Mafia Holiday Mafia 2017: Endgame: The Ghosts of Kwanzaas Past 15/1/18

[Elieson]

GUH ok that certainly happened. HyperAnalysis of people who kept their votes on Labrev despite posting after things were switching is mandatory...but I'm at work right now so you'll get that from me later.

 

[Maniacal Engineer]

Spoiler

1. @MegaPod
2. @The Light
3. @jdthebud
4. @Max1996
5. @CheffOfGames
6. @Midorikawa
7. @Labrev
8. @AussieEevee
9. @Pika_pika42
10. @Elieson
11. @Derpghost
12. @Elementar
13. @Pikochu
14. @TheCapsFan
@RainbowSkittles

Day 2: Presents of Mind

In the darkness of night, people moved, concealed by the shadows.
To an icy mountaintop where the harshest of winds always blows.
A Pocket Monster was struck down during a special delivery.
Though in the coldness of the mountaintop, the mafia was shivery.

The following morning, town found their presents hadn't arrived.
Alas, through the first night, the present giver had not survived.
And this puts the heroes at a significant disadvantage at this hour.
For it seems as though they had lost both healing and killing power.

Spoiler: Derpghost was killed

Dear Derpghost,

Delibird, the Delivery Pokémon. Delibird's most unique attack is giving presents. However, some of these presents have been known to explode. Sometimes, Delibird's presents can actually restore energy to its opponents.

You are Pokemon number 225, also known as Delibird, the Delivery Pokemon.

An Ice/Flying type, Delibird prefers to live in colder environments. It carries food around wrapped in its tail, which it has been known to share with weary travelers climbing mountains. Interestingly enough, many of Delibird's Pokedex entries specifically mention it living on Mt. Everest, a real world location, though it was changed in later dex entries. Delibird appeared in the Pikachu short, Delibird's Dilemma, under the ownership of Santa Claus, himself, where it was shot down out of the sky by Ash Ketchum's Totodile. Pikachu and the others helped Delibird find the presents it lost, saving Christmas. Of course, since it was their own fault that Christmas was in jeopardy in the first place, that was only fair.

Speaking of presents, your signature attack, and the only move you ever learn by leveling up aside from Drill Peck, is Present. In-game it has a 40% chance of damaging its target with a 40 Base Power move, 40% of hitting with an 80 Base Power move, 10% chance of hitting with a 120 Base Power move, and 20% chance of healing a quarter of its target's health. Simplifying this, you are the town's Present Giver. Each night, you can PM the hosts: Give a Present to <player>, and you will have a 70% chance of shooting that player with a standard Vigilante shot, 10% chance of hitting that player with a Strongman Vigilante shot, and 20% chance of protecting your target.
You are allied with the Holiday Heroes, and you win when all hostile factions have been eliminated.

Derpghost had perished, becoming a literal specter.
A real pity that he had not had a protector.
But now the game must move onward and carry on.
It will continue until all the members of one side are gone.

Now the sun has risen, and it is time to begin anew.
For the Heroes, this will not be their Waterloo.
This game has just begun, and it is far from over.
The Scoundrels need to work to complete their takeover.

It is now Day 2. Phase ends in 48 hours at 11:00PM U.S. Central Standard Time on 23/12/17.

 

[Derpghost]

...Well, at least I can safely say my death wasn't my fault for once.


Good luck, town.

 

[Snowy]

Anyone got any information from last night?

 

[Elieson]

I can kinda see where MegaPod was reeeeeeeeally stretching out Labrev's "I'm reluctant to vote" with his own statement of "Labrev refuses to vote". I'd like to hope it's intown fighting.

##Vote TheCapsFan

This still reaks, sorry man.

@Midorikawa I believe you owe the game some CapsFan pressure after yesterphase. Time to deliver.

 

[Kharixi]

Half of my theory is dead. Wonder if the other half would still hold up?

 

[Elementar]

I never feel bad for any vote I make, because I never make a vote without intent.

@AussieEevee I've been reading, and rereading, and you know what?

##Unvote
##Vote TheCapsFan

His posts in particular regarding Labrev just seem off compared to the others. @Labrev , thanks for being the butt of my pressure. I'm pleased with the results.

Still feeling Derpghost too, but I wanna see if I can chalk anything up regarding his play as newbtown or newbscum before I apply pressure with my mighty mighty finger pointing.

