongly supported Republican Robert F. McDonnell in his victory over Democrat R. Creigh Deeds, while in New Jersey, they supported Republican Chris Christie in his win over Democratic Gov. Jon S. Corzine.

For months, polls have shown that independents were increasingly disaffected with some of Obama's domestic policies. They have expressed reservations about the president's health-care efforts and have shown concerns about the growth in government spending and the federal deficit under his leadership.

 

[Misty]

http://www.mydd.com/story/2009/11/3/173721/146

Per CNN, voters in Virginia did not see their state's gubernatorial race as an opportunity to voice opposition to Barack Obama. A 55 percent majority of voters said that the President was not a factor in their vote, and an additional 18 percent indicated their vote in Virginia was one of support in the President. Just 24 percent of voters indicated that their vote was one of opposition to President Obama. The numbers out of New Jersey are not terribly different, with 60 percent saying that Barack Obama played no role in their gubernatorial vote, 19 percent saying that their vote was one in support of the President, and 20 percent saying that their vote was in opposition to President Obama.

 

[evkl]

I think in trying to make this a referedum on Obama, conservatives really...well, they want it to be that. They want to translate a 1-seat loss in the House, with another House seat going to a much more liberal Dem, and two gubernatorial wins as some sweeping election victory. But it isn't!

 

[Big Lutz]

I think in trying to make this a referedum on Obama, conservatives really...well, they want it to be that. They want to translate a 1-seat loss in the House, with another House seat going to a much more liberal Dem, and two gubernatorial wins as some sweeping election victory. But it isn't!

Yeah it is, you had a sweep in Virginia and a massive pick up in New Jersey, one of the bluest states out of the Union. The Democrats got a seat they were always going to win, but won by a much smaller margin, and another seat that they had to go extremely conservative to win. Just a year after everyone was saying the GOP is dead, Conservatism is dead, and the Democrats get beaten THIS BADLY. That in and of itself is a major victory.

@Misty I do want to remind you that people can say they are not placing their vote for or against Obama, and yet doing that exact same thing. The President is personally popular, but his policies are not, and his policies, not his personal popularity are what is dragging down Democrats right now, and is a big reason why Independents jumped ship as the Washington Post shows.

I have no doubt that most of the people did not cast their vote for or against Obama in Virginia or the extremely blue New Jersey. That being said there is also no doubt that the toxic nature of the Democratic Party right now, combined with policies that have turned off voters, played a major factor in this election.

Remember, people can voice opposition to Obama in many different ways, swinging over to the Republican side in droves because they do not like the bills and policies coming out of Congress is one of those ways, and that did happen last night.