Mafia Lord of the Rings Mafia -- August 31st -- Endgame -- Mafia Victory!

[Doctor Floptopus]

Re: Lord of the Rings Mafia -- August 2nd -- Day 3 -- To Isengard!

Confirming my role!
I'm new to bulbagarden mafia but not mafia in general. I have been following the thread so I'm updated. And so, with that, I'm going to
vote beck
He seems the more suspicious out of him and forgotten. Basically, my reasons are the same as most of the rest of you.
Edit: by the way, please don't be suspicious if I am inactive at some times. I go by British time at the moment.

 

[Life]

Re: Lord of the Rings Mafia -- August 2nd -- Day 3 -- To Isengard!

o/t, Welcome to the game, Flipgbh.

I'm still wondering why we aren't giving the two Strongman idea a chance. Forgotten said that his role is basically a Vanilla, but if someone were to role-check him he would come up as a Strongman. Is it not a possibility that Beck's role could be a Strongman but would also come up as something else? Knowing how elaborate this game is, I would not be surprised.

While I was initially trustworthy of Beck's claim, I am uncertain with Forgotten's reveal. I can only think of two reason why Forgotten would claim the same as Beck. A, Forgotten is trying to frame Beck, or B, Forgotten is telling the truth. However, I don't really understand why Forgotten would try to frame Beck and draw a lot of attention towards himself/herself (idk which one you prefer to go by). This makes me more inclined to believe reason B.

So this means we either have two townies, or one townie and one scum on our hands. My fear though is that we'll end up lynching a townie and decide to lynch the other in the next phase, who'll also flip town. I'm going to hold my vote for the time being and wait until for GM to maybe help us out a bit. For now,

FoS: Beck

Why did we skip one day and one night phase?!? Is no one else concerned about this? Does anyone have any information about this at all?

I was wondering myself, but I held off asking in case I was just missing something. Phoenicks, can you tell us anything, or is this something we have to figure out?

 

[Doctor Floptopus]

Re: Lord of the Rings Mafia -- August 2nd -- Day 3 -- To Isengard!

Why was Gliscorman targeted for the night kill? We have a great opportunity here: we can actually ask the dead why he thinks he might have been a target. Who was he talking to before he died?

Agreed. @GliscorMan; why do you think you were killed?

 

[Psycho Pacifist]

Re: Lord of the Rings Mafia -- August 2nd -- Day 3 -- To Isengard!

I thought it was simply a mistake honestly. But considering it's still up I assume there's something to it.
The two dead didn't have any ability that had a day skip affect, and I see no reason anyone would use it now.

 

[GliscorMan]

Re: Lord of the Rings Mafia -- August 2nd -- Day 3 -- To Isengard!

Hey, guys! I'm still alive for now, so I'd appreciate it if you'd all just settle down a bit. Let's not make a rash decision, we have no need to be hasty. Let's gather our information first, and then make an educated decision, yeah?

There's nothing in the rules against mass claiming. So I suggest that, upon reading this post, everyone claim some sort of role to me. I don't think we have to worry about a Spy, and a Converter using his ability on me would be downright useless because tomorrow night I die upon the update, so they wouldn't get any information that way. Basically, there's no reason for you to not claim to me. No excuses.

Several of you have already contacted me, and I appreciate that. I'll be in touch with you shortly, and with everyone else who sends me stuff.

Also, I can still vote. So there's that.

For the record, I have no freaking clue why I was nightkilled, and chalk it up to my recent promotion to "killfodder". I do still want to do some info gathering before I make a final say on this, though.

I'll be back to make an attack when I get more information. Isengard will fall.

 

[CrackFox]

Re: Lord of the Rings Mafia -- August 2nd -- Day 3 -- To Isengard!

For now

Vote: Forgotten

I've already pointed out that I highly doubt Beck would fakeclaim out of nowhere and risk everything. Forgotten counterclaiming is also pretty odd and makes very little sense but when you think about it, that would be a good reason to do it, because it's so random and risky, people would be inclined to think that Forgotten just wouldn't risk it. I could maybe see some eccentric mafia buddies putting him up to it. Not to FoS but I could see someone like Mijzelffan encouraging that, if only to make the game more exciting. The fact that he instantly took Forgotten's side makes me wonder too.

Of course, there's still the possibilities that both are telling the truth and have similar roles. This game is probably highly complex and this whole night/day skip only confirms that. I'm voting Forgotten for now but i'm not ruling out the possibilities that both are being honest. I definitely think the idea of contacting GliscorMan is a great one and will help us a lot.

