Mafia ZD X BMG 2019 Link’s Awakening Hydra Mafia Crossover Game Thread

[thesunspear]

Here's where things start looking bad for thesunspear. He decides to try and defend Chillian from my overall negative analysis of their interactions. Also of note is that this and the post analyzing him are the only two analyses he seemed to take issue with, when there were two more negative analyses and five others to look at if he thought my general style of posting is bad. He also just cherrypicks this one quote rather than look at the analysis as whole. Overall, not good.

I pointed it out because it was clear confirmation bias and I wanted you to admit it. You never did.

Already pointed out a contradiction in this part of the post, but after a read which he admitted was weak he criticizes Aflame for just nullreading Chillian. Just an overall weird reaction.

This is you not understanding history between me and Deku. I have already said he's a player I struggle to read.

Now, another post townreading DekuNut but still is noncommittal with the last two sentences. Why criticize Aflame for not taking a stance on the issue when you're barely making one yourself

Committing is exactly what I was doing there. I committed to the wrong read though :/

He says this with regards to my analysis about Chillian. It's mostly saying "confirmation bias" over and over again without providing specific arguments in hopes that it will discredit my attack on Chillian. It reads very similar to ZMS trying to discredit Aflame's read list that led to the former being lynched.

...because it was confirmation bias. If you believed they were town then you would say that specific interaction would look towny. You just won't admit it.

So, I attacked his sloppy argument to Chillian, including the aforementioned push for Aflame to take a stance on Chillian. His response? Ignore it of course!

it's only sloppy because you will refuse to acknowledge your own bias!

Conclusion: I think he said it best:

doesn't change the fact that we still shot chillian

I'm pretty sure on thesunspear being scum

I'm pretty sure you're wrong :^)

 

[Paul and the band]

I thought I already said how tired I was of "confirmation bias" being thrown around.

I pointed it out because it was clear confirmation bias and I wanted you to admit it. You never did.

I never admitted it because it wasn't confirmation bias. You know, just saying something is confirmation bias doesn't automatically make it confirmation bias.

This is you not understanding history between me and Deku. I have already said he's a player I struggle to read.

So? You don't have to be afraid of getting it wrong, like you seemingly were

Committing is exactly what I was doing there. I committed to the wrong read though :/

It's not committing when it's "well, he's town but this and that so I am not sure"

...because it was confirmation bias. If you believed they were town then you would say that specific interaction would look towny. You just won't admit it.

I don't think you understand how analysis works. I looked over their posts, and came to the conclusion that the interactions don't look good.

it's only sloppy because you will refuse to acknowledge your own bias!

"I made a bad argument trying to indict a user just because some unrelated user failed to say their analysis was biased!" Yeah, that makes sense

doesn't change the fact that we still shot chillian

How? You even admitted that you weren't the ones who killed him. Thus your claim will give you no town credit.

I'm pretty sure you're wrong :^)

Too bad.

 

[thesunspear]

Anyway, I'm pretty sure on thesunspear being scum, he essentially tried to save both known wolves and the night results are pretty damning as well.

I cannot convince you at this point, I don't think. I've given you why last night doesn't make sense if I'm mafia. (Chillian would perform the nightkill and its NOT wifom). I'll try one last time.
I'll even give you that I think that, overall, this slot has played poorly wrt reads. We've townread two dead wolves (impossible for me to prove our reversal onto Chillian, I know) and I understand the scumreads for that alone 100%. However
We are town. We've given you everything that is reasonable to give you about our role. We've claimed a role that mafia /want/ to kill. If we are scum, we are the last ones alive, and you agree with this. So, based on that alone, I don't think you should want to kill us today.

What the actual fuck are we doing if we're scum? We've noncommittally defended two wolves (or at least, I'm speaking solely for my half) when this is not how I play wolf. I HARD defend my partners. None of my reads on them are self admitted "bad reads." I would've been campaigning as much as I possibly could on killing anyone but them, and you don't see that.

We've claimed a role that forces us to continue to give out townie information, and while the role is not confirmable thus far, we can claim any all and future actions without occupying town's daily roleclaim. If we're scum, we've priced ourselves into helping town. If we're scum, we knew that Chillian was bulletproof, and claimed that we shot him as a fakeclaim. I'm honestly insulted if you think that lowly of Moe and I (mostly me). We thought we killed him, and I don't see how that feels like anything other than purely genuine. To clear up the world where you might think we killed chillian as our teammate or something, that's just straight up not possible based on how the game works. I would also never even consider doing this.

