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COMPLETED //Game Thread// Paragon: Rise of New World Order

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I'd like to take a closer look at the DrumBeats lynch.

Doctor Floptopus: First post: enters, makes a joke, gives a warning of her inactivity, restates Hellcrow's point, leaves. Gives a slight indication that she sides with Hellcrow, which is later reinforced by her second post. Second post: quotes several posts and gives brief replies. I wish she had provided more thoughts on everyone instead of just singling out people. Flop voted for Drum but said she wasn't sure where to stand with him. Yet she voted for him anyway. I think this was a reckless vote, because she left a vague and ambiguous post and vote knowing she likely wouldn't be able to make it back before EoD, possibly to avoid having to explain herself or leaving room to cover/justify her actions. I think she should have made a more substantial post if she was only going to show up for them so we could get a better read on her. The vote on Drum was very well timed, right between two votes; the one that started the wagon and the one that finished it off. All of this behavior reminds me all too well of Flop in SWRMM, when I was on the scum team with her and she used her inactivity to sly under the radar until the very end of the game and also manage to get the lynches she wanted without having to explain herself very much. Flop's inactivity as it applies to Drum's lynch is really hurting town because it's potentially letting scum slip under the radar and I want to ensure that doesn't happen again.

Jolty Febe: I've already mentioned the flaws in her reasoning, and I still don't understand her actions. She first became suspicious of Drum from something that Drum didn't even do, and has stuck ardently with that initial interaction. It kind of sounded like she was taking Zexy's policy lynching idea and trying to carry it out, whereas Zexy soon dropped it. She continued to play the game and interact with everyone, but remained steadfast in her vote on me to try to get to Drum as she claimed. Then when the Drum wagon started to build up again near EoD she switches to Drum directly to clinch the lynch. I'm still conflicted as to whether this course of action was just weak townie behavior or actual scummy behavior. I did like the tone of some of her posts, but I'm still offput by her confusing logic. @Jolty Febe I'd really like to hear what you plan to do now that you got the results of the lynch you wanted. Did you find the information you were looking for?

Hellcrow: Drum posted his thoughts on every player, but Hellcrow felt he was being unjustly attacked and tunneled, which admittedly did lead into a tunnel and the subsequent Drum/Hellcrow feud. Hellcrow was being quite defensive here, responding to almost everything Drum had to say to him. It's actually ironic, the more Drum called out Hellcrow for being defensive, the more defensive Hellcrow became. At some point it looked to me like his behavior shifted from being defensive to outright frustrated. His vote wasn't OMGUS-level, but I think there was some general resentment for Drum contained in that vote. Hellcrow could go either way: overly-defensive scum or a tryhard townie who gets frustrated when he tries to contribute but people don't listen to him and/or attack him for it. Leaning towards the latter because this also seems to be the case with his interactions with people other than Drum (mainly JayDee and leetic), but won't count out the former.

Overall, I'm still surprised that this lynch even happened. Drum did not do anything particularly scummy to warrant the lynch; certainly not moreso than some other players. I think the lynch was a way for scum to get rid of a strong town player in lieu of their lack of a night kill.

All three who voted for Drum look scummy, but both scum piling onto the same relatively small wagon would be too obvious and poor play on their part. I do think there's at least one scum in that pile however. Order of scum speculation: Flop, Jolty Febe, Hellcrow. Other suspects are Pikochu for conveniently sheeping both Zexy and Drum and, and JayDee for his back-and-forth jumping-from-player-to-player behavior that I didn't make much of before Zexy's analysis at the start of this phase which brought up some good points. Zexy and Caps are both town reads for their post quality, contributions, and general tone. Leetic's being recklessly offensive but that's been his town meta for a while now and it's ended up getting him lynched more than once. Of course, I should keep in mind that since this is solely a meta read it's a relatively weak and unreliable read. Null read on lovandra.

Of those three who voted for Drum, I find Flop to be the scummiest based on my analysis above so vote: Doctor Floptopus @Elieson
 
As if all my previous evidence wasn't enough, Hellcrow participated in DrumBeats's lynch. So

VOTE: Hellcrow

@Elieson
 
Worst case scenario for town (we always mislynch)

we start with 11 players, 9 town, 2 scum

N1 N2 don’t have nightkills. This means we can mislynch 3 times in a row.

By Day 4 we would have 4 dead townies. 7 players: 5 town, 2 scum

Mislynch. Nightkill n4.

By Day 5 we have 5 players alive. 3 town 2 scum. LYLO.

THIS MEANS WE CAN AFFORD 4 MISLYNCHES BEFORE LOSING

Worse case scenario for town assuming 1 No Lynch

D1: 11p, No Lynch

D2: 11p, Mislynch

D3: 10p, Mislynch

N3: 9p, Kill

D4: 8p, Mislynch

D5: 7p, Kill

D6: 6p, MILO

IN THIS SCENARIO WE CAN ONLY AFFORD 3 MISLYNCHES BEFORE LOSING

You get it why we should never No Lynch now?
I just wanted you to give detail, your wording was slightly confusing. I wouldn't want a no lynch in any game, never mind one like this where our vote is our only weapon.
That's the reason I voted Drum. He was, in my eyes, the most likely to be scum. It may not have been a massive lead, but all the votes were tied and I wanted a lynch. I wasn't going to be around for EOD (which was only 2 hours away anyway), so I had to make a decision. I chose Drum.

