Mafia ZD X BMG 2019 Link’s Awakening Hydra Mafia Crossover Game Thread

[thesunspear]

We've been very clear and vocal about our reads.
S&N and ZMS have been our biggest scumreads (DDI a third suspect, but with a gap). We initially went after S&N but eventually decided that we considered the implosion to be more likely than not a towntell. We switched to ZMS and have been the first hydra in this game to formerly suspect them.
We're still voting for ZMS, they are our preferred lynch. The only other promising bandwagon atm is on S&N. We'd rather have ZMS lynched, but we also stated that even just out of a punishment for their implosion & self-vote, they woud truly deserve to be lynched. If their lynch really becomes unavoidable, so be it. We can live with an S&N lynch as an alternative.

There is truly nothing right now that we object to and need to fight. We are perfectly happy with the situation.

yeah honestly its basically impossible for me to read the line of "[We] have been the first hydra in this game to [formally] suspect them." as anything other than a bus. I've already told Moe that I am wagering his mafia career that aflame is busing here.

 

[thesunspear]

I wager sunfan's mafia career that aflame is not bussing
this way I always get a career back

 

[Aflame]

Alright. Heard from my Snake head that the two people he would lynch are between H&S and thesunspear, so I'm confident in my vote.

Analysis start!

Day One:

Vote: Aflame
For having a username so short it makes voting easier for people.

RVS vote. Nuff said. This was the second vote on Aflame aside from leetic.

I don’t love this post, jumping onto Aflame for what looks to me could simply be cautious Town play, and expecting solid reads right off the bat at a point when those are often scarce. I also don’t understand your earlier scumread and vote for dum dum idiots, who as far as I can tell have been logical and trying to pry for reasoning. And there’s also that one question by Restless you initially answered with more questions before actually giving a clear response...I’m not sure what to think of you, but I’m more comfortable voting you than Aflame at this point.

Unvote: Aflame
Vote: leetic and the band

This marks the point where H&S begins defending us saying that our hesitance to vote is due to us being cautious with presenting reads. Then they goes after leetic, implying that leetic's scumreads were suspicious and that leetic's response to Restless were dodgy. This was the second vote on leetic aside from Restless Ridge.

I understand that pressure votes are a thing. Sometimes people may prefer to ask questions without laying down a vote right away. But I can understand your perspective.


What kind of non-answer about your supposed Town reads is this? Smells like avoidance to me. And I still don’t like your insistence that Chillian is instantly Town that you repeated earlier on. I’m growing a bit suspicious of you.
Unvote: leetic and the band
Vote: thesunspear

H&S sees why leetic saw their defense suspicious considering we could have just answered for ourselves. He then decides to change his vote to thesunspear, taking issue with the vague way they answered leetic's question. At this point, it becomes clear to them that thesunspear is playing pretty scummy considering the kinds of responses they are giving. This was the second vote on thesunspear aside from Lone Wolf.

Night One:

Woah...lucky lynch there!

Totally OMGUS.
(Okay, I know that term is used for reactions to votes, but I wanted to point out the only immediate reaction to D1's lynch. And yes, this is me being sarcastic as denoted by the word "totally.")

Day Two:

I honestly already had a feeling S&N was Town. Since early Day 1, to be more precise. However, I'm not saying why until Endgame.

While it made S&N lean Town in this head's eyes, I will admit I wasn't 100% certain.

Actually, my partner has refreshed my memory, and part of his Townread on S&N was a reason we’re not allowed to discuss ^^;

While scourging through for votes, these posts caught me as the most suspicious. I'm pretty sure the Mafia wouldn't pass up on posts like this, meaning if H&S is actually Town, that makes it even MORE confusing as to what happened last night.

Alright back to vote analysis.

Hey y’all, here I am! Sorry I was absent so much in the last half of D1.

[A few hours later...]

Hmm, besides spear, I have my suspicions on Ridge, T&H, and maybe LatB to an extent. They’ve all done some things that seem contributive but others that strike me as suspicious. Spear definitely hasn’t wowed me so far, and the T&H vote looks like it could be promising.

vote: Tommy & Hal

A giant block of replies of them catching up to D2. It's clear that they're still suspicious of thesunspear, but they decide to vote T&H due to their weird aversion of wallposts and for their weird reasoning for lynching a miller. This was the second vote on T&H aside from Mafia Nursing Home.

Day Three:

Happened to look back and well, well...If this isn't scumspeak in light of Chillian's flip, I'll gladly take a Fairy-Type move to the face.
Vote: thesunspear

And finally, they vote for thesunspear this day, taking into account sunspear's "joke posts" about Chillian being Town D1. This was the second vote on thesunspear aside from leetic.