Last time I saw Moe as scum, he was doing the same. It was quite annoying.

If you think we are scum, you have to think that all three scum voted for S&N, and iirc you also have to think that we all three did this early (the dead scum were the first two votes) and held it there. That like... I don't think I've ever seen that happen in a game before, and I'd wager that I have more games played that all other players in this game combined. It doesn't make any sense. Scum cannot help but bus just as a natural state; it takes convincing and a lot of experience to show someone why busing your teammates is, on average, a bad idea. I doubt I could control my partners so. They would've been doing what they wanted and it just would've happened to align with what I would've wanted as a wolf.

I think that the game makes 0 sense if we're a wolf. I don't know how you don't see that. It just has to be a combination of Moe's jester-ness combined with the lack of a mafia kill last night (which, I admit, I cannot resolve. My best guess is that the mafia were AFK but that answer is sub-par I know). I never let the wagons get to that condition. I never would've killed a low-poster in Bok's Lovechild on n1 (since its basically confirmed that wolves killed Bok's Lovechild on n1). I've given you the world that I think exists in that we need to resolve the ZMS wagon, and I think we should start with aFlame, and that the interactions between Chillian and aflame do not look very good for aflame.

I know that none of this convinces you, Oricorio, most likely. I hope that it convinces some other people, at least.

 

[thesunspear]

vote: aflame

 

[thesunspear]

vote: aflame

sheeping the dead doc is probably a good thing to do

 

[Aflame]

Dinner kept me from posting, but it seems like leetic and sunspear are doing all the talking (slightly miffed about the one-line posts, but it's a very weak reason to suspect). I'm getting slightly suspicious of sunspear, but what bugs me is the lack of content from others, notably the one I mentioned who have yet to speak up today. It would seem to line up if the 3 Mafia were on the second-biggest wagon D1, yet I still want to hear more from @Lone_Wolf , @Restless_Ridge , and @dum dum idiots before voting. They've made some pretty good content on the previous days, so it's a bit strange not to hear from them.

vote: aflame

Uh, elaborate, pretty please?

 

[thesunspear]

Uh, elaborate, pretty please?

Your slot looked really bad after the T&H interactions for starters

 

[Aflame]

Your slot looked really bad after the T&H interactions for starters

Again, how so? What did you see from my head that made me look really bad?
(this is partly why I dislike one-liners since I don't like having to fill in the blanks.)

 

[Paul and the band]

I cannot convince you at this point, I don't think. I've given you why last night doesn't make sense if I'm mafia. (Chillian would perform the nightkill and its NOT wifom). I'll try one last time.
I'll even give you that I think that, overall, this slot has played poorly wrt reads. We've townread two dead wolves (impossible for me to prove our reversal onto Chillian, I know) and I understand the scumreads for that alone 100%. However
We are town. We've given you everything that is reasonable to give you about our role. We've claimed a role that mafia /want/ to kill. If we are scum, we are the last ones alive, and you agree with this. So, based on that alone, I don't think you should want to kill us today.

Is JOAT a role that mafia would want to kill, especially over a potential Cop, Watcher, etc? Plus it's a really easy fakeclaim.

What the actual fuck are we doing if we're scum? We've noncommittally defended two wolves (or at least, I'm speaking solely for my half) when this is not how I play wolf. I HARD defend my partners. None of my reads on them are self admitted "bad reads." I would've been campaigning as much as I possibly could on killing anyone but them, and you don't see that.

I'll link you to a case study here: Shockheaded Peter Mafia [ENDGAME] - Page 30 - The Syndicate

In that game, Jack was the last scum and needed a lynch outside the general POE to win. So he looked into some of one of his partner's scum games and built a meta argument that called for the lynch of colonialbob, a player that was considered very towny. It worked, and scum won. See why I don't trust self proclaimed "I would never do this as mafia"? It's WIFOM at best, manipulation at worst.

We've claimed a role that forces us to continue to give out townie information, and while the role is not confirmable thus far, we can claim any all and future actions without occupying town's daily roleclaim. If we're scum, we've priced ourselves into helping town. If we're scum, we knew that Chillian was bulletproof, and claimed that we shot him as a fakeclaim. I'm honestly insulted if you think that lowly of Moe and I (mostly me). We thought we killed him, and I don't see how that feels like anything other than purely genuine. To clear up the world where you might think we killed chillian as our teammate or something, that's just straight up not possible based on how the game works. I would also never even consider doing this.

