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Mafia The War Room Awards '18 Mafia: Endgame

Reader mode
We have enough time and Today was spent well

THE SITUATION

The 'Cop' of this game (and one of two investigative roleclaims that I have received) is a Ninja Cop, [Detects Factions, and is not detected on visits]. They have given me results:

  • jdthebud = town
  • Arthas Menethil = mafia

This game being bastard means that there is definitely a chance in which the cop is paranoid. If the cop is not a cop, thenthis game's investigation roles are practically zero, with all the chaos that exists.

I'll turn it to the thread; who do we lynch today?
 
And before anything is stated; I've posted some orders to accommodate for the opposite flip of whomever we lynch already.

@Arthas Menethil
@jdthebud

React

@MegaPod
@Max1996
@Pika_pika42
@Jinjo
@Klavier Gavin
@Magnificent Entertainer
@Officer Snake
@Pikochu
@Ereshkigal

AE flipping town implies that Ereshkigal would thus be Mafia, wouldn't it? I'd buy it. AE flipping scum, doesn't do much for Ereshkigal either way. You've all seen AE's reaction; now it's time to consider the entirely legitimate possibility that JD (who should out their N2 action and result) is mafia by way of scan result modifications.
 
Elieson said:
I wonder though; if your role failed because I was dead by the time your action would've processed, and you got rando'd a different role? IDK. I have literally _no_ idea how somebody could mess with your role in any other way outside of a role specifically dedicated towards that
Click to expand...
I wish I knew. Darthwolf has dodged that question three times... so I suspect something legit went on that he can't talk to me about.

Unvote in the hopes of actually scum hunting.
Elieson said:
AE flipping town implies that Ereshkigal would thus be Mafia, wouldn't it? I'd buy it
Click to expand...
Depends on if JD has a point about self targeting still counting as targeting.

Remember that Eresh's post didn't say visited. It say targeted. And it was that sentence that I was told was a lie.

I have no experience with Eresh to know how they react to pressure (That and meta is a bad defense anyway)

Elieson said:
  • jdthebud = town
  • Arthas Menethil = mafia
Click to expand...

This game is definitely bastard, so I'd give serious consideration to those two results being flipped.

Also might be worth considering if my result was flipped.

Also, Darthwolf, if all investigation roles in this game are flipped, I'll cover everything you own in burger sauce... :p
 
Arthas Menethil said:
@DarthWolf feel free to hammer and put the town out of it’s misery.
Click to expand...
I will not do this for multiple reasons.
1. There is no Hyper Majority rule to be able to do that
2. That can ruin my update times, which is a big reason why hsots dont like HM
3. I'm not giving up time for people to discuss things before nightfall
 
DarthWolf said:
I will not do this for multiple reasons.
1. There is no Hyper Majority rule to be able to do that
2. That can ruin my update times, which is a big reason why hsots dont like HM
3. I'm not giving up time for people to discuss things before nightfall
Click to expand...
4. You enjoy torturing me.

Admit it. You know it's true!
 
@Elieson Well I'm town, so the cop isn't insane. Also why would I help defend AM when I could just go along with the mislynch if I'm mafia and know AM is an easy mislynch? I'd look more into those who went along without much comment or who were "following orders".

If AM is town, then somebody screwed with the cop's results that night somehow.

Also, as for my claim:
wps pqtfqps tfb mtfbq hmpt ejpgk wgtf ulilmwl petgmls ymu tfmudft ymu fpa gc sm tfbl fb wps kgstpibl wfgef g fmnb jblas kmqb eqbableb tm ky ejpgk sgleb gt wmuja rb nqbtty tbqqgrjb qmjb cmq kpcgp tm fpvb p hmpt wgtf ulilmwl petgmls

Can someone remind me what the case for Eresh being scum if AM flips town is?
 