I'll do some more reading now.
 
Also @Jolty Febe; ... You were also one of the people to wagon to DrumBeats late…
Do you think there's the possibility of a relationship between Jolty and Hellcrow here, since Jolty cast the deciding vote between Drum and Hellcrow? What's your opinion on Hellcrow?
I'd like to take a closer look at the DrumBeats lynch.

Doctor Floptopus: First post: enters, makes a joke, gives a warning of her inactivity, restates Hellcrow's point, leaves. Gives a slight indication that she sides with Hellcrow, which is later reinforced by her second post. Second post: quotes several posts and gives brief replies. I wish she had provided more thoughts on everyone instead of just singling out people. Flop voted for Drum but said she wasn't sure where to stand with him. Yet she voted for him anyway. I think this was a reckless vote, because she left a vague and ambiguous post and vote knowing she likely wouldn't be able to make it back before EoD, possibly to avoid having to explain herself or leaving room to cover/justify her actions. I think she should have made a more substantial post if she was only going to show up for them so we could get a better read on her. The vote on Drum was very well timed, right between two votes; the one that started the wagon and the one that finished it off. All of this behavior reminds me all too well of Flop in SWRMM, when I was on the scum team with her and she used her inactivity to sly under the radar until the very end of the game and also manage to get the lynches she wanted without having to explain herself very much. Flop's inactivity as it applies to Drum's lynch is really hurting town because it's potentially letting scum slip under the radar and I want to ensure that doesn't happen again.
In regards to the two bolded statements, I'm inactive. This isn't a lie, or an excuse. I didn't have time to do any more than read through the thread once, so could only point out what stood out to me.
 
Reads Part 1 (since I'm about to eat) based on isolation of each user.
1. Zexy: Pretty obviously townie, has been helpful as usual. Strong town read.
2. Lovandra: Only one content post, which has a slight town vibe, but not much to go off. Slight town read.
3. Slife: Very analytical and reasoned. Town Read.
4. Hellcrow: Playing to his town meta. IMLTHO, hasn't really been that defensive, more irritated. Town read.
5. Leetic: Tunnelling Hellcrow, seems to be ignoring everything else in the game. Scum lean.
 
I am aware of that but TheCapsFan is saying that me buddying with 7JayDee7 is scummy when we simply agreed with each at a few points in the game, and right now TheCapsFan and Zexy are "buddying" by agreeing by that same logic.
I don’t believe you buddy with 7JD7. As a result, that would only be a valid point for Caps. Still, we can’t afford to never use buddying for reading people just because we buddied at least once with some player. Not all buddying is scummy.
Okay. Firstly, I apologised for accidentally thinking you were scum Zexy. So I wouldn't count that as evidence. But you have very good points. I've been told to always look for changing your reads on people. I put some pressure (probably too much, sorry Hellcrow) because I was trying to see some reactions. After getting some reactions, I change my vote. I don't think that buddying is scum either. So that's why I don't suspect you.

Also, someone said earlier that I claimed I wasn't using the newbie card, but was. I actually said I'll stop using the newbie card, which is what I believe has happened. I admit that I did use it. But I'm trying to stop now.

I have qustioned a lot of people to get a good idea of what was happening; I'm trying to be as analytical as possible.
For all I know you could be scum who tried to use that as an excuse. You probably wouldn’t ever realize you were wrong if I hadn’t called you out… or if scum, you could’ve done your job of trying to push a lynch on me, but dammit, I didn’t let you… The fact you only did it after Pikochu voted for me as well still stands.
Noted, if it’s your mentor that suggests such a playstyle to you I can give it to you as a plus. Besides most people don’t seem willing to lynch you so I may have to change my vote in order to actually push a more efficient cause for now.

More tryharding from Slife, nice! I agree with almost all of his points, and may even vote Flop myself seeing how 7JD7 leads nowhere…

I don’t like leetic because his behavior was already ambiguous and he keeps pushing Hellcrow which doesn’t help thing.

Next up, @Doctor Floptopus; I’ll be mentioning you all the time because your inactivity may make you miss my posts about you… I’ve been townreading Hellcrow all this time, I don’t think the team would be exactly Jolty + Hellcrow tbh. Although Jolty can be scum who picked DB who was more active/loud/influencial than Hellcrow who they think may be an easy lynch.