Tbh, I rethinking this. This seems awfully quick and unjustified in relation to Labrev. I agreed that Caps looked a little weird, but I didn't think it was enough for Elieson to make a change based on how much they were on Labrev's case. Labrev still got lynched, and all Elieson did was get off the wagon in an attempt to look more towny. Elieson posted a meme to draw attention away from the fact that all he said about switching from Labrev to Caps was that he 'changed' his mind. Getting off the wagon before it is shown to be a mislynch Elieson?

VOTE: Elieson

 

[MegaPod]

Hmm, Elementar does make a point...I did find it odd when Elieson jumped off the boat like that even when I still felt Labrev was worth the lynch.

Another player I'm a bit suspicious of is jd. His last post seemed like he didn't want to pick a side between Labrev and Elie, almost like he expects the mislynch and wants to appear right about Labrev being a bad lynch but also avoid blaming Elieson if possible? I have a potential jd/Elieson scumbuddy theory bouncing around my head because of this.

 

[jdthebud]

Hmm, Elementar does make a point...I did find it odd when Elieson jumped off the boat like that even when I still felt Labrev was worth the lynch.

Another player I'm a bit suspicious of is jd. His last post seemed like he didn't want to pick a side between Labrev and Elie, almost like he expects the mislynch and wants to appear right about Labrev being a bad lynch but also avoid blaming Elieson if possible? I have a potential jd/Elieson scumbuddy theory bouncing around my head because of this.

I wouldn't say that I expected a mislynch, but Elieson's reasons for initially voting Labrev felt forced and I didn't understand why there was so much pressure on Labrev, most of which was led by Elieson.

However, I don't like that Mido kept her vote on Labrev when her reason was that he wasn't contributing. Labrev then contributed pretty well after that point but Mido never changed her vote. My view is that she kept coming up with reasons to justify staying on him instead of looking at anyone else.

Not sure of Elieson, but I'm still scumreading Mido. I have my doubts that they are the same alignment though.

[Vote] Midorikawa

 

[Elieson]

Tbh, I rethinking this. This seems awfully quick and unjustified in relation to Labrev. I agreed that Caps looked a little weird, but I didn't think it was enough for Elieson to make a change based on how much they were on Labrev's case. Labrev still got lynched, and all Elieson did was get off the wagon in an attempt to look more towny. Elieson posted a meme to draw attention away from the fact that all he said about switching from Labrev to Caps was that he 'changed' his mind. Getting off the wagon before it is shown to be a mislynch Elieson?

VOTE: Elieson

Perhaps you didn't read any of my other posts, especially my next post that was uninterrupted, which is a case that Caps has yet to even respond to, outlining a thank you to Labrev for being my pressure boi, and my very next post outlining why Caps = Scum.

[UNVOTE]: Pikapika

[VOTE]: Labrev

I'm willing to test this theory. I agree that confirming for the sake of confirming, and then saying that you're going to do nothing is more pointless than a random vote especially if there is some material before that you can at least look at and read.

I feel like you're trying too hard to apply [borrowed] logic to something in such a way that, if things go wrong, you have a fallback of "well phase was ending soon and it looked like a reasonable wagon to hop on" aka, that's how your vote reads and it's really bad. The vote itself isn't bad, but the application of your case comes off as way too accepting.

Next time you wanna misrep me, at least read everything first

His last post seemed like he didn't want to pick a side between Labrev and Elie, almost like he expects the mislynch and wants to appear right about Labrev being a bad lynch but also avoid blaming Elieson if possible?

Are you even considering that he did at one point, flat out try to defend Labrev? JD is being pretty passive, but considering the timing, the only way I would've pictured him as definitive scum through this is if Labrev had flipped scum. I've actually got a gut thought on something involving JD but I'm not gambling on it yet. All his post did was make me look bad though with "I think Elie is acting kind of brash, even for Elie" (which if any of you all know me, ha), and "I think he's town but has a bad case" is anything but, especially with a phase extension made just a few hrs prior to his post and votals seperating Labrev and Cheff by exactly one vote. Oddly enough, him not voting there makes me think he's more town. It's really boiling down to a gut-town read on the guy.

 

[Elieson]

omg that timing. Also, I evidently can't attach images.

 

[Elieson]

I'm preparing my next push, and boy it's a doozy, but it needs to wait until at least the rest of the other half of the game posts.

 

[Elementar]

@AussieEevee, I did.

 

[Lone_Garurumon]

Mid-Phase Votal Time!