Alright, I have assessed the different outcomes of lynching our top three candidates, and this is my analysis of what could come of each.

jdthebud - Scanned Town by Cop. Is either Town, Godfather, or non-Godfather scum in case of insane cop. This means lynching him ends in any one of these three scenarios:
  1. We lose a Townie, but we then know that the Cop is probably sane and that we should again consider lynching Arthas. This makes Ereshkigal look better.
  2. We nail the Godfather, which also means the Cop is probably sane and that Arthas is likely jd’s scumbuddy. This would be pretty cool. Also makes Eresh look better by extension.
  3. We catch scum and determine that the Cop is probably insane, which also practically clears Arthas and leaves Ereshkigal still a viable suspect.
Potential payoffs?
Caught scum range: 1-2
Cleared Town range: 1

Arthas Menethil - Scanned Mafia by Cop, claimed chosen Lie Detector. Actually such a convoluted claim that it’s a stretch he entirely made it up, though he could technically be scum with a similar role mechanic, who knows? Anyways, he’s either scum, or Town with an Insane check on him. With a Miller flip and a claim that involves a second *potential* Miller, I doubt a hidden Miller modifier is in play here. The scenarios:
  1. We catch scum (yay!) and learn that the Cop is probably sane; jdthebud could be the Godfather but is less likely to be scum. This would also practically clear Ereshkigal.
  2. We lose a Townie, but learn that the Cop is probably Insane and that we should lynch jd. Leave’s Ereshkigal’s alignment in question.
Potential payoffs?
Caught scum range: 1
Cleared Town range: 0-1.5

Ereshkigal - caught lying about not targeting someone Night 1 and has generally acted fishy imo; however, Lie Detector result may be insufficient evidence due to a technicality. Not checked by Cop. Scenarios:
  1. We lynch scum, which would imply that Arthas is actually Town and that the Cop is likely Insane. Jd then looks like a great next lynch.
  2. Ereshkigal flips Town, which proves nothing about the other two candidates or the Cop’s sanity.
Potential payoffs?
Caught scum range: 0-2
Cleared Town range: 0-1

...huh. I managed to convince myself that we should try lynching jdthebud when I was more concerned about the other two candidates all day. Either he’s actually Mafia, or his flipping Town will help us confirm what direction to take the next Day phase. Anyone on board with this plan is welcome to join me.

Unvote: Arthas Menethil
Vote: jdthebud
 
MegaPod said:
Ereshkigal - caught lying about not targeting someone Night 1 and has generally acted fishy imo; however, Lie Detector result may be insufficient evidence due to a technicality. Not checked by Cop. Scenarios:
Click to expand...
On the subject of said technicality... Darthwolf was very careful when answering this question, but he basically said self targeted stuff like Doctor would count as targeted... but passive wouldn't,

Which means that, according to my result, Ereshkigal has more than just a passive ability and 1x cop, and he used it night 1.
 
Unvote: Arthas Menethil
Vote: jdthebud

I have my own suspicions about what happened, but I'll wait until we get results first. Because it's probably just me being overly paranoid. My paranoia has hurt town in past games, so I'm keeping tight reins on it.
 
I have theories on what happened but I’m dead so I can’t say :p

Also which of mine and Zexy’s meta conversations you guys quoting because we have lots. :)

Back to watching you guys talk in gibberish while I listen to Gibberish.
 
This thread has too many ghosts.

*makes a phone call*

Ghostbusters-Bill-Murray-Dan-Aykroyd-Harold-Ramis-Ernie-Hudson.jpg
 
Also Will the SK just claim to me? I've offered a shared victory already!

MegaPod said:
Elieson, do you mean the Cop could be an Insane Cop? Because a Paranoid Cop would only ever yield suspicious results on anyone. If we could have an Insane Cop scenario, I think I’ll shortly do a breakdown on the potential rewards for lynching each of jdthebud, Arthas, or Ereshkigal.
Click to expand...

That's what I meant!
 
How about we don't lynch a confirmed townie? Because that's what I am via the cop check. As for Arthas, the scan result doesn't match my read of him, much like what Eresh said earlier.

@MegaPod You haven't considered a third scenario, which is what I think is happening here: Arthas and I are both town, and the cop's results got screwed up somehow.

However since I know I am town, I feel I must vote for Arthas due to the result.

[Vote] Arthas Menethil

Also if we are considering non-standard cop roles, there's also the confused cop, which gets random results, although I've never seen that in any game ever.
 
jdthebud said:
Also if we are considering non-standard cop roles, there's also the confused cop, which gets random results, although I've never seen that in any game ever
Click to expand...
What would be the point of a confused cop? Aside from the game itself designed to be chaotic purely for fun?
 
Klavier Gavin said:
What would be the point of a confused cop? Aside from the game itself designed to be chaotic purely for fun?
Click to expand...

This is a game with allowed-OC, three JOATs, a vig, at least one cop, and I'm thinking at least one insanifier.

So far, "chaotic purely for fun" is my working theory on what's going on.
 
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