Mafia MCH Multiverse Mafia! ENDGAME (TOWN WIN); 6/16/16

[Pikochu]

Logic dictates that the probability of two millers existing in a 12 player game is highly unlikely.

Makes the assumption that the setup is logical to begin with though. If the setup and/or role alignment isn't logical, then figuring out the setup of this game isn't really worth the time. As mentioned in the first post, roles and alignment assignment are random. The best we can do is present evidence of alignment and corresponding role with game content.

The way to currently settle the miller debate is either lynch both/either Caps and/or DB or rolecop scans their roles. And even then, are we dealing with both town, both scum or scum is hiding within one of them. It's a good cover up for scum to claim miller at this earlier in the game so they can most likely play it off as town if cop reads them as scum. On the other hand, being town, they may not want to waste cops scans. It would be stupid for scum to claim miller early in the game as they are probably going to be lynched in the later phases if we haven't found scum yet.

I don't know what to make of Zexy's kill, though I do find this post interesting:

It could be possible that leetic and Zexy might be allied, yes.

Looks a little scummy to imply that leetic and Zexy are potential scumbuddies upon Zexy's flip. Worth keeping an eye on.

FA brought up some interesting points against him, and the idea of him and DB being scumbuddies is interesting as well.

Here's the thing: if Caps and DB are scumbuddies, why both claim miller so early in the game? Scum would be OMGTS knowing for sure they will be losing two members in the near future. One being scum, likely but I don't two being scum is likely at all because they both claim miller.

 

[jdthebud]

I actually don't think Caps or DB are scum, there doesn't seem to be any good outcomes for the mafia in that scenario. Although it could be a WIFOM strategy (mafia would never do this! ergo, they aren't mafia!), that seems very unlikely to me.

This post is super scummy to me.

Makes the assumption that the setup is logical to begin with though. If the setup and/or role alignment isn't logical, then figuring out the setup of this game isn't really worth the time. As mentioned in the first post, roles and alignment assignment are random. The best we can do is present evidence of alignment and corresponding role with game content.

The way to currently settle the miller debate is either lynch both/either Caps and/or DB or rolecop scans their roles. And even then, are we dealing with both town, both scum or scum is hiding within one of them. It's a good cover up for scum to claim miller at this earlier in the game so they can most likely play it off as town if cop reads them as scum. On the other hand, being town, they may not want to waste cops scans. It would be stupid for scum to claim miller early in the game as they are probably going to be lynched in the later phases if we haven't found scum yet.

First, avocating for 2 likely mislynches or 2 possible wasted checks, given that I can't see a rolecop in this setup with millers in the game.

I don't know what to make of Zexy's kill, though I do find this post interesting:

Looks a little scummy to imply that leetic and Zexy are potential scumbuddies upon Zexy's flip. Worth keeping an eye on.

Zexy getting killed N1 is normal around here, isn't it? I am new but it doesn't seem surprising to me. Also, this post was made by someone who has claimed Restless Spirit, which seems to match their post restriction. It's possible Leggo could be faking it, but not even mentioning the claim in this context does not look good.

Here's the thing: if Caps and DB are scumbuddies, why both claim miller so early in the game? Scum would be OMGTS knowing for sure they will be losing two members in the near future. One being scum, likely but I don't two being scum is likely at all because they both claim miller.

Then why do you talk about lynching and role checking them?

Not a good look for your first post. Thoughts?

 

[Midorikawa]

@Pikochu Why does leggo calling leetic and Zexy scumbuddies look scummy? Please explain.

@jdthebud That theory is part of the reason to suspect Caps, and of course there is also the possibility of one being scum and fakeclaiming miller. Imagine if one of them is a bomb or just wants to avoid possible copchecks. Most of all with no idea of what role could be what alignment, everyone needs to answer to everything. Caps still has things he did that comes off as scummy, and he should answer to that. By that Midorikawa means reply, not get lynched unless he gives everyone more reasons to lynch him.