 

[Hippowdon]

Re: Lord of the Rings Mafia -- August 2nd -- Day 3 -- To Isengard!

Unvote: Hippowdon
Vote:Forgotten
I don't exactly trust beck but Im more convinced forgotten is mafia now than ever. Why would forgotten counter claim a bad role? So he doesnt have to claim a more difficult to fake role in pm with GM its like him killing two birds with one stone he does not have the need to claim to GM anymore now that he is the "strongman" and beck is giving more reluctance from his claim possibly mislynching him off earlier makeing it easy for the mafia to clean up the stronger players and most of you are playing into his hands by thinking he can't be mafia because that is the dumbest move possible for a mafia ever! He also seemed to gain more trust from such a bold move as counter claiming a bad role.

 

[Psycho Pacifist]

Re: Lord of the Rings Mafia -- August 2nd -- Day 3 -- To Isengard!

I claimed before Paperhorse even brought up the idea of mass claiming to Gliscorman.

And do you think my claim would've been better if it were private to Gliscor? At the point I claimed I didn't really trust anyone, and I assumed no one really trusted me even though for some reason no one gave reads on me.

 

[Leggo]

Re: Lord of the Rings Mafia -- August 2nd -- Day 3 -- To Isengard!

Spoiler'd because this post is big.

Spoiler

Also, why did we skip one day and one night?

If you read Phoenicks' post #263, GM being NK'd lead to a full day and night phase skip.

---

His claim is fake. I am Town Strongman.

At the moment Beck is much more trusted than me from what I've gathered, and this will most likely result in a lynch on myself. But when my role is revealed it will prove Beck is lying, and thus most likely mafia.

But I wouldn't have claimed prematurely, trust me.

Telling us to trust you won't make us trust you

Indeed. Trust is a risky card to play in mafia since taking advantage of it, mafia can easily manipulate one's reasoning and in turn, making one turn a blind eye on the possibility that their chum could possibly be mafia.

I did say maybe. If that is true well sorry to you Beck, would've been a great plan. But what did you want me to do, let Beck fly under the radar as a trusted townie until I was lynched?

Forgotten acknowledges the same thing as well. Including the fact that we don't know if Beck might backstab us with that ability that he claims to have and won't reveal.

We also have to take in consideration of what Midorikawa has said about the risks for town if we let Beck live.

In Beck's case however its a good opportunity, and he claimed more to his role, which could easily be a mafia vig kill. In other words, his is the more riskier role to be alive. Even if he's town, it could easily hit town and hurt them.

Forgotten claiming makes no sense, and I doubt his mafia buddies would have him do it either. This early in the game losing mafia members is extremely detrimental.

I don't see why forgotten would fakely counterclaim such a useless role unless they're speaking the truth. Say Forgotten is mafia, there's just no point in counterclaiming what's practically a miller. At best you kill one of the most useless roles in the game and die right after, at worst you get lynched and the miller gets confirmed innocent. Forgotten is most likely speaking the truth.

Taking in these two accounts into consideration. I believe that Forgotten is telling the truth as well and is town because if mafia, Forgotten would be taking a huge risk by counterclaiming and bringing attention which mafia usually don't do as they tend to keep a low profile.

I acknowledge this point as well since Beck is risking as much as Forgotten is which means we are playing a big gamble here.

It's not a plan, it's the honest truth. If I were Mafia, I wouldn't have drawn this much attention to myself.

Life and CrackFox makes a good point with this, so I wouldn't be surprised as well with the possibility of two Strongmen.

I'm still wondering why we aren't giving the two Strongman idea a chance. Forgotten said that his role is basically a Vanilla, but if someone were to role-check him he would come up as a Strongman. Is it not a possibility that Beck's role could be a Strongman but would also come up as something else? Knowing how elaborate this game is, I would not be surprised.

Of course, there's still the possibilities that both are telling the truth and have similar roles. This game is probably highly complex and this whole night/day skip only confirms that.

So the possibilities are:

• Forgotten is mafia and is risking it all by counterclaiming Beck.
• Beck is mafia and is taking a risk by putting the trust card in play.
• They could both be telling the truth and Phoenicks is making us pick our brains with the complex mechanisms of this game (I feel it could be this).
• Forgotten and Beck could be scum buddies risking it all (but I feel this is unlikely).

However, Beck rubs me the wrong way with this since it makes me feel that Beck wants Forgotten to be out which in turn gives me a mafia vibe and Forgotten a town vibe.