Conclusion

The important thing to note here (including the RVS vote, incidentally) is that for every vote, H&S were always the second person to vote on the ongoing wagon at that time. Even when their suspicions of thesunspear were growing throughout each day, they still waited for leetic to vote for them before voting themselves. While my other head does find thesunspear scummy, I think they're just an easy target to pick on at this point. I find it suspicious that H&S has consistently voted second on every ongoing wagon and that the small bit of clarification between the heads D2 would have had pretty big implications for Mafia and who they would target that night if H&S was actually Town.

 

[Greymon]

Let's do a little exercise here: @Aflame @Hydreigon & Shelgon GX @Mafia Nursing Home @Lone_Wolf @dum dum idiots @Restless_Ridge @thesunspear (and my partner is invited to join as well)

If you could only have two lynches at this point, who would they be? (For me, thesunspear and H&S GX)

I'd say H&S and RR. Everyone else is at varying levels of towniness with those two being my lowest opinions. H&S has been very tunnelly without much effort to look at the rest of the game. RR is more of a "worst of the better ones" situation. They were making decent posts earlier on, but everyone else feels more solid as a Town-read than RR does.

@Lone_Wolf and @dum dum idiots since you replyed: What are your reads on me so far?

I'm reading you as Town because I'm reading your slot as Town. Your slot essentially started the ZMS wagon, and I can't see actual scum going for such a hardcore bus that early and with that little prompting. If I tried to read you specifically since subbing in I'd probably have a rough time of it thanks to how little time it's been, and if I tried to gut-read you I'd probably just fall into the Town-read from your slot sooooo... /shrug

At this point I'm just gonna place an honorary vote on H&S without actually voting them because I don't wanna accidentally trigger a hammer or anything.

 

[Paul and the band]

i've watched enough apocalypse/disaster movies to be thoroughly saddo for a while lol

iso'd chillian just now, gained nothing. nicely played, you guys.

gonna go into h&s next, then ddi

 

[Paul and the band]

iso'd h&s. they talked about chillian earlier in the game. scum tends to not interact with their partner much, so slight townie points for that. not much interaction otherwise though

i thought it was wolfy that they left their vote on someone who wasn't s&n or zms d1, and they had minimal interaction with zms. prolly why i didn't like them in the first place huh

i have no idea what to make of this quote

Hmm, interesting how Sunspear still hasn’t answered my question about why they said they didn’t want an investigation on S&N before the whole Miller revelation. (And tbh I’m getting slightly paranoid that their “we should kill that guy” about S&N after S&N claimed was actually about NK’ing and was meant for the scum chat, though there’s no way to prove this)

suspecting sunspear is nai imo since leetic's doing it, but it'd be cool if h&s would focus on someone else for now

end result: mmmmmeeeeeeeeehhhhhhh. i'd vote them but it'd be a non-committal vote. i feel better about it tho 'cause leetic also thinks they're weird

... wait, holy shit. one of the h&s heads were there for eod and they didn't vote for s&n. i'm confused y'all this didn't help lmao

fwiw, i went over eod again and i don't think i'm gonna vote for aflame for a while. they were like... actually pushing for a zms lynch, on top of being the first vote on the hydra. and they were talking a lot about maf strategy at d1 eod too, which i would assume is anti-maf/pro-town

 

[funnier6]

Vote Count

thesunspear- 1 (H&S)
Hydreigon & Shelgon- 3 (ddi, LatB, Aflame)
Aflame- 1 (sunspear)
Not Voting- 3 (RR, LW, MNH)

With 8 alive it takes 5 to reach majority. Otherwise day will end at 3 pm CDT on Tuesday the 30th. (In about 27 hours)

 

[Paul and the band]

WHAT'S UP FUNNIER

... ok

iso'd ddi

yeah you're absolutely right it's a sheep. i've got nothing new to bring to the table. tbh i've been sitting back and letting everyone else do the work. i think i expected my partner to post/be around more. i've also been a little busy and i got overwhelmed/frustrated at the deluge of one sentence posts.

tbh i'd be suspicious of myself too today. fingers crossed i'll have my head in the game by the time day 2 rolls around. i work better after flips.

this is still very very strange. it was about ddi's vote on zms day 1.