I think I’ll play the pressure-aggressive card on leetic who has played it a lot before. I'd like to see some more detailed contributions from you, @leetic; I see some excessive tunneling of Hellcrow and a general lack of reasoning to your votes. So @Elieson;
##UNVOTE: 7JayDee7
##VOTE: leetic
 
Forgot to include a reads list that shows better where I stand:

Town
lovandra
Slife
Hellcrow
TheCapsFan
Still scummy
leetic
Doctor Floptopus
Pikochu
7JayDee7
Jolty Febe
 
@Zexy, you made a wallpost overnight and did a day-by-day analysis of the worst case lynch scenarios, yet I'm the tryhard? :p On a serious note, do you find it strange how JayDee's apologizing to you for thinking you're scum (and for pressuring Hellcrow)? You're certainly not cleared yet; no one is. It's almost as if he knows somehow that you are indeed town and once you confronted him he backs down knowing he's running the risky of trying to paint a good looking townie.

Meh. Pikochu looks the worst. Don't trust Hellcrow or Slife. TheCapsFan could be either or.

Don't have much to contribute
Any chance you want to explain your reasoning for one, if not all, of these reads? How is it that you suddenly don't have much to say? Zexy, Caps, and I have all made comments about you. Do you not have responses for any of them? How about a plan for Day 2 or a reflection on Day 1 besides "I'm sorry for lynching Drum". Some insight as to how we can use the information we've obtained so far might be a good discussion topic as well. It's hard to believe you're having trouble finding things to talk about. Why bother even mentioning that you have not much to contribute?

Unvote: Doctor Floptopus
Vote: Jolty Febe

@Elieson

Flop at least responded to my post and is acknowledging her actions and current situation. She's trying to contribute to the discussion now, but I can't say the same for you. The least you could do is address my questions.
 
Well @Slife; remember SWRMM role PMs? So yeah :p All of his behaviour is strange, and yes if scum I can definitely seem him backing down because he knows I'm town and can't get a way to lynch me.

I agree with your points on Jolty as well. Would rather push leetic at the same time, but @Jolty Febe; if your answer to Slife and reaction to my comments aren't satisfactory enough I may change my vote to you...
 
I've reread almost everything and still have no idea who is town who is scum.

For now, I get slight town vibe from Slife. And only them, the others get neutral read so far..

I will be more active, I forget this game have 36h rule instead of 48h.

All the argument about Flop is... I don't think will lead us through anywhere except to vote patterns to be analyzed. If she is flipped town, Zexy is on top of my scum read. Mislynch can be happened on every games, but he softly pressure suspicious to Drumby on early stage of D1, and he hardly pressure on Flop now.
(I'm also still not buying his whole argument about me 99% cleared just because my vote to the host.)

7d7 and Jolty play good as newbie but we have confirmed mentor here so maybe they just good because of the mentor (usually if someone new is good, I will suspect them to have scumbuddy as mentor but can't use it here). So neutral read so far.

Hellcrow is aggressive, I forget that I've answered your question or not. I recall typing on the answer but I maybe sleep on the process so I will type it one more time:

My whole reason to vote for host because there is chace, slightly but still a chance, for host=scum scenario to be true. I'm aware about that to be a super stupid vote but there is a need to bring it clear as early as possible. I bring it on thread instead it privately so it will be clear for everyone and not just for me... It just a simple mechanical check about the nature of the game.
 
leetic seems to tunnel Hellcrow a bit too much. And his whole activity really focusing only on Hellcrow existence (this will be a very nice story in another realm a.k.a my head :3). Still I can see how he get a scumread from Hellcrow but generally I still need to reread more to make place them on my scum or town read.
 
Reads part 2:
1. Pikochu: One post, not much to go on. Very much on the fence. I can see this going either way, but for now I'm saying misled townie.
2. TheCapsFan: Seems to be contributing well, making good points and thought-out posts. Town read.
3. 7JayDee7: Jumping and sheeping on a lot of reads, seems suspicious of nearly everybody. Making mistakes and backtracking. Scum lean.
4. Doctor Floptopus: The Supreme lord of all scum. Lynch immediately.
5. Jolty Febe: Seems to be making sense and trying to scumhunt, did a u-turn on reads in the last post though, which is odd. Still, town lean for now.
this will be a very nice story in another realm a.k.a my head :3
Ship Ship Ship <3

Out of my two scum leans, I'll
##Vote: 7JayDee7
because it's the stronger of the two.
 
Life replaces Pikochu
@Jolty Febe; Please give us some more detail in your thought processes, like Slife and I asked…

If she is flipped town, Zexy is on top of my scum read.
Why @lovandra; ? I am unsure about Flop but was never overly aggressive against her.
Hellcrow is aggressive
I would say passive-aggressive, but that’s how town!Hellcrow’s supposed to be.

Still standing on my lov townread although I don’t agree with her points.

Flop’s reads look better, the only thing that still concerns me is that she could be re-stating stuff already said. The fact she agrees with Slife at most points could be an attempt of hers to make him take his vote away… I like how she voted 7JD7 though, which lets me switch to him and push if need be.

Still waiting on leetic before I change my vote.
 
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