 

[Leggo]

I SCREAM BOO SCREAM WE ALL SCREAM FOR I-SCREAM!

On mobile atm as I'm going to bed soon.

I only noted leetic and Zexy could be scum buddies as anything is possible.

Then again I'm not surprised if people are skeptical of me being mafia as it would seem great for mafia to claim Restless Spirit.

On regards to Zexy being NK'd, he did look town and was very active which might be why the mafia could have gone after him.

 

[Crystal Onix]

That flip was interesting, what with Zexy defending leetic's post about the vote count. I had a slight scumread on leetic for that post, too, but I don't see scum killing someone humite be defending them as a prob-opal move, so town read on leetic now? Also, after seeing Zexy's role PM, I'm more convinced than ever that there are two millerites in this game.

 

[Midorikawa]

That flip was interesting, what with Zexy defending leetic's post about the vote count. I had a slight scumread on leetic for that post, too, but I don't see scum killing someone humite be defending them as a prob-opal move, so town read on leetic now? Also, after seeing Zexy's role PM, I'm more convinced than ever that there are two millerites in this game.

That's just WIFOM. He protected leetic, this if leetic is scum why would he kill him. That's not evidence of leetics alignment at all.

 

[FinalArcadia]

Makes the assumption that the setup is logical to begin with though. If the setup and/or role alignment isn't logical, then figuring out the setup of this game isn't really worth the time. As mentioned in the first post, roles and alignment assignment are random. The best we can do is present evidence of alignment and corresponding role with game content.

Agreed that we can't really figure out the setup of the game, though I do think there has to be some logic to the setup. If things were truly random, nothing would prevent town from having like a bunch of strongmen or mafia from having all doctors, and I'm not certain that a host would be okay with that. Though yeah, best use of our time is finding scummy posts/intents and working from there.

Here's the thing: if Caps and DB are scumbuddies, why both claim miller so early in the game? Scum would be OMGTS knowing for sure they will be losing two members in the near future. One being scum, likely but I don't two being scum is likely at all because they both claim miller.

My thinking with this is that - if they were scumbuddies, planned beforehand, and read the rules carefully - they could have been wanting to use the possibility of duplicates (and roles being assigned randomly to an alignment) to their advantage. Both could claim and appear to not be working together due to apparently counterclaiming, but in actuality neither claim would condemn the other to being scum and wouldn't be impossible due to the way this game works. In the event that one was lynched, the other would likely be safe for at least a while. Again, I am not saying that I wholly believe this to be true, but I'm not ready to discount the possibility just yet.

-----

However, I do still think that TheCapsFan is the most suspicious player, even aside from the scumbuddy theory. He voted Midorikawa for practically no reason that I can tell, never answered why he did even after myself and a few other people iirc brought it up in posts (but he has posted since then, about the PR power role/post restriction thing). He never explained why he didn't vote Zexy when his posts implied that he had at least a slight scumread on him, and it is possible that he wanted to avoid being responsible for a mislynch now that we know Zexy was town. WIFOM would protect him in killing Zexy since "why kill someone a person who defended them a bit?" Even claiming miller first isn't really helping, because he says that its a common town play to do as miller, but for that very reason, it could also work to scum's advantage if it is expected of town and saves them from copchecks.

VOTE: TheCapsFan

Also, kinda would like to see more from @Hellcrow and also @DrumBeats since the former hasn't posted much at all and the latter has pretty much disappeared since voting Zexy last phase (which also gives me some WIFOM paranoia if I'm being honest). Just hard to read so far.

 

[Sunsette]

I DUNNO, I DON'T FIND CAPS ALL THAT SCUMMY. CLAIMING MILLER FIRST CAN BE A GOOD TOWN MOVE BECAUSE IT CAN PREVENT A MISLYNCH DUE TO A COP CHECK COMING UP SCUM LATER ON, BUT IT'S ALSO A BAD MOVE FOR MAFIA BECAUSE A LOT OF MILLERS GET LYNCHED ON PRINCIPLE. CLAIMING MILLER AT ALL GENERALLY PUTS YOU ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK AND I THINK CAPS WOULD KNOW THAT SINCE THEY SEEM TO BE AN EXPERIENCED PLAYER.