Does it really give you information though? Both of the actions you claimed weren't information roles. Plus, appeal to emotion, and strawman fallacy (claiming I just think you're bad players when I've never said that).

Last time I saw Moe as scum, he was doing the same. It was quite annoying.

If you think we are scum, you have to think that all three scum voted for S&N, and iirc you also have to think that we all three did this early (the dead scum were the first two votes) and held it there. That like... I don't think I've ever seen that happen in a game before, and I'd wager that I have more games played that all other players in this game combined. It doesn't make any sense. Scum cannot help but bus just as a natural state; it takes convincing and a lot of experience to show someone why busing your teammates is, on average, a bad idea. I doubt I could control my partners so. They would've been doing what they wanted and it just would've happened to align with what I would've wanted as a wolf.

I mean, why would they not hold it there when the godfather is on the line? Plus, pure WIFOM

I think that the game makes 0 sense if we're a wolf. I don't know how you don't see that. It just has to be a combination of Moe's jester-ness combined with the lack of a mafia kill last night (which, I admit, I cannot resolve. My best guess is that the mafia were AFK but that answer is sub-par I know). I never let the wagons get to that condition. I never would've killed a low-poster in Bok's Lovechild on n1 (since its basically confirmed that wolves killed Bok's Lovechild on n1). I've given you the world that I think exists in that we need to resolve the ZMS wagon, and I think we should start with aFlame, and that the interactions between Chillian and aflame do not look very good for aflame.

I've looked into the interactions extensively, and I think there are only two players that really look like they could be the third wolf: you and H&S. The POE is so thinned at this point. Elaborate on Aflame, I didn't really see much wrong with that slot in terms of interactions.

I know that none of this convinces you, Oricorio, most likely. I hope that it convinces some other people, at least.

Not on my watch.

 

[Paul and the band]

Your slot looked really bad after the T&H interactions for starters

I mean, your slot doesn't look too much better in that regard, you needed a lot of prodding to defend them despite supposedly townreading them

 

[thesunspear]

I've never implied you thought we were bad; its more just how I word things. I'm not straw-manning, though I have to admit I only kinda sorta am familiar with the term.

This is something that I think you can improve on (and this is true of a lot of people; I'm not singling just you out; I think this is like, the way to the mountaintop potentially)

Its not WIFOM sometimes. Its just the truth. It was something I felt like I had to say, even though I felt like you would dismiss it in the same way. I wouldn't kill Bok's Lovechild there. Everyone in town is a role. I would 100% start at the top posters and work down.

Now, the gut reaction to that is to discard it, yeah? But here's why you shouldn't. In this theoretical scumchat, its Moe, Deku, Deku's partner that I don't remember the name of, and myself. If you think Moe and I don't get the nightkill we want, I think you're just wrong about it.

So, the counter becomes what if I have a roleread on Bok's Lovechild's slot. I don't care about that. Everyone in town is a role; its impossible not to hit scum. So I would just kill someone who is posting a lot and probably would be tough to deal with going forward, and not Bok's Lovechild, who had negative 18 posts in the first phase or something.

So the WIFOM argument falls apart.

 

[Paul and the band]

I've never implied you thought we were bad; its more just how I word things. I'm not straw-manning, though I have to admit I only kinda sorta am familiar with the term.

This is something that I think you can improve on (and this is true of a lot of people; I'm not singling just you out; I think this is like, the way to the mountaintop potentially)

Its not WIFOM sometimes. Its just the truth. It was something I felt like I had to say, even though I felt like you would dismiss it in the same way. I wouldn't kill Bok's Lovechild there. Everyone in town is a role. I would 100% start at the top posters and work down.

Now, the gut reaction to that is to discard it, yeah? But here's why you shouldn't. In this theoretical scumchat, its Moe, Deku, Deku's partner that I don't remember the name of, and myself. If you think Moe and I don't get the nightkill we want, I think you're just wrong about it.

So, the counter becomes what if I have a roleread on Bok's Lovechild's slot. I don't care about that. Everyone in town is a role; its impossible not to hit scum. So I would just kill someone who is posting a lot and probably would be tough to deal with going forward, and not Bok's Lovechild, who had negative 18 posts in the first phase or something.