there was also a back and forth between ddi and rr where it looked like ddi was cognizant of efforts to save zms, but ddi didn't partake in it. for that reason, their zms vote is neither townie nor wolfy, imo

this is an interesting point, i haven't thought of this until you brought it up. i often tend to get suspicious and hesitant when no one fights against a wagon because it makes me think scum are sitting back and watching town lynch themselves. however i don't like that our slot didn't vote at all today and i wanted to place it somewhere. the ZMS wagon felt like the best place for me to be if i'm going to take a stance at all today (which of course i'd like to, i don't want us to have sat here and done nothing the entire day phase, that would look even worse.).

however i don't necessarily think nobody is fighting against ZMS. there's also the S&N wagon, which iirc isn't nearly as big ofc but it could very well be an attempt to save ZMS. (this could be wrong. i haven't read the backlog because there are 43 pages and i am a busy bee. but that is what i remember) also i think people are pushing for lone wolf. so i wouldn't necessarily say that nobody cares about the ZMS slot because people are definitely saying that ZMS is not the best choice for the day.

both heads seemed to find chillian suspicious; however, nothing was done about it, and last eod was fairly uneventful. a wolf /could/ do this, but the behavior's not wolfy. i didn't notice chillian playing utr though. was it a noticeable thing?

Chillian: I'll probably need to go back and reread their posts again soon but spontaneously not a whole lot comes to mind regarding this account. They've been able to pass under the radar pretty well, at least for me, and that's something scum would want to do. The one thing about them that I can think of off the top of my head is their vote on S&N yesterday. I'm guessing there were originally three Mafia accounts and I think it's likely one of the others joined ZMS on the S&N wagon. Leaning Scum.

to be 100% completely h with y'all, i just read through chillian's posts and i still cannot recall a single thing they said. there's a lot of "helpful" stuff like poking players and answering "who's from zd" type stuff, also earlier on is a lot of "i'm going to make a post tomorrow. chill i'm busy. guess what i'm still busy"

@Chillian you were around near EOD, and you kept your vote on S&N. can you explain what made you choose them over ZMS? i noticed your reasonings for voting S&N in post #746 but are you able to explain what made them more suspicious than ZMS?

imo this hydra played relatively cautiously: aside from the "yes i'm sheeping" comment, nothing pinged me as especially strange or town-like. i think the comments about rr are valid. i really wanna know what was up with rr's d1 eod.

currently at h&s -> ddi, prolly should look at rr cries

 

[Paul and the band]

rr's d1 looked real solid still so i don't wanna consider them rn lol

sunspear you should really make a case for not-h&s soon

also i'm done posting lol

i hate being town

 

[thesunspear]

You've seen people tunnel on me how often do they end up being wolves

 

[Paul and the band]

You've seen people tunnel on me how often do they end up being wolves

if this is moe, about as often as someone rolls wolf anyway lmao

 

[Restless_Ridge]

uh, since it's likely that sunspear is a wolf and it's not confirmed that the mafia have 3 members. We should probably lynch sunspear first? Since that (probably) guarantees the removal of a kill while H&S doesn't.

vote sunspear

 

[Paul and the band]

uh, since it's likely that sunspear is a wolf and it's not confirmed that the mafia have 3 members. We should probably lynch sunspear first? Since that (probably) guarantees the removal of a kill while H&S doesn't.

vote sunspear

How do you mean?

 

[Restless_Ridge]

I mean in general, wolves tend to be more powerful than mafia. So it always makes sense to remove a wolf when you can instead of maybe taking out the last mafia.

 

[thesunspear]

Oh lol
Smogon strikes again

 

[thesunspear]

The third party killing role already flipped and wolves are the same thing as mafia everywhere other than smogon

 

[Paul and the band]

i don't think that's the type of game we're playing here rr

 

[Aflame]

uh, since it's likely that sunspear is a wolf and it's not confirmed that the mafia have 3 members. We should probably lynch sunspear first? Since that (probably) guarantees the removal of a kill while H&S doesn't.

vote sunspear

Firstly, I don't think that's the kind of game this is (never heard of a Wolf faction in Mafia unless you're getting a role mixed up). Secondly, in a 13 man game, I think it's pretty safe to assume there's 3 Mafia considering on ZD, that was a common ratio. Granted, this is my first forum Mafia game in months, so who knows.

 

[Mafia Nursing Home]

These posts from Restless Ridge actually ease the slight worry I had over them lol.

Serious question to everyone though: Would it be worth just hammering H&S at this point? All but, like, 2 or 3 hydras seem to be in consensus that Hydreigon & Shelgon GX are the top lynch suspect. If so, I'd place my vote, especially since Aflame is a very distant 2nd place scum suspect and and ddi even farther from that for me.

 

[thesunspear]

I'm in favor of hammering, because these phases are going on 5ever
not in favor of hammering the wrong person