TheCapsFan (1): Elieson
Elieson (1): Elementar
Midorikawa (1): jdthebud

Phase ends in 24 hours at 11:00PM U.S. Central Standard Time on 23/12/17.

 

[Lone_Garurumon]

Whoopsies, forgot to ping you all for that one ^^;

Spoiler: Pings

1. @MegaPod
2. @The Light
3. @jdthebud
4. @Max1996
5. @CheffOfGames
6. @Midorikawa
7. @Labrev
8. @AussieEevee
9. @Pika_pika42
10. @Elieson
11. @Derpghost
12. @Elementar
13. @Pikochu
14. @TheCapsFan
@RainbowSkittles

 

[Snowy]

@AussieEevee, I did.

It helps if you quote the post you're replying to.

 

[TheCapsFan]

I read back a bit. Sped through the last two pages the first time I read through them because it was late and I wanted to sleep, which is why I didnt post. But it's already way too late anyway so why not post now, I guess.

But if we don';t know who scum is then lynching something rewarding is better than a mislynch.

The fact that Mido agreed with the idea to Lynch host on D1 is odd. Town’s greatest power is the vote and with her essentially pushing for its waste, it doesn’t give good vibes. Not what I would expect from an experienced town player who I’m sure has not only played numerous mafia games where the waste of D1 lead to the downfall of the town, but also several games where lynching the host has produced unfavorable results.

In correspondence with this I'm calling into question AE’s vote on Derpghost in post 89. Both derpghost and Mido advocated for host Lynch and though I disagree with the whole idea of lynching the host, I’d rather vote the more experienced player who has a greater ability of leading people on rather than the newer player who may not entirely know what he’s doing. Bonus scum points for the fact that it was a post after the first vote on Derpghost, and Derpghost ended up town.

It spurs discussion at least. For example, Caps found something to talk about thanks in part to the ridiculous building host wagon earlier.

The "ridiculous" wagon which, mind you, you were also a part of. Get your story straight.

Duly noted.
Unvote: CheffOfGames

Vote: MegaPod

I don't like this sheep, it really reeks of scum to me. Just based on the time of the vote and the fact that Max just magically seems to trust Labrev for some reason despite him getting most of the pressure throughout the entire phase.

I feel like you're trying too hard to apply [borrowed] logic to something in such a way that, if things go wrong, you have a fallback of "well phase was ending soon and it looked like a reasonable wagon to hop on" aka, that's how your vote reads and it's really bad. The vote itself isn't bad, but the application of your case comes off as way too accepting.

At least I introduced a reason for my vote rather than just submitting to the will of another like Max did.

With that I will vote on my conscious. [VOTE]: Max1996 Why did he just whimsically vote on whoever Labrev thought was scum?

Overall in addition to Max's oddities, I find Mido out of character and my bad feelings about Pikapika haven't changed, probably since he hasn't shown up since I attacked him, pretty much.

With regards to the Elieson case I feel like it has its biggest strength in the argument that Elie used his vote on me to get off of a mislynch easily. There's also the fact that the three people that Elie has called out directly, Labrev, Derpghost, and I, are all confirmed to be town, but that could be besides the point.

 

[MegaPod]

The "ridiculous" wagon which, mind you, you were also a part of. Get your story straight

I recognize that I was being ridiculous.

There's also the fact that the three people that Elie has called out directly, Labrev, Derpghost, and I, are all confirmed to be town, but that could be besides the point.

You're confirmed town? Did I miss something?

The fact that Mido agreed with the idea to Lynch host on D1 is odd. Town’s greatest power is the vote and with her essentially pushing for its waste, it doesn’t give good vibes. Not what I would expect from an experienced town player who I’m sure has not only played numerous mafia games where the waste of D1 lead to the downfall of the town, but also several games where lynching the host has produced unfavorable results.

This is actually a good point to consider.

 

[Max1996]

I don't like this sheep, it really reeks of scum to me. Just based on the time of the vote and the fact that Max just magically seems to trust Labrev for some reason despite him getting most of the pressure throughout the entire phase.

I do suppose it does if you haven't played with me enough to know sheeping is kinda my meta, being NAI.

 

[MegaPod]

Thing is, Max, even if you are Town, it's really not a pro-town habit to be in, and you're probably gonna find yourself getting lynched for it more often than not.

Anyways, I'll try to reread the thread later and see who I believe and who I wanna lynch next.