So the WIFOM argument falls apart.

"WIFOM is the dilemma that arises from trying to predict whether someone has made an optimal but expected choice, or a suboptimal but unexpected one." - WIFOM - MafiaWiki

So yes, all of that is WIFOM.

 

[Greymon]

Oh shit, yeah I am doc lol

YOU WERE WHAT!? You couldn't have informed us of this a bit earlier maybe? Maybe early enough to keep you alive?

We know that we lynched our Doctor before the previous Night, and one (scum-aligned) Bulletproof was killed that Night, alongside no other deaths. So what happened to the Mafia’s nightkill? Is another form of kill protection for the Town, perhaps limited shot, out there? Because if Sunspear told the truth in their claim, they have a power that qualifies as that and it wasn’t used. Could the Mafia NK have gotten redirected/deflected onto Chillian somehow, and hit them in conjunction with Sunspear’s alleged Vig shot? It seems like that would be a pretty big coincidence. I mean, what if the Mafia could’ve intentionally chosen to kill their own member Chillian just to set up Sunspear as the JOAT/Vig claim and get Town cred? That...sounds tinfoily and stupid, doesn’t it? Or maybe the Mafia neglected to submit a kill at all. Sunspear’s claim really raises a lot of questions as to what the everliving heck is going on.

You're right, that does sound tinfoily and stupid. This isn't ME we're talking about here. I doubt they'd shoot themselves N2 after they'd already lost a player, just to set up a claim from sunspear that's raised a fuckton of "how the fuck did this happen?" questions.

Night 1 the following things happened: Chillian uses factional nightkill on Bok's Lovechild, the Shopkeeper (third party). Bok's Lovechild is a Serial Killer and they killed S&N (this part is the shakiest so far). The other part (important part) of Bok's Lovechild's role is this: When they are visited at night, the person visiting them gets branded THIEF and dies at a later point. This is how Chillian died tonight. Not a double up on the bulletproof, in fact, we pretty likely were roleblocked tonight. This still doesn't explain where the nightkill went though.
Mechanically, it looks like us, but we know this isn't true.
Second most likely (and I'm saying this generously as it is not likely at all) is a bus driver, one who targeted both Chillian and us (presumably in an attempt to funnel kills and investigates onto us) and thus LATB unwittingly blocked the mafia making the nightkill. If there is a bus driver in the game (IE confbiasing here) it makes sense for them to target Chillian as they are likely aware that the slot is a dead man walking and if they get tracked may gain town cred for visiting a dead wolf (I know, it's a stretch).
Other (equally unlikely) options include both Chillian and the final wolf being inactive, or the nightkill going to a commuter slot
only real problem is that nobody else can claim today

This... Makes a certain amount of sense. I've never heard of an Electric Killer before, so if they work like a delayed PGO it'd make sense as to how they got past the bulletproof.

the status of players who have yet to post today (Lone_Wolf, dum dum idiots, and Restless Ridge)? Where you guys at?

Sleeping. Not everyone can be awake and posting at 5:30AM my time, you know. No excuse for Darth though.

nope joat has never been and never will be a scum role, it is always 100% town aligned

Completely untrue. It can go either way roughly as frequently.

Chillian would perform the nightkill and its NOT wifom

It's totally WIFOM

I still want to hear more from @Lone_Wolf ,

Again, sleeping, and then reading. I think Darth's sleeping at this point too. It's 72 hours day phases, give us some time, geez.

At the moment, I want to think sunspear is Town. I'm not liking the WIFOM defences (and I'm sorry sunspear, but they are), but I'm feeling Town from them. Largely this is springing from D2, which honestly felt like a legit Town frustration meltdown. They weren't even getting upset about people scumreading them or anything, they were upset about people reading the game in a way they didn't agree with, which doesn't feel scum.

At this point I'm thinking either S&HGX or RR are good places to look, I'll try and pull something together on them later.

I can't promise a bunch more 'cause I've got like, an hour and a half until I'm leavin' to go watch Endgame and that'll keep me away for quite a while.