 

[Elieson]

Day 2's V-V-V-Votals

TheCapsFan (2): Midorikawa, FinalArcadia

Voteless Chumps (9): Everyone Else

___________________________________________​

35 hours and 50 minutes remain in phase. With 11 alive, 6 votes will yield a phase-ending hammer. If there is no hammer, there will be no lynch.

 

[PaulTheProtist]

I DUNNO, I DON'T FIND CAPS ALL THAT SCUMMY. CLAIMING MILLER FIRST CAN BE A GOOD TOWN MOVE BECAUSE IT CAN PREVENT A MISLYNCH DUE TO A COP CHECK COMING UP SCUM LATER ON, BUT IT'S ALSO A BAD MOVE FOR MAFIA BECAUSE A LOT OF MILLERS GET LYNCHED ON PRINCIPLE. CLAIMING MILLER AT ALL GENERALLY PUTS YOU ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK AND I THINK CAPS WOULD KNOW THAT SINCE THEY SEEM TO BE AN EXPERIENCED PLAYER.

Recently, Millers have been incredibly powerful (see Monty Python, It's All About ME, or my personal favorite Miller, in Murder She Wrote 2). Scum might've thought the risk is worth the gain in this case.

With that in mind, Vote: TheCapsFan

 

[Qing'e]

Thoughts? I'm not entirely sure of what the situation is here yet >.< But Caps seems to have a wagon building on him, and I do agree with FA's points, so my vote may go there.. Or I might be lost. =p

 

[Midorikawa]

I DUNNO, I DON'T FIND CAPS ALL THAT SCUMMY. CLAIMING MILLER FIRST CAN BE A GOOD TOWN MOVE BECAUSE IT CAN PREVENT A MISLYNCH DUE TO A COP CHECK COMING UP SCUM LATER ON, BUT IT'S ALSO A BAD MOVE FOR MAFIA BECAUSE A LOT OF MILLERS GET LYNCHED ON PRINCIPLE. CLAIMING MILLER AT ALL GENERALLY PUTS YOU ON THE CHOPPING BLOCK AND I THINK CAPS WOULD KNOW THAT SINCE THEY SEEM TO BE AN EXPERIENCED PLAYER.

That makes it an easier claim for him actually. Having experience means you can have an easier time getting away with a fake claim like that since you know exactly the normal reaction. An experienced player can generally talk their way out of it better than a new one.

Thoughts? I'm not entirely sure of what the situation is here yet >.< But Caps seems to have a wagon building on him, and I do agree with FA's points, so my vote may go there.. Or I might be lost. =p

Well there isn't that much to read through. And really there should be enough for you to give your thoughts on. It's a Hammer game. We need activity not being lost. Otherwise the mafia will win because town never kills them and they get a kill every night.

 

[Qing'e]

So I'm not the only one with little idea what to say. >w<
Vote: TheCapsFan
This should move things along a little, I think...?

 

[Sunsette]

I'LL WAIT TO SEE WHAT CAPS HAS TO SAY BEFORE VOTING. I DON'T HAVE ANY REAL READS YET, BUT WE SHOULDN'T GO A SECOND DAY WITHOUT A LYNCH.

 

[jdthebud]

@TheCapsFan Would be nice to get some reaction here...

Personally I don't think he's scum. I'll be looking closely at some of these votes if he flips miller.

 

[Midorikawa]

@TheCapsFan Would be nice to get some reaction here...

Personally I don't think he's scum. I'll be looking closely at some of these votes if he flips miller.

Does this imply that you believe that those of us voting him are doing it only because he claimed miller?

 

[DrumBeats]

An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind

DO NOT HAMMER, I AM COMPILING A WALL RN

 

[Midorikawa]

An eye for an eye makes the whole world blind

DO NOT HAMMER, I AM COMPILING A WALL RN

No one's hammering anything. It's only three votes and this game is disturbingly inactive.