You're lying. I don't have the slightest clue why you would claim if you're Mafia, which makes me want to believe you, but I can't believe that there are two Town Strongmans. One of us has to go, and it won't be me.

So I feel inclined to do this.
Unvote: Leggo
Vote: Beck

 

[Master Mew]

Re: Lord of the Rings Mafia -- August 2nd -- Day 3 -- To Isengard!

Terribly sorry for my tardiness; as I said Wednesday, I was without internet access (or literally any spare time) for 25 of the last 29 hours (and that's only if you believe, as I do, that sleep is optional). :sweatlol:

Anyway, my thoughts on recent events:

---

A.) Day 1 -> Day 3

I have no idea what happened here, but Paperhorse asked if she was the only person who was confused about this so to that I proffer a resounding "No."

B.) GliscorMan

Seriously, anyone who hasn't been in contact with GliscorMan since he flipped needs to be. The OP assures us our host won't lie to us, so getting in contact with our only living confirmed Townie seems prudent if you weren't already.

C.) Paperhorse

Paperhorse today is Day 1's CrackFox_2.0 - i.e., she's getting jumped over something completely innocuous. She did exactly what I would have done if I'd been online at the time.

D.) Beck vs Forgotten

And this is looking more and more like it's going to be the question that defines the day, isn't it? The way I see it, there really only three options:

1. They're both telling the truth.
   • Is it possible?
     • Yes. Soulmaster's role was so dubious that I wouldn't have believed it if the host hadn't confirmed it. Two MORE such roles in the game? These two claims are so outrageous they almost have to be true - why would you make this stuff up?
2. Beck is lying.
   • Is it possible?
     • Maybe, but only if Beck somehow knew Forgotten's role (or knew of yet another similar role, I suppose) and preemptively claimed to force a Townie to counterclaim their own role. Beck wasn't in a tight spot, if he's scum fakeclaiming some inside information must have prompted it.
3. Forgotten is lying.
   • Is it possible?
     • Maybe, but only if Forgotten either severely overestimated how much suspicion she had accrued and thought she had nothing to lose or if something behind the scenes convinced her she wouldn't be able to hide much longer. Otherwise, why would Scum want to go 1v1 with a counterclaim on Day 2?

I was townreading both of them so, maybe that has biased my conclusions, but I'm inclined to believe they're both telling the truth. At least for now.

To my chagrin, I have no idea who to vote for right now, since I really dislike both of the main wagons (and the undercurrents of suspicion on Paperhorse are misinformed).

@Phoenicks I know it's way early to be talking about extensions, but I'd like to go ahead and go on record as saying I'd appreciate an extended Day Phase today. There's a lot of sleuthing going on behind the scenes right now and I'd appreciate the extra time for us to organize our thoughts. (If that's not an acceptable reason for an extension, understood)

 

[Doctor Floptopus]

Re: Lord of the Rings Mafia -- August 2nd -- Day 3 -- To Isengard!

I don't know... To me this isn't just about beck vs forgotten. If one of them is lynched and flips mafia, then those who were devoutly defending them may be their partners in crime. If one of them is lynched and flips townie, I would rather not jump to conclusions but leave the townie rolecop (if there is one) to investigate the other and see if the possibility of two similar roles has been used. However, due to the difference in their claims, I think beck is more of a danger to kill, and because of that I am going to
Unvote: Beck
Vote: Forgotten

 

[Hippowdon]

Re: Lord of the Rings Mafia -- August 2nd -- Day 3 -- To Isengard!

I claimed before Paperhorse even brought up the idea of mass claiming to Gliscorman.

And do you think my claim would've been better if it were private to Gliscor? At the point I claimed I didn't really trust anyone, and I assumed no one really trusted me even though for some reason no one gave reads on me.

Forgotten I'm not buying this "I don't trust anyone" when a confirmed townie is someone you should have full faith in if you are in fact town. GM was revealed to be a town treestump at post #263 (you claimed post #272) also you only counter claimed beck after GM was a proven town you didn't have to role claim in thread to get a lynch on beck for faking private messaging GM would have been a safer route. And I didn't need paperhorse suggesting a mass claim when in GM's own role pm it said mass claiming it also never said anything against it almost Implying we mass claim to him.

 

[Psycho Pacifist]

Re: Lord of the Rings Mafia -- August 2nd -- Day 3 -- To Isengard!

@Zenax ; @Rabbit ;

Both of you said you were coming back to the game today. I'd like your opinions. Whether Beck or I get lynched it is good to see who everyone sides with.