 

[thesunspear]

Its not a decision; its just how I have played consistently for years. I don't zag with people that don't know me. I know why you reject it, but its how you get better; realizing what is reasonably and what is unreasonable

the bok's lovechild kill on n1 is unreasonable (and if scum killed S&N n1, which doesn't look like what happened, then that's just even more unreasonable). Its not how I would play. I know there are always cases where someone like jackofhearts pulls something out of their butt and it works, but that's incredibly infrequent and it works because it is such a large departure BUT

if you make those plays often, you get known for it.

A counter case study I can provide you is a game on flashflashrevolution.com where the scumteam of three decided to nightkill one of their own members in a C9++ to give credence to a fakeclaim of the scumteam. This fell apart later because the team of three, in short, was comprised of three players who are all rather off-the-wall players. The play failed because players like myself and other towns considered that they would make that kind of crazy play, therefore, it failed.

You can't just keep dismissing every single bit of WIFOM as something that you cannot figure out. There's a lot more information there than I think most people realize.

 

[Paul and the band]

So, the counter becomes what if I have a roleread on Bok's Lovechild's slot. I don't care about that. Everyone in town is a role; its impossible not to hit scum. So I would just kill someone who is posting a lot and probably would be tough to deal with going forward, and not Bok's Lovechild, who had negative 18 posts in the first phase or something.

Another case study: USM Ubers Mafia. Ultra Necrozma's Uprising (Mafia Chat) - QuickTopic free message board hosting Mafia: - USM Ubers Mafia endgame (Town and Genesect victory)

Now, keep in mind JJJ is a great mafia player, he even made it to finals one year in the championship. Who did he decide to nightkill first? Not an active poster like Sloonei, but Calvin, a very low poster. He didn't want to be caught by a potential Tracker/Watcher, so he went with unpredictable kill options. I see no reason to assume the same couldn't be happening here.

 

[thesunspear]

I don't see how that avoids a tracker, and for avoiding a watcher, that only delays the inevitable, and I would consider that to be a bad play to make a -EV kill solely because of the fear of a watcher. For the watcher, yeah, it kidna sucks, but lets say that scum want to do that.

Why not kill someone with mroe posts, who isn't anyone's top town? It still falls apart.

 

[Paul and the band]

I don't see how that avoids a tracker, and for avoiding a watcher, that only delays the inevitable, and I would consider that to be a bad play to make a -EV kill solely because of the fear of a watcher. For the watcher, yeah, it kidna sucks, but lets say that scum want to do that.

Why not kill someone with mroe posts, who isn't anyone's top town? It still falls apart.

Well, nobody suspected JJJ in that game. Such a move implies a scum that's comfortable in their position, which definitely fits you at N1. Besides, as I said before, WIFOM.

 

[thesunspear]

Well, nobody suspected JJJ in that game. Such a move implies a scum that's comfortable in their position, which definitely fits you at N1. Besides, as I said before, WIFOM.

his win% cannot be higher by eliminating a low poster compared to a high poster. its an extremely conservative play, sure, but the reason he was not suspected was not because he wasn't watched, but because he was posting well, its reasonable to assume that much, at least.

 

[Paul and the band]

Look, if you want me off your back, then actually engage with the arguments I have presented. Your slot's constant insistence that I have "confirmation bias" doesn't make me civ read you, to say the least

 

[Mafia Nursing Home]

Aflame I could see by PoE and since I do think it is more likely that not all three scum were on the S&N wagon together, but I think that Hydreigon & Shelgon GX looks worse overall as a slot with the extreme tunneling on D1 that could very easily have been a way to get a vote out that wasn't going to be traceable yet (I really don't see a scenario in which sunspear was ever going to be lynched D1, and it wasn't like H&S made a compelling case for it), the lack of engaging with the actual pressing wagons at the time, that in the last two day phases they seem to quickly jump to wagons presented by other players (T&H last phase, and now sunspear), they tend to disappear in-thread for large stretches after voting, etc.

I'm still trying to digest the sunspear situation, but I (the FinalArcadia head, I dunno about my other head's thoughts on this yet) am actually willing to believe that the theory with Bok's Love Child killing Chillian makes sense, and I don't know why scum would bring that up when it would hurt their case about shooting Chillian. I don't think that leetic and the band is lying about their actions either, though, and I'd be pretty shocked if they weren't town.

Do Zelda Dungeon games typically inform a player if they are roleblocked or not? The one downside of ZMS dying D1 is that we may not have anyone who was roleblocked to be able to confirm if they got notified of being roleblocked