Midorikawa hopes this doesn't become a Bible Mafia 2.0

 

[DrumBeats]

Happiness Towniness is when what you think, what you say, and what you do are in harmony.

You must be Restless Spirit, or have some type of ghost post restriction. 2spooky...

Alright, this will be my last post of the night. Sorry for the minor spam.

Quick assumption based on a ghost post restriction. If Caps is scum, I suspect Leggo to be the scum buddy.

Post restrictions can't even be used to clear people like they can in my game, so what's the point?

Personally, I hate when post restrictions can be. It is borderline nameclaiming and messes with the natural order of the game.

Midorikawa actually has nothing interesting to say because she was waiting on Caps response. She has nothing for once because there is nothing.
Though she can try.

@TheCapsFan Who do you town read? Why do you townread them? Do you have any actual reasoning behind your vote on Midorikawa?

@DrumBeats You really jumped on Zexy for asking someone who's famous for wallposts to post. Do you truly think that's strange or are you grasping at straws?

And there is a but flying by Midorikawa's pc in the dark. It's so annoying.

UNVOTE: FinalArcadia

It was a mix of legitimately suspecting it and wanting to see his reaction to it/hoping it would cause him to provide more thoughts.

I am townreading DrumBeats because of his cla(i)m and reaction, jdthebud because he looks similar to his play in Election Mafia, and Sunsette for pushing the game forward, whereas a mafia player would just sit back, relax, and enjoy a donut or two.



Eww, that's disgusting. D: Almost as bad as wasabi.

Disagree about Sunsette, who has mostly been urging other players to push the game forward imo.

I'm pretty sure that PR meant Post Restriction...I sure hope I don't get killed because of that post.

If I could see a potential Jdthebud/Leggo scumpair based on this too. If Leggo is scum, I would look into JD and Caps more, but the problem is I am mostly town reading Leggo.

Did Midorikawa teach you nothing in The 100 mafia. Relying on meta will bite you in the butt.



Midorikawa thinks you're probably the safest actually. Killing you just gives a cleared townie if you are one since Midorikawa and everyone don't know how the RNG changed up roles. Hopefully not in anyway to insane. Thus you're better off alive for them.


How would scum know that either? They would have to have a night action that they get immediate results on.


Why Midorikawa? No one had presented evidence against her like they did with Caps, and Caps reason for voting her was literally no reason. It was just a random choice. So why? Show Midorikawa and everyone why she is scummier than Caps.

A bit defensive imo when Zexy said already that he did not wish to lynch either but between the two he thought Mido was worse. This reaction does not fit that level of suspicion imo.

But why Midorikawa over Caps? Share with everyone so they can use it come the update if they feel they also want to lynch Midorikawa.

Am I the only one that gets pinged hard by this? Midori posted this just a bit before Zexy died, and this post feels like Midori knows Zexy was going to die, and wanted to be able to defend against the rest of his opinions before his death. Why would he need to share it for future hypothetical use if he was not in danger?

VOTE: TheCapsFan

FA brought up some interesting points against him, and the idea of him and DB being scumbuddies is interesting as well. Also saying you won't be around for the end of phase and leaving a vote with absolutely no reasoning behind it is just strange, especially when it's on a known active player who usually points out basically everything. Gosh this seems like an OMGUS

@returnofMCH so only hammering works right? Thus if the phase ends with one person having like one vote more than another, it's still a no lynch right?

Coming from someone who never voted.

Makes the assumption that the setup is logical to begin with though. If the setup and/or role alignment isn't logical, then figuring out the setup of this game isn't really worth the time. As mentioned in the first post, roles and alignment assignment are random. The best we can do is present evidence of alignment and corresponding role with game content.