Also I worded my last post very poorly I will say.

 

[Neonsands]

Re: Lord of the Rings Mafia -- August 2nd -- Day 3 -- To Isengard!

Why did we skip one day and one night phase?!? Is no one else concerned about this? Does anyone have any information about this at all?

I was wondering myself, but I held off asking in case I was just missing something. Phoenicks, can you tell us anything, or is this something we have to figure out?

What do you mean figure out? That was Treebeard's role. It says it explicitly in the phase change.

 

[Life]

Re: Lord of the Rings Mafia -- August 2nd -- Day 3 -- To Isengard!

What do you mean figure out? That was Treebeard's role. It says it explicitly in the phase change.

I must be blind than, because I've read it three times and still can't see where it specifies it. I take your word for it, though.

 

[GliscorMan]

Re: Lord of the Rings Mafia -- August 2nd -- Day 3 -- To Isengard!

I don't understand why people are talking about the Day phase jump. My role PM specifically states that I won't be dead until that long, and not that the phases themselves jump, so I assume that it was a mistake on Nick's part.

Anyways, we should probably be focusing on Beck and Forgotten here. I can pretty much guarantee that one of them's lying. I have a hunch that it's Beck, it makes more sense, but I don't have anything solid yet.

 

[Beck]

Re: Lord of the Rings Mafia -- August 2nd -- Day 3 -- To Isengard!

I'm starting to believe that Forgotten is telling the truth, for the reasons Mew has stated. I won't remove my vote just yet, but I'm more and more considering the possibility that we're both Town. I would like to hear from you, @GliscorMan;, regarding the landscape of the roles in this game. Is it likely that there are two almost identical roles? I am not lying about my role, and I can't imagine that Forgotten is either. But he must be. I'm extremely conflicted. If there's room for both, I'm willing to consider us both being innocent.

 

[Crystal Onix]

Re: Lord of the Rings Mafia -- August 2nd -- Day 3 -- To Isengard!

Yeah, before, I thought nothing of Beck claiming to be able to do 2 things because I thought I could, too, but I've just had my role clarified by Phoenicks himself. Turns out I can only do one thing, same as Soulmaster, GliscorMan, and, if we're to believe her, Forgotten. This makes Beck's claim of doing 2 things more suspicious to me.

 

[Midorikawa]

Re: Lord of the Rings Mafia -- August 2nd -- Day 3 -- To Isengard!

I don't exactly trust beck but Im more convinced forgotten is mafia now than ever. Why would forgotten counter claim a bad role?

So that the person he believes is scum doesn't get away with it. If Beck is mafia then we most likely would have let him go along if Forgotten hadn't claimed.

So he doesnt have to claim a more difficult to fake role in pm with GM its like him killing two birds with one stone he does not have the need to claim to GM anymore now that he is the "strongman" and beck is giving more reluctance from his claim possibly mislynching him off earlier makeing it easy for the mafia to clean up the stronger players and most of you are playing into his hands by thinking he can't be mafia because that is the dumbest move possible for a mafia ever! He also seemed to gain more trust from such a bold move as counter claiming a bad role.

This is confusing, however part of it sticks out. It would be the dumbest of moves for mafia to waste one of their members to try to get rid of one strong player when the game is full of them. This game has a lot of veteran players in it, well did though some subbed out. Still point is its full of active scumhunters like human and me for example and veteran players like paperhorse and master mew. It would be detrimental for mafia to do it and most likely screw them over in the end. Beck's time of claiming however would help them due to the revealing of soulmasters role.

As for claiming in privately to GM, its much less riskier and safer as all he has to do if mafia is come up with a role just creative enough to get by or even just claim vanilla because there are most likely multiple vanilla or vanilla like roles.

And honestly after looking over my own role, and with Soulmasters role implying a town rolecop, I'm inclined to believe that one of them is lying, and Beck just seems more likely mafia, not to mention his attitude as Life pointed out.

 

[GliscorMan]

Re: Lord of the Rings Mafia -- August 2nd -- Day 3 -- To Isengard!

@Midorikawa; I'd say that your arguments are great, but there's some pretty Ent-sized holes in your logic.

For starters, the fact that one of them might sacrifice themselves to take down a good scumhunter implies that there aren't any of these veterans on the Mafia side.

Secondly, I'm going to ask you a question. Why would anyone fake-claim in a game that has a rolecop pretty much confirmed? It would be suicide if they were found to be lying.

I do agree that Beck is more likely to be Mafia, and that he just didn't anticipate someone counterclaiming.