The way to currently settle the miller debate is either lynch both/either Caps and/or DB or rolecop scans their roles. And even then, are we dealing with both town, both scum or scum is hiding within one of them. It's a good cover up for scum to claim miller at this earlier in the game so they can most likely play it off as town if cop reads them as scum. On the other hand, being town, they may not want to waste cops scans. It would be stupid for scum to claim miller early in the game as they are probably going to be lynched in the later phases if we haven't found scum yet.

I don't know what to make of Zexy's kill, though I do find this post interesting:



Looks a little scummy to imply that leetic and Zexy are potential scumbuddies upon Zexy's flip. Worth keeping an eye on.



Here's the thing: if Caps and DB are scumbuddies, why both claim miller so early in the game? Scum would be OMGTS knowing for sure they will be losing two members in the near future. One being scum, likely but I don't two being scum is likely at all because they both claim miller.

Don't agree with a lot of the logic here. I would like more explanation on why the potential leetic/Zexy scumpair suggestion being a basis for suspicion.

Agreed that we can't really figure out the setup of the game, though I do think there has to be some logic to the setup. If things were truly random, nothing would prevent town from having like a bunch of strongmen or mafia from having all doctors, and I'm not certain that a host would be okay with that. Though yeah, best use of our time is finding scummy posts/intents and working from there.

My thinking with this is that - if they were scumbuddies, planned beforehand, and read the rules carefully - they could have been wanting to use the possibility of duplicates (and roles being assigned randomly to an alignment) to their advantage. Both could claim and appear to not be working together due to apparently counterclaiming, but in actuality neither claim would condemn the other to being scum and wouldn't be impossible due to the way this game works. In the event that one was lynched, the other would likely be safe for at least a while. Again, I am not saying that I wholly believe this to be true, but I'm not ready to discount the possibility just yet.

-----

However, I do still think that TheCapsFan is the most suspicious player, even aside from the scumbuddy theory. He voted Midorikawa for practically no reason that I can tell, never answered why he did even after myself and a few other people iirc brought it up in posts (but he has posted since then, about the PR power role/post restriction thing). He never explained why he didn't vote Zexy when his posts implied that he had at least a slight scumread on him, and it is possible that he wanted to avoid being responsible for a mislynch now that we know Zexy was town. WIFOM would protect him in killing Zexy since "why kill someone a person who defended them a bit?" Even claiming miller first isn't really helping, because he says that its a common town play to do as miller, but for that very reason, it could also work to scum's advantage if it is expected of town and saves them from copchecks.

VOTE: TheCapsFan

Also, kinda would like to see more from @Hellcrow and also @DrumBeats since the former hasn't posted much at all and the latter has pretty much disappeared since voting Zexy last phase (which also gives me some WIFOM paranoia if I'm being honest). Just hard to read so far.

Townreading this post, it all feels genuine. Only thing I don't like here is critique of Caps's vote when FA posted at EoD with no vote.

Thoughts? I'm not entirely sure of what the situation is here yet >.< But Caps seems to have a wagon building on him, and I do agree with FA's points, so my vote may go there.. Or I might be lost. =p

So I'm not the only one with little idea what to say. >w<
Vote: TheCapsFan
This should move things along a little, I think...?

Both of these posts are dull and lack content. These are your first posts, and you are a great player, so I expect some thoughts/opinions.

Tl;Dr

Possible pairs:
Caps/Leggo
JD/Leggo

Probable scum:
Mido - Bad interactions with Zexy predeath

Maybe scum:
Caps - One of two millers which is still weird. Potential scum/scum interactions with Leggo
Hellcrow - First posts very content void from a player I've come to expect better things from

Notable Nulls:
Leggo - Actions feel genuine but has two possible scum/scum interactions.

Town:
-FinalArcadia - Reads seem very genuine. Plenty of conspiracy theories that seem to come from an uninformed mind.

Vote: Midorikawa

 

[DrumBeats]

No one's hammering anything. It's only three votes and this game is disturbingly inactive.

Midorikawa hopes this doesn't become a Bible Mafia 2.0

4/6 votes